Mr.Cocky! wrote:Vlad's career high HR's is 44, and that's when he was playing in Montreal, which has a better hitters park than every team except Colorado and Texas. No way he goes over 40 this season. And if he indeed takes it easy on his legs 2 or 3 months, his steals will all but vanish. Like I said, he is a 35/12 guy with an above .300BA.
Over the past two years Vlad has hit 35 HR at home and 29 HR away. He did however have an easier time getting RBIs at home.
Brendo wrote:I'm not fighting for Manny's honor, but what makes Vlad better if the steals go away?
Good call with the Ramirez comparison Brendo. The two are definately comparable if you take away Vlad's steals. I suppose blind love could be one of the only reasons to value Guerrero more.
The thing is, Vlad is not going put in another less than 10 stolen bases season (at least in 2004). Shoot, last year he snagged 9 stolen bases (playing injured) and he only had 394 at bats. Even if his legs are sore for the first few months of the season, there are some times when stealing a base can put wind in a team's sails and help them take over the game.
Even the aging Barry Bonds managed to swipe 7 bags last season. He made sure to pick his spots because stealing a bag could make him sore for the next day or so. Vlad is going to find pleanty of chances when stealing a base could bring the momentum to his team. I will be surprised if this 28 year old does not finish 2004 with at least 20 stolen bases.