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Baseball Prospectus 2008

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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2008

Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Feb 27, 2008 11:38 pm

FWIW, I have crammed it in in as few as 3 days but have a couple of weeks this year and it's much tastier that way. I think though that the point of the BP folks is that it is the fault of the book industry more than them in that their product has actually been finished for a while. It would probably not be too challenging to 'CSI' it and sort of date it with the last recognized trade that's in the text but it's still a great resource, for about the price of two fantasy mags.

And it's funny as hell. The last time I went to the doctor, I read the part in Trainspotting where the dude shoots the skinhead's dog so he can go kill it with the baseball bat. I had tears coming out of my eyes I was laughing so hard when the cop got on him about 'what are you doing w/ a baseball bat here in Scotland anyway laddie' and, when I got my blood pressure checked, it was so low I had them recheck it to make sure. Laughter is very good for you.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2008

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Feb 28, 2008 12:14 am

[quote="Wharton93"
I'm sure they do give a shit about people's fantasy draft since they, like, sell books at this time of the year for money and specifically sell books with projections for 2008 in them and I'm sure they like money. They'd get more of this money if they produced the book 2 weeks earlier. They don't go to press until January and then it's all rush-rush at this time of year and it happens every year. They have a book tour starting this Friday and still have production issues (hence the multiple posts from Goldman). Pitchers and catchers reported weeks ago, games have already started and they're still working it all out. Regardless of giving a shit about a fantasy draft, they'd sell more books and make more money if they had it on time for book tours and spring training. As it is, by not having it available until right about now (and having it trickle it out here and there, some people have it, some don't), they lose out on a good chunk of sales. Nobody buys these books in April so the window is short as is. As for the bulk of the statistical content in the book, its mostly available online via paid subscription (there's that pesky money thing again)---and more up-to-date so parts of the book are stale the day after they send it to the printer. And if parts of it are going to be stale---they should just have it done a little sooner. It is a very useful book (and a great website), and over 600 pages---not something that can be easily read and digested in a day. They'd sell a lot more copies and the marketplace would be much happier, if they had it out a few weeks ago. As it is, there's a chunk of the universe that won't buy the book and that's their own fault. I think it's a bit clownish of an approach to serving a market.[/quote]


They're #21 on the amazon list of bestsellers. They simply are not interested in rushing out a second rate product just to make a few dollars of fantasy rubes who think these projections might actually help them win their league. The incremental difference between a monkey Marcel projection and PECOTA washes out in the noise of a typical season. Their hard core market is the sabrmetric and REAL baseball community, not the fantasy market. And that community does not give a DAMN whether the book comes out in February, March, or April.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2008

Postby jfg » Thu Feb 28, 2008 12:25 am

It's well documented that key figures at BP aren't big fans of fantasy baseball.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2008

Postby tuckerman85 » Thu Feb 28, 2008 10:17 am

Anyways...

Any tips for a first time reader of the book? I've heard that their projections tend to be conservative, but anything else? Are there key stats for pitchers and hitters that you use to identify young players with a lot of potential? I'll take any advice I can get.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2008

Postby kemper5 » Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:23 am

Ive noticed all the Hitters Pecota Cards & weighted means being very Conservative, with pitching, especially relief pitching, it's almost the opposite, it's really optimistic.

2 random examples I noticed

Brad Hawpe
21 HR's, 78 RBI's, 74 Runs, .282 Ave

Huston Street
2.52 ERA, 1.02 Whip, 83 K's, 41 Saves 8-o 8-o 8-o

And with most hitters, it's simular, alot of the big sluggers are 20-30 RBI's off last year and several HR's short..
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2008

Postby Giambis » Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:55 am

jfg wrote:It's well documented that key figures at BP aren't big fans of fantasy baseball.


That's interesting. While I understand that purists find fantasy to be a perversion of the sport, fantasy baseball is obviously one of the reasons this book (and others like it) have become so popular in recent years. Even excludng people who are just using it for fantasy purposes, there are people like myself, who got into fantasy baseball first but have since expanded their interest into sabermetrics and more detailed statistical analysis. Love it or hate it, I'm surprised there are well-documented situations where writers of BP would be speak out against fantasy baseball. Directly and indirectly, it contributes in a significant way to the success of their book, and to hear that they're against it is somewhat troubling. Do we have any cites to their disapproving statements?

With that said, I don't think the book should come out any sooner than it does, and in no way should bow to the wants of the fantasy communicty. But I don't think its prudent practice to speak out against a significant portion of your reader base.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2008

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Feb 28, 2008 12:58 pm

It's not that they would speak out against it, just that it is not their primary interest. They are not Shandler, iow, and are not trying to be him or any of the other sites/pubs that focus primarily on what fantasy baseball players want.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2008

Postby makewayhomer » Thu Feb 28, 2008 2:29 pm

BP has plenty of fantasy related content and tools. I think they are far from "against it". as miss agnes said, it's just not their primary interest. their writers/staff often work for pro baseball teams on a consulting basis on "real" issues, and thats where their focus is.

Keith Woolner, Keith Law, etc

also, plenty of them mention their fantasy teams, etc
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2008

Postby jfg » Thu Feb 28, 2008 2:35 pm

If you've read Fantasyland you'll know what I'm talking about- especially Joe Sheehan.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2008

Postby BUCCOFAN » Thu Feb 28, 2008 2:46 pm

Mine arrived today on my doorstep.....Love the book, been buying it for the past 5 plus seasons.

It has everything you need, and even some comedy added to some player write ups, this one caught my eye.

"Its is said that the specter of Hee Seop Choi now haunts the upper deck of Great American Ball Park, trying to warn Joey Votto about how Dusty Baker killed his career. The parellels -- big, young, foreign, (Votto's is Canadian :-b ) power and patient first basemen." :-D

If anyone is hesitant in buying this "Bible" of a Baseball Book....DON'T, It's a Fine Read.....
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