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Rotoworld 08' Projections available..Buy it?

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Re: Rotoworld 08' Projections available..Buy it?

Postby bobbing_headz » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:54 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:As others have said, if you are just interested in projections, there are at least 4 available for free (CHONE, Bill James, Marcel, and ZiPS). The first three are already available at Fangraphs, and ZiPS should be there soon.

The only pay projection I'd shell out for is PECOTA, because of its demonstrated performance. I'd encourage rotoworld to do a fair comparison of its projections to others.


Agree that fangraphs is good, it's been my savior. Check it out and you'll realize it's far better than most pay sites.
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Re: Rotoworld 08' Projections available..Buy it?

Postby kemper5 » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:54 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:As others have said, if you are just interested in projections, there are at least 4 available for free (CHONE, Bill James, Marcel, and ZiPS). The first three are already available at Fangraphs, and ZiPS should be there soon.

The only pay projection I'd shell out for is PECOTA, because of its demonstrated performance. I'd encourage rotoworld to do a fair comparison of its projections to others.


James is pretty good, but Marcel and Chone I really cannot bear to look at, Marcel has got to do a 3 year average and that is all for his projections. With Marcel when you project Prince Fielder to have barely 30 HR's and 92 RBI that is pretty bad, he has most every big bopper except a very few under 100 rbi's (Ryan Braun 79 RBI for example) and batting under .300.. It's pretty sad..However, James to me is much better and yes, I do like Pecota and Baseball Notbook whom I both subscribe to
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Re: Rotoworld 08' Projections available..Buy it?

Postby great gretzky » Sat Feb 09, 2008 7:25 pm

I may be in the minority, but as far as I am concerned, unless the projections are in some type of general/relative tier, they don't make much sense. We all know you don't sit your studs. But what is their variance anyway, sans injury? Do we really know for sure if Pujols will hit 40 home runs or 43? You don't. but for the middle-tier and lower guys, projections without some general sense of relative value are pointless. You are going to sit certain players based on the opposing pitcher, ot a hot/cold streak. I always wonder how many stats you shave off because you are playing the percentages, etc. I tend to do my evaluations on tiers, and bunches of five. Ok, is this guy a 25 homer caliber player, or is he thirty? (the 25 guy might have a career year and hit 30, the thirty guy might hit 35 or more, etc.). Is he the kind o gy who is fast, but not THAT fast, and can steal 30, or is he underutilized and could really steal 40 with regular abs or a nice manager. I think those things are more important really, because everyone is going to have their staff aces and stud hitters, but for everyone else on their roster ... there are going to be decisions good/bad, shenanigans, and trades, and the normal ebb and flow of stats ... all of which effect your end result anyway. analyzing over 5-6 home runs/steals and 10-15 rbi/runs seems a little pointless to me, because your realized stats will be so much different anyway.

I'd say that this forum is the best source of information. That being said, not everything you read here is gold, but in aggregate, it's better than anything you will pay for. and its DEFINITELY better than anything you will read on ESPN, CNNSI, CBSSPORTSLINE or rotoworld.

Personally, I try to read it all, and get a general sentiment of who is the "sleeper du jour", who is overvalued in perception versus undervalued, and get a sense of the general area of where people should be drafted. League economics and attitudes are an undervalued (I'd say the most critical) aspect of fantasy sports.
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Re: Rotoworld 08' Projections available..Buy it?

Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 09, 2008 7:46 pm

Rotoworld is awesome for their news update but not for projections/rankings.

But other than Pouliot, I don't find their analysis and advices that helpful. Certainly not to pay money for anyway.
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Re: Rotoworld 08' Projections available..Buy it?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Feb 09, 2008 8:13 pm

kemper5 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:As others have said, if you are just interested in projections, there are at least 4 available for free (CHONE, Bill James, Marcel, and ZiPS). The first three are already available at Fangraphs, and ZiPS should be there soon.

The only pay projection I'd shell out for is PECOTA, because of its demonstrated performance. I'd encourage rotoworld to do a fair comparison of its projections to others.


James is pretty good, but Marcel and Chone I really cannot bear to look at, Marcel has got to do a 3 year average and that is all for his projections. With Marcel when you project Prince Fielder to have barely 30 HR's and 92 RBI that is pretty bad, he has most every big bopper except a very few under 100 rbi's (Ryan Braun 79 RBI for example) and batting under .300.. It's pretty sad..However, James to me is much better and yes, I do like Pecota and Baseball Notbook whom I both subscribe to


Remember that Marcel is just a baseline "no frills" estimator. It does nothing more than a weighted average of the last three years, with regression to the mean and age effects.

I actually use the four listed above as a group. Marcel, imo, keeps the others honest. It will tend to underestimate younger players; James tends to over-estimate them imo.

Not sure what you don't like about CHONE. BP's roundup had them second best in pitching. They were strong in hitting, too, but other systems were better.
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Re: Rotoworld 08' Projections available..Buy it?

Postby Ender » Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:46 pm

I have never used the rotoworld draft guide but looking at the samples it seems they give a lot more than just projections. Now the info you get can be found elsewhere but sometimes it is nice to have all that info centralized. I think I'd rather try their draft guide than say buy a magazine with that type of information.
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Re: Rotoworld 08' Projections available..Buy it?

Postby THE TERMINATOR » Tue Feb 12, 2008 2:18 am

Rotoworld runs a very good site and they some of the best free stuff of any site other then some message boards like this one. And I desided to buy there Draft Guide and season Pass just to see what they have to offer on the thought of if there Free stuff is good then the pay stuff has to have some value and at the very worst it is only a few bucks and I would be helping them keep there site going and giving good info even if it is free stuff in the future.

It isn't just the Projections. Sure you find projections elsewhere and maybe even for free but are Rotoworld Projections any better or worse then any others. Rotoworld Projections are no different then any other projections. You got to get to know them to put them to the best use for knowing what ones are under valued and what is over value is just as importent. But Rotoworld offers Customize Cheatsheets where you can set it up to your league scoring. So at the very less they make them easy to use them.

But there is more. They have Player Profiles to give you insite on all the players and give you an idea of what to expect. and ADP report that is updated daily. Yeah you can find that for free if you know where to look but those are updated one a week or every other week and it has to be a value to have daily updates and with the Rotoworld Ranking included on the ADP report it offers what players might be going to high and may not be a good value. Yeah you can say there rankings are not good but as always you should deside what to belive or not belive.

They also have a Closer Report with projections of Saves with insite on who the team closers are and weather or not they will remain closers all season and you can't say there is a Cafe member that would that having good informaition on Closers isn't worth a few bucks.

Then the season pass offers updated overall rankings every week thoughout the season. Sure you can say that you have a good idea of players values right now for afterall you have Projections and ADP reports to use to make them jurgements but once the season starts and players get off to hot starts or cold and those become out of date. Can you say you always have the same understanding of player values on June 1 that you had on draft day. I do admit that is my reason of buying to have relieable inseason info when I'm not sure what to do for that is the only thing that holds me back.
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Re: Rotoworld 08' Projections available..Buy it?

Postby in10s » Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:01 am

I love the cafe, it is a great source of information. But I think having a pay site in addition to the cafe is a reasonable thing to consider. Some of the folks here border on fanaticism when they say "never pay, just use the cafe!"

The Terminator made some great points, especially about having things centralized. If you use RotoWorld as he suggests, or some other site, i love having a place where I can look up a player by last name to get some one elses thoughts. You can't always get that easily at the cafe. Search on a player's name and you get all sorts of posts that don't talk about that player.

But in defense of the cafe fanatics, almost all of the data on those sites can be found here somewhere. Here is part of the terminators post:
THE TERMINATOR wrote:<stuff removed>
They also have a Closer Report with projections of Saves with insite on who the team closers are and weather or not they will remain closers all season and you can't say there is a Cafe member that would that having good informaition on Closers isn't worth a few bucks.
<stuff removed>


Well, for that, I live on the closer thread here in Baseball Leftovers. That certainly must be as good (or better, thanks Havoc!!) than what Rotoworld has.
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Re: Rotoworld 08' Projections available..Buy it?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 12, 2008 5:18 pm

THE TERMINATOR wrote:Then the season pass offers updated overall rankings every week thoughout the season. Sure you can say that you have a good idea of players values right now for afterall you have Projections and ADP reports to use to make them jurgements but once the season starts and players get off to hot starts or cold and those become out of date. Can you say you always have the same understanding of player values on June 1 that you had on draft day. I do admit that is my reason of buying to have relieable inseason info when I'm not sure what to do for that is the only thing that holds me back.


I've never used Rotoworld, so I don't want my comments regarding paying for their projections to suggest that there is not value at the site. I'm sure there is. But, I do have to say that it is just as likely that trying to "adjust" values mid-season as a result of short-run performance can be as damaging. IMO, for every player who "proves" he can do it, there is another who is just having a temporary hot streak, and it is virtually impossible to determine which is which ahead of time over a short period. So, I'm not willing to pay much at all for such information because it is just as likely to lead me into error as success. Value changes that result from changes in roles--becoming a full-time starter and such are different, but I generally don't find it difficult to find that on my own.

So, I've heard from others about what they get, but I usually don't see much value in what they tell meabout pay sites. The inside information that claim to have, imo, is not useful and the public information that they do have is readily available for free. But, ymmv.
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