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Postby Brendo » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:40 pm

I'm not fighting for Manny's honor, but what makes Vlad better if the steals go away?
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Postby Mr.Cocky! » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:42 pm

Vlad's career high HR's is 44, and that's when he was playing in Montreal, which has a better hitters park than every team except Colorado and Texas. No way he goes over 40 this season. And if he indeed takes it easy on his legs 2 or 3 months, his steals will all but vanish. Like I said, he is a 35/12 guy with an above .300BA.
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Postby GSes » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:45 pm

Vlad has a home in Anaheim. He will be happy there. They have domincan players which is important there. He isnt going to have to travel to play home games. You see where I'm going. The fans are going to love him and appreciate him. For the first time in Vlad's career he has a home. By the way he has protection and is hitting an a explosive lineup.

Guerrero will be a stud.

I think

340 avg
45 HR
130 RBI
110 Runs
20 SB
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Postby davus » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:45 pm

Jer19G wrote:
Brendo wrote:my thinking is, if the SB's dry up (see Sosa, Sammy)...Vlad starts to look a lot like Manny Ramirez....good average, HR, RBI.....but now an injury risk hanging over him and playing in that cavern in Anaheim for the first time, in a new league no less.....he presented a lot of risk to me


To me he is an all around better offensive player than Manny.


Manny is DEFINITELY better than Vlad offensively. The ONLY thing that Vlad has over Manny is the SB and fewer K's. Manny is better in OBP, Slugging, RBI's and their Avg's are pretty much identical with Manny having a higher peak.

In what way is Vlad better offensively? And more directly, how his he all around better offensively? !+)
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Postby Brendo » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:49 pm

GSes wrote:Vlad has a home in Anaheim. He will be happy there. They have domincan players which is important there. He isnt going to have to travel to play home games. You see where I'm going. The fans are going to love him and appreciate him. For the first time in Vlad's career he has a home. By the way he has protection and is hitting an a explosive lineup.

Guerrero will be a stud.

I think

340 avg
45 HR
130 RBI
110 Runs
20 SB


this is why I got a lot for him in the trade

he traveled to play home games at a little league field

he had dominican players and wanted to stay "Home" (where his family still lives) in Montreal

and orlando cabrera and jose vidro may not be the greatest, but he wasn't by himself in that lineup

.320 AVG, 35 HR, 120 RBI, 10 SB
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Postby shortsavage » Mon Feb 16, 2004 4:54 pm

Mr.Cocky! wrote:Vlad's career high HR's is 44, and that's when he was playing in Montreal, which has a better hitters park than every team except Colorado and Texas. No way he goes over 40 this season. And if he indeed takes it easy on his legs 2 or 3 months, his steals will all but vanish. Like I said, he is a 35/12 guy with an above .300BA.
Over the past two years Vlad has hit 35 HR at home and 29 HR away. He did however have an easier time getting RBIs at home.

Brendo wrote:I'm not fighting for Manny's honor, but what makes Vlad better if the steals go away?
Good call with the Ramirez comparison Brendo. The two are definately comparable if you take away Vlad's steals. I suppose blind love could be one of the only reasons to value Guerrero more.


The thing is, Vlad is not going put in another less than 10 stolen bases season (at least in 2004). Shoot, last year he snagged 9 stolen bases (playing injured) and he only had 394 at bats. Even if his legs are sore for the first few months of the season, there are some times when stealing a base can put wind in a team's sails and help them take over the game.

Even the aging Barry Bonds managed to swipe 7 bags last season. He made sure to pick his spots because stealing a bag could make him sore for the next day or so. Vlad is going to find pleanty of chances when stealing a base could bring the momentum to his team. I will be surprised if this 28 year old does not finish 2004 with at least 20 stolen bases.
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon Feb 16, 2004 7:19 pm

Jer19G wrote:To me he is an all around better offensive player than Manny.


Career OPS+

Manny 157
Vlad 146

I think Vlad runs alot less, 10-15 sb.
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Postby Guest » Mon Feb 16, 2004 8:52 pm

is vlad really that fast?
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Postby mtarail » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:00 pm

I agree with Trevis. 20-25 sb's and around 40 jacks. To address a few points:

1) Montreal=hitters park?

2) With Anderson/Guillen/Glaus etc, Vlad will have more protection next year than he's ever had in Montreal

3) Vlad hits balls off of his shoelaces. Is facing pitchers in a different league really going to slow him down? I don't think so.

4) Whoever said that if you take away Vlad's steals you have Manny has a pretty good point. But I think Vlad will grab as many bags as Abreu this summer.
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Postby Brendo » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:12 pm

1.Montreal is a hitter's park...look at the stats...puerto rico is even more (even if he didn't play there that much last year

2. no offense to Garrett Anderson, but he had as much lineup protection in Montreal.....Jose Guillen has had one, count em, one good year, and Troy Glaus is more fragile than an American Idol contestant's ego

3. i agree here, dude swings at everything, but still, it could have a (minimal) impact

4. No question he's still more valuable than Abreau, but what made Vlad a top-3 pick was 35+stolen bases....if they go away, so does the value of picking him there again
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