Brandon Webb

[Guinness13]

I would take Webb before the others

[fezzik]

As I stated in an earlier post:

Webb
Nomo
Wolf
Clemens

I don't see many of the arguments for Webb experiencing a sophomore slump very compelling...it's definitely possible, but IMO not very likely...

Firstly, Webb is a sinkerball pitcher...they typically don't slump nearly as much as other pitchers. If their control gets a little off, it doesn't have as much of a negative effect since they rely on so much movement anyway...the only time their going to struggle is if their sinker isn't sinking, but I see no reason for that to happen to Webb.

Secondly, while his era, whip, and record suffered after the break last year (3.33 era in the 2nd half isn't too shabby though), hitters actually batted worse against him and Webb had considerably more K's/IP the second half.

Thirdly, someone wrote that Webb isn't as good because he pitched against such inferior offenses...well, exactly...he's still pitching against the same inferior offenses and inside such pitcher-friendly confines as Pac Bell Park and Dodger Stadium will only continue to help his numbers.

I would have ranked Wolf higher, but his meltdown after the break leaves me a little worried. Was it due to injury? Then I might consider him above Nomo.

[NZF]

[quote="HOOTIE

Willis faded because he had never pitched that many innings before. He had a nice Sept. Webbs only down month was Sept., more a fatigue thing then anything. It doesn't take 4-5 months for hitters to figure out pitchers.

Webb had such a great rookie year, a decrease is expected. However, just because it's the 2nd year isn't a reason. Only 35% of guys decrease their 2nd year.[/quote]

Totally disagree with your comment about Willis. With his deceptive delivery anyone facing him for the first time may well be at a disadvantage until becoming familiar with it. In early July Willis dominated the Cubs in Chicago with 6 shut out innings but a couple of weeks later back in Florida the Cubbies lineup sent him packing very early in the game. I seem to remember he had the Phillies befuddled in July as well but when he pitched to them again in a home and away series later in the year they didn't have the same problems with him. This wearing down talk with him is baloney as well. The guy is a fitness fanatic who has never been injured and pitched 160 innings in Class A in 2002. His pitch counts were higher in August / Sept than they were in May / June last season.

[HOOTIE]

Willis had a 2.94 era in July. He tired some in August. In Sept., with the most innings he threw in a month (37), he had a 2.89 era. His 2nd worst month was May. If they figured him out, why was he so good in July and especially Sept.?

[NZF]

Willis had a 2.94 era in July. He tired some in August. In Sept., with the most innings he threw in a month (37), he had a 2.89 era. His 2nd worst month was May. If they figured him out, why was he so good in July and especially Sept.?

Willis tired some in August yet miraculously he was fresh again in September??? The fatigue excuse is baloney in both their cases.

I never said they figured Willis out. All I said was with the benefit of familiarity he may not be as dominating against players that had previously seen him. 4-5 months or 4-5 weeks it doesn't matter, it has got to be a factor. That is my point with the second season scenario. Sure if they are good enough it doesn't matter how many times they face the same hitter they will still have their measure. I'm not saying either of these guys will not go onto have great MLB careers, I'm just saying expect downside (especially in Webb's case).

The fact that Scott Rolen has had 30 AB's now against the Big Unit doesn't mean his career avg. against him is ever going to climb past the current .167

[HOOTIE]

How do you know fatigue is baloney? It's not uncommon for a young pitcher, Willis was 21, to fatigue later in year.

[NZF]

How do you know fatigue is baloney? It's not uncommon for a young pitcher, Willis was 21, to fatigue later in year.

Once again misquoting. I never said fatigue was baloney fullstop.
Of course fatigue could be a factor with any pitcher. Young old or otherwise, but it is overused as an excuse IMO. As in the Webb and Willis cases I maintain it is baloney.

You keep on contradicting yourself as well. Willis was fatigued late in the year in your opinion, but through all of this so called fatigue he managed to have a 2.89 ERA at the end of the season in September.

[HOOTIE]

How do you know fatigue is baloney? It's not uncommon for a young pitcher, Willis was 21, to fatigue later in year.

Once again misquoting. I never said fatigue was baloney fullstop.
Of course fatigue could be a factor with any pitcher. Young old or otherwise, but it is overused as an excuse IMO. As in the Webb and Willis cases I maintain it is baloney.

You keep on contradicting yourself as well. Willis was fatigued late in the year in your opinion, but through all of this so called fatigue he managed to have a 2.89 ERA at the end of the season in September.

How do you know it's baloney in Webbs or Willis case? Both are real young, with quite a few innings for a rookie. A guy can fatigue out for a period, or get dead arm, then rebound again. No contradiction there.

[HOOTIE]

Webb had such a great rookie year, a decrease is expected. However, just because it's the 2nd year isn't a reason. Only 35% of guys decrease their 2nd year.

35% of hitters or 35% of pitchers?

35% of every player ever. The study didn't break it down by positions.

[NZF]

How do you know fatigue is baloney? It's not uncommon for a young pitcher, Willis was 21, to fatigue later in year.

Once again misquoting. I never said fatigue was baloney fullstop.
Of course fatigue could be a factor with any pitcher. Young old or otherwise, but it is overused as an excuse IMO. As in the Webb and Willis cases I maintain it is baloney.

You keep on contradicting yourself as well. Willis was fatigued late in the year in your opinion, but through all of this so called fatigue he managed to have a 2.89 ERA at the end of the season in September.

How do you know it's baloney in Webbs or Willis case? Both are real young, with quite a few innings for a rookie. A guy can fatigue out for a period, or get dead arm, then rebound again. No contradiction there.

How do you know it isn't? The simple answer is you don't. An opinion just like mine. I seem to recall you said the same thing about Gil Meche. Baloney in his case as well. Funny how I've never heard their million dollar plus salaried managers and GM's sharing your opinion.