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Postby fezzik » Mon Feb 16, 2004 8:09 pm

I'd rank them...


Webb
Nomo
Wolf
Clemens

All of them had drop-offs in production after the break...but exlcuding wins, Webbs numbers were better overall and should stay very good.

Sometimes a second year slump comes for pitchers after the hitters have a had a chance to get a few looks at them, but I wouldn't be too worried with Webb. His record after the break was horrible (3-7), but his era was still an excellent 3.33. His whip went went up to 1.28 compared to a 1.04 the first half as well. But strangely, opponents batted worse against him the second half and he struck out batters at a considerably higher rate. This implies he night have tried to overpower guys too much after the break, when he probably should've just tried to make hitters put that sinker of his in play like he did the first half. Anyway, I don't think Webb is in for a sophomore slump, and with the mediocrity of teams in the NL West, I'd expect him to increase his win total to around 15. His stuff is excellent.

Nomo is a close second on this list for me. He's a horse on the mound who eats up innings, gets his K's, and has a very good era. I'd put him ahead of Webb if he didn't start losing his location after the break last year (1.49 whip after the break :-P ). But his consistency the last two years have allowed the Dogers to average 88-89 victories the last couple seasons.

Wolf fell apart after the break...5+ era, 1.5+ whip

Clemens moved to hitter friendly confines...and he's pretty darn old
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Postby BigLebowski » Mon Feb 16, 2004 8:14 pm

Webb saw many a-batter last season the second time around and it didn't really phase him. His W's suffered because the d'backs didn't win many games.

I do think his era and whip will go up with familiarity but his wins will go up as well.

I'd rank them


Wolf
Webb
Nomo
Clemens
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Postby NZF » Mon Feb 16, 2004 8:22 pm

BigLebowski wrote:Webb saw many a-batter last season the second time around and it didn't really phase him. His W's suffered because the d'backs didn't win many games.

I do think his era and whip will go up with familiarity but his wins will go up as well.

I'd rank them


Wolf
Webb
Nomo
Clemens


No he didn't looked fazed at all when Larry Walker hit that grand slam off him in the first innings in late September after having gone 0 for 5 against Webb in 2 games in July.
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Postby swingaway » Mon Feb 16, 2004 8:24 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:He is a great young pitcher but expect somewhat of a second year slump.

This year I would rate them

Wolf
Nomo
Webb
Clemens



Everyone says this. Why should we expect a second year slump? Just becasue that is the thing to say?


Not because that is the thing to say but because that is the thing that does invaribly happen. A lot of young pitchers hit the majors and hitters are facing them for the first time and get blown away. Dontrelle Willis did it as well last year but when he came up against the same hitters again later in the season he wasn't so dominant. Webb had an incredible rookie year and if he doesn't slump on those numbers ERA 2.84 and k / ip ratio Whip 1.15 I am sure most people would be very suprised. I guess that is why he is only currently avg. ranked 23rd on pitcher draft sheets but had Top 10 stats last season. Also when Randy goes down again ( with that bone on bone thing) Webb will be the Ace of that Arizona outfit and that will just add to the increased pressure the kid will be under. It all adds up to somewhat of a second year slump. Nothing major but certainly worth considering when drafting. The other thing is he pitchers in a hitters park where last season his ERA was a more realistic 3.43.

I know it is only anecdotal evidence but he didn't look too flash when he faced the Rockies late last season after dominating them in two starts previously in early July.


dude when he gave up 6 runs it was at coors and that was the only time he gave up more than 4 runs thw whole season. Jeeze this guy pretty soon will be in top 5. Now with more run support he will get even more wins. Webb proved last year he could handle a whole season just look at his stats and splits there almost identical except for the colorado gamesat coors.
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Postby Guest » Mon Feb 16, 2004 8:38 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
BigLebowski wrote:Webb saw many a-batter last season the second time around and it didn't really phase him. His W's suffered because the d'backs didn't win many games.

I do think his era and whip will go up with familiarity but his wins will go up as well.

I'd rank them


Wolf
Webb
Nomo
Clemens


No he didn't looked fazed at all when Larry Walker hit that grand slam off him in the first innings in late September after having gone 0 for 5 against Webb in 2 games in July.


The fact that you have to go to giving up a grand slam to Larry Wlaker to prove your point that "hitters got a handle on him" proves how weak your argument is. Your using one pitch to support your point. Yeah, the guy had a rough few final outings. Chalk that up to rookie fatigue rather than hitters getting a handle on him. If the latter was the case he probably wouldn't thrown a 2 hit shutout against LA in his third to last outing just a week after facing them in his last start.
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Postby NZF » Mon Feb 16, 2004 8:43 pm

Anonymous wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:
BigLebowski wrote:Webb saw many a-batter last season the second time around and it didn't really phase him. His W's suffered because the d'backs didn't win many games.

I do think his era and whip will go up with familiarity but his wins will go up as well.

I'd rank them


Wolf
Webb
Nomo
Clemens


No he didn't looked fazed at all when Larry Walker hit that grand slam off him in the first innings in late September after having gone 0 for 5 against Webb in 2 games in July.


The fact that you have to go to giving up a grand slam to Larry Wlaker to prove your point that "hitters got a handle on him" proves how weak your argument is. Your using one pitch to support your point. Yeah, the guy had a rough few final outings. Chalk that up to rookie fatigue rather than hitters getting a handle on him. If the latter was the case he probably wouldn't thrown a 2 hit shutout against LA in his third to last outing just a week after facing them in his last start.


And you reckon I had a weak argument to prove a point. Mate, I could have pitched a shut out against LA last year.
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Postby Guest » Mon Feb 16, 2004 8:46 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:
BigLebowski wrote:Webb saw many a-batter last season the second time around and it didn't really phase him. His W's suffered because the d'backs didn't win many games.

I do think his era and whip will go up with familiarity but his wins will go up as well.

I'd rank them


Wolf
Webb
Nomo
Clemens


No he didn't looked fazed at all when Larry Walker hit that grand slam off him in the first innings in late September after having gone 0 for 5 against Webb in 2 games in July.


The fact that you have to go to giving up a grand slam to Larry Wlaker to prove your point that "hitters got a handle on him" proves how weak your argument is. Your using one pitch to support your point. Yeah, the guy had a rough few final outings. Chalk that up to rookie fatigue rather than hitters getting a handle on him. If the latter was the case he probably wouldn't thrown a 2 hit shutout against LA in his third to last outing just a week after facing them in his last start.


And you reckon I had a weak argument to prove a point. Mate, I could have pitched a shut out against LA last year.


Mate...if it was a matter of hittes figuring him out...you'd think afterfacing him a week earlier hitters would do well against him
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Postby NZF » Mon Feb 16, 2004 8:55 pm

[/quote]

The fact that you have to go to giving up a grand slam to Larry Wlaker to prove your point that "hitters got a handle on him" proves how weak your argument is. [/quote]

Hitters got a handle on him? Your words not mine. All I said was expect somewhat of a slump this season on the incredible rookie numbers he put up last year. I could give 10 more reasons why I think that may be the case but the most obvious logical one is he doesn't have the advantage of not having been seen before.

An ERA of 3.4 WHIP of 1.22 and a lesser K to IP ratio would be somewhat of a slump (his WINS should remain similar) but never the less good overall numbers for a 3rd or 4th starter.

Man, where did I say he's in for a 6-16 4.90 ERA 1.40 WHIP season.
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Postby Guest » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:11 pm

Not because that is the thing to say but because that is the thing that does invaribly happen. A lot of young pitchers hit the majors and hitters are facing them for the first time and get blown away.

Does this refresh your memory
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Postby Guest » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:12 pm

Not because that is the thing to say but because that is the thing that does invaribly happen. A lot of young pitchers hit the majors and hitters are facing them for the first time and get blown away. Dontrelle Willis did it as well last year but when he came up against the same hitters again later in the season he wasn't so dominant.

sorry, cut some of the quote out
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