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Ranking the A's trio

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Postby RynMan » Tue Feb 17, 2004 2:22 am

HOOTIE wrote:
RynMan wrote:he has the best stuff of the three. ask any A's fan that follows the a's closely, they'll tell you hudson is most likely the ace of the staff. He made the red sox look foolish in the playoffs last year, beat pedro. He dominated the best offense in the AL, possibly the ML.


I would never ask any teams fans for info. Scouting reports grade Hudson at 7.1, Mulder at 7.1, Zito at 7.0. Basically a wash. Zito throws the softest, but has maybe bb best curve.


thats cool. but take a look at last years stats. hudson was the best performer) even tho mulder was hurt. hell, i dont care my team has all 3 so im flyin. :-)
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Postby ramble2 » Tue Feb 17, 2004 2:37 am

BobbyRoberto wrote:With Mulder's hip problem, I would have to drop him to 3.

Hudson
Zito
Mulder

Harden won't pitch 200 innings this year as a #5 starter. I'd consider him late in drafts, though.


Mulder is also the most efficient of the three. Pitches a fast game, and keeps his pitch counts down. He reminds me of Maddux that way. Of course I don't have the stats in front of me, so here's a chance for someone to dig them up and prove me wrong. :-D

I understand your point, but I'd still say it's a wash between the three for fantasy purposes. Pick whichever of the 3 is your fave.
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Postby ramble2 » Tue Feb 17, 2004 2:41 am

RynMan wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
RynMan wrote:Hudson is the most consistant performer. He is more dominant, and if he had 18-20 wins last season probably would have won cy young.


Explain how he's more dominant?


he has the best stuff of the three. ask any A's fan that follows the a's closely, they'll tell you hudson is most likely the ace of the staff. He made the red sox look foolish in the playoffs last year, beat pedro. He dominated the best offense in the AL, possibly the ML.


I'm an A's fan who follows them closely.

When Zito's curve is on, I'd take him as my ace.
Was at the Pedro/Hudson regular season game. Hudson looked ace-like to me.
Saw Mulder throw a complete game (one of 9 last year) with something like 110 pitches in about 2 1/2 hours. Ace like.

These aren't atypical performances. All 3 are legit aces on 90% of MLB staffs.
Last edited by ramble2 on Tue Feb 17, 2004 4:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Rage » Tue Feb 17, 2004 3:46 am

Hudson
Zito
Mulder
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Feb 17, 2004 4:00 am

GSes wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Hudson
Mulder
Zito

Hudson is the obvious #1, he's just plain awesome. Mulder and Zito are pretty much the same player stats wise. Personally, I'll take Mulder who has proven he can win games without getting a lot of K's, unlike Zito.


What do you mean unlike Zito? Last 3 years Zito has 54 wins, Mulder 55, Hudson 49.

3 year whips

Mulder 1.16
Hudson 1.18
Zito 1.18

3 year eras

Hudson 3.02
Zito 3.17
Mulder 3.36

K rate

Mulder 6.2
Hudson 6.1
Zito 5.7

Why is Hudson considered the easy #1? I still like Zito. I'm stubborn.

Zito
Hudson
Mulder


Zito's career K/9 rate is still higer then Hudson and Mulder

career k/9
Zito 7.16

Hudson 6.81

Mulder 6.11

Zito has a strong case to be #1 in the A's trio


Who whoa, everybody calm down throwing the stats around. All I was saying is that Mulder has been winning without throwing a ton of K's, and since Zito stopped getting a lot of K's the wins declined a lot. You don't need to bring in 3 year averages and career K/9. Geez.

Hudson has been better consistently, Zito has been declining consistently, and Mulder has been pretty steady, although he's not in the class of Hudson. You have to weight value by more than career or 3 year average. Weighted 3 year averages, yes, but plain old (01+02+03)/3 isn't accurate at all. You have to take into account Zito getting worse Wins/K's wise, and Mulder and Hudson improving or staying consistent.

Last year Mulder had 9 less starts than Zito and still managed more wins, as well as a better K/9. They had the same WHIP and Mulder had a better ERA. Hootie, how can you say Zito's #1 and Mulder's #3 when Mulder did everything better than Zito last year?

Unless there is some reason to break the trend of Zito declining and Hudson and Mulder improving, I'm not taking Zito over either of them.
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Tue Feb 17, 2004 4:27 am

I agree with what LBJackal says above about Zito's declining numbers, that's why I had Hudson ahead of Zito in an earlier post. The reason I would start the year with Mulder at #3 is the hip injury. I believe it's more significant than people in this thread realize. This is from a Baseball Prospectus Team Health Report for the Oakland A's:

Mulder returns from a fractured hip (femur, near the ball of the hip to be technical) suffered due to a faulty mound. Call it random or call it the fault of the Phillies' grounds crew, but there has never been a pitcher that has returned from this type of injury. While the A's and Mulder have insisted that he could have returned for last season's ALCS, there is no evidence to back this up. I don't want to say that Billy Beane, Larry Davis, or Mark Mulder were lying, because I simply have no reason to believe that, but I also know the A's often seek any competitive advantage they can. In the absence of objective knowledge that Mulder can pitch--either last October or this February--I'll continue to be cautious. It's only when Mulder takes the mound in spring training that we will know for sure. His red light is based on the lack of any comparable returns only. His arm should be well-rested if possibly slightly rusty for the 2004 season.


For me, going into a draft, that's enough of a question mark for me to drop Mulder down the list. Once spring training gets going and we can see how Mulder looks, he can go back up my cheat sheet if he looks healthy.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Feb 17, 2004 8:36 am

LBJackal wrote:Hudson has been better consistently, Zito has been declining consistently, and Mulder has been pretty steady, although he's not in the class of Hudson.

Unless there is some reason to break the trend of Zito declining and Hudson and Mulder improving, I'm not taking Zito over either of them.


What is all of this about "Zito declining consistently"? If you mean declined last year - then yes. If you really mean "declining consistently" then you are wrong. As you rarely mean what you write, I will assume that you mean that Zito took a step backwards last year. That is the only reasonable position considering that Zito's ERA, IP, WHIP, CG, BA against and control were all better last year than they were in 2001.

He won the Cy Young at the age of 23 and he is one of the biggest flakes since Bill Spaceman Lee. Why did he take a step backwards last year? Maybe because he was 24, thought that he owned the world and was making late night tv appearances? Maybe the new foreskin ring was rubbing him the wrong way? Who knows.

He has the highest ceiling of the three and is a good bet to improve on last years numbers - can Mulder and Hudson get any better? Maybe, but not to the extent that Zito can.

This is a case where you can really lose yourself in meaningless stats. One thing I know for sure is that Zito has the best value of the three and is the one most likely to end up on my team - if he is still there in round 5.

None of this matters however since next week Jackal will be writing that Zito is the best one and should be drafted in the 1st round before Prior.
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Tue Feb 17, 2004 2:45 pm

The peripheral numbers show that Zito has been down for 2 straight years now, while Hudson and Mulder have been more consistent.

Zito:
2001--8.6 K/9, 2.6 K/BB
2002--7.1 K/9, 2.3 K/BB
2003--5.7 K/9, 1.7 K/BB

Hudson:
2001--6.9 K/9, 2.6 K/BB
2002--5.7 K/9, 2.5 K/BB
2003--6.1 K/9, 2.7 K/BB

Mulder:
2001--6.0 K/9, 3.0 K/BB
2002--6.9 K/9, 2.9 K/BB
2003--6.2 K/9, 3.2 K/BB
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Feb 17, 2004 3:29 pm

BobbyRoberto wrote:The peripheral numbers show that Zito has been down for 2 straight years now, while Hudson and Mulder have been more consistent.

Zito:
2001--8.6 K/9, 2.6 K/BB
2002--7.1 K/9, 2.3 K/BB
2003--5.7 K/9, 1.7 K/BB



BobbyR I think that this is a case of stats not saying anything and, in fact, deceiving.

What do these numbers show? That Zito's K/9 and K/BB declined from 2001 to 2002? He won the Cy Young in 2002.

Zito suffered a set back last year. You cannot say that he has been declining for years because it is not true.

His strike out rate declined last year but it is nothing mechanical or physical so there is no reason not for it to come back up to its normal level.
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Postby DJUmperPSU » Tue Feb 17, 2004 3:55 pm

Zito needs a bit more respect.....
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