Ranking the A's trio

[BobbyRoberto]

His strike out rate declined last year but it is nothing mechanical or physical so there is no reason not for it to come back up to its normal level.

Why did his strikeout rate decline last year, as well as the previous year? Just randomness? I don't think so. He's dropped nearly 1.5 K/9 in each of the last two seasons. I think that's an indicator to keep in mind.

He's still one of the top-20 pitchers in baseball, in my opinion. I just think Hudson is a top-10. They're both great pitchers (as is Mulder).

[Erboes]

All I was saying is that Mulder has been winning without throwing a ton of K's, and since Zito stopped getting a lot of K's the wins declined a lot. .

This quote is why I often have problems with your posts, Jackal. You take your beliefs and act like they're facts even though the facts contradict you. If, what you say, was true, then Zito should have had a worse year in '02 then he did in '01 because his K/9 took a steep drop. Instead, his ERA dropped .74, his WHIP dropped .10, he won 6 more games and, of course, he won the Cy Young.

I don't know if this stuff is intentional, but in my mind this type of posting drops your credibility pretty much to 0.

[Mookie4ever]

His strike out rate declined last year but it is nothing mechanical or physical so there is no reason not for it to come back up to its normal level.

Why did his strikeout rate decline last year, as well as the previous year? Just randomness? I don't think so. He's dropped nearly 1.5 K/9 in each of the last two seasons. I think that's an indicator to keep in mind.

He's still one of the top-20 pitchers in baseball, in my opinion. I just think Hudson is a top-10. They're both great pitchers (as is Mulder).

You've got to know how to use stats Bobby.

What does a drop in K/9 mean?

It didn't mean anything when his K/9 dropped from 2001 to 2002 because, as I and Erboes just pointed out, all of his other stats went up and he was the best pitcher in the AL.

K/9 is a great stat to use for power pitching prospects. eg. Oliver Perez usually can't hit the side of a barn, but at the age of 21 he struck out 10 MLB batters per 9. This is an indication that he's got the raw goods to be an MLB pitcher.

Jamie Moyer on the other hand can be a very effective fantasy and real life pitcher with a 5.4K/9.

Zito's 2003 WHIP, ERA and BA against were lower than they were in 2001. There is nothing to worry about with him. I'm betting that Zito's K/9 goes back up a bit and if his WHIP stays at about a 1.15 to 1.20 his win total should be back up as well.

[GSes]

Great here we go w/ the Zito is declining again posts.

sigh

do I need to bump the Zito is not declining thread because in many ways he pitched well last season and had career highs in many categories?

it was only a week ago we argued this and everyone forgot.

[RynMan]

Great here we go w/ the Zito is declining again posts.

sigh

do I need to bump the Zito is not declining thread because in many ways he pitched well last season and had career highs in many categories?

it was only a week ago we argued this and everyone forgot.

I agree with you GSes.
Im sick of people bringing out these meaningless K/9 stats and everything else. All you gotta do is look at the guy's ERA and opposing batters average and see that the guy is absolutely fine. Who cares if his strikeout ratios are declining? since when was the only way to get someone out through K's? Zito has never been that type of pitcher, so why use the K/9 figure???

[RynMan]

I agree with what LBJackal says above about Zito's declining numbers, that's why I had Hudson ahead of Zito in an earlier post. The reason I would start the year with Mulder at #3 is the hip injury. I believe it's more significant than people in this thread realize. This is from a Baseball Prospectus Team Health Report for the Oakland A's:

Mulder returns from a fractured hip (femur, near the ball of the hip to be technical) suffered due to a faulty mound. Call it random or call it the fault of the Phillies' grounds crew, but there has never been a pitcher that has returned from this type of injury. While the A's and Mulder have insisted that he could have returned for last season's ALCS, there is no evidence to back this up. I don't want to say that Billy Beane, Larry Davis, or Mark Mulder were lying, because I simply have no reason to believe that, but I also know the A's often seek any competitive advantage they can. In the absence of objective knowledge that Mulder can pitch--either last October or this February--I'll continue to be cautious. It's only when Mulder takes the mound in spring training that we will know for sure. His red light is based on the lack of any comparable returns only. His arm should be well-rested if possibly slightly rusty for the 2004 season.

For me, going into a draft, that's enough of a question mark for me to drop Mulder down the list. Once spring training gets going and we can see how Mulder looks, he can go back up my cheat sheet if he looks healthy.

u gotta be kidding me right? is this the only report on mulder's health you have read??? i have seen at least a dozen other articles refferrring to him as being in great shape. Mulder will dominate this year, dont worry about his hip.

[BobbyRoberto]

Im sick of people bringing out these meaningless K/9 stats and everything else. All you gotta do is look at the guy's ERA and opposing batters average and see that the guy is absolutely fine. Who cares if his strikeout ratios are declining? since when was the only way to get someone out through K's? Zito has never been that type of pitcher, so why use the K/9 figure???

ERA and Opposing Batting Average are wildly fluctuating. I don't think they are reliable stats. Zito's expected ERA (given hits and walks allowed) were almost identical in 2002 and 2003 (3.09 and 3.05) but he had an actual ERA of 2.75 and 3.30. I'd say his lower ERA in 2002, as well as his 23-5 record, had a bit of good luck involved, just as his 3.30 ERA and 14-12 record last year had bad luck involved. He was nearly the same pitcher except for 36 less strikeouts and 10 more walks. Innings pitched and hits were very close.

If he stays at the level he was last season, he should be as good. If his K/9 drops another 1.5, he's in trouble.

Here are some projections for Zito I have handy, from assorted sources:

Baseball Forecaster: 225 inn, 15 wins, 3.84 era, 1.26 whip, 147 k
Rototimes: 230 inn, 16 wins, 3.25 era, 1.19 whip, 162 k
PECOTA: 202 inn, (no wins projection), 4.01 era, 1.29 whip, 143 k

And for Tim Hudson:

Baseball Forecaster: 240 inn, 20 wins, 2.93 era, 1.13 whip, 181 k
Rototimes: 235 inn, 16 wins, 2.91 era, 1.14 whip, 161 k
PECOTA: 215 inn, (no wins projection), 3.52 era, 1.26 whip, 140 k