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Tell me what is wrong with my rating system

Tell me what is wrong with my rating system

Postby pahcct » Sun Jan 20, 2008 10:18 pm

Hey guys, I am a newbie at fantasy baseball. I played in the MLB.com 2007 Open last year and really enjoyed it so I am going to try to get a little more serious about it this year.

Just to mess around with some stats I took the top 100 home run hitters from the NL and the top 100 from the AL and put them into an excel spreadsheet. On one sheet I deleted all but the offensive 5x5 stats (HR, R, RBI, AVE, SB). I sorted each column decending and then assigned a rank of 1 to 200 for each player in each of the 5 categories. So for instance Matt Holiliday was 4th in Ave, 40th in SB, 3rd in RBI, 6th in HR, and 6th in Runs.

PLAYER TEAM POS R HR RBI SB AVG AVE P SB P RBI P HR P RUNS P 5 X 5 P 5X5 AVE

M Holliday COL OF 120 36 137 11 0.34 4 40 3 6 6 59 11.8

Next, I used each ranking as a value and added them together to get 5x5 Points - Holliday for example was 59 points. Using this sheet I can filter for each position to see who the leaders were.

Is my rational correct here for 5x5 Roto. Here is my concern - look at this list of the top ten short stops according to my 5x5 Points:

1. H Ramirez
2. J Rollins
3. T Tulowitzki
4. C Guillen
5. D Jeter
6. O Cabrera
7. K Greene
8. M Young
9. J Hardy
10. J Reyes

A good example of why I am wondering if this type of ranking system is correct is the difference between J. Reyes and T. Tulowitzki. Reyes was number 1 in steals but below average elsewhere.
Here were Reyes' rankings 92 1 149 153 7 (1 in SB and 7 in Runs)
Here are Tulowitzki's rankings: 61 60 35 48 20
According to my ranking system Tulowitzki is more valuable than Reyes. Do you think this is correct?

I hope this was understandable and thanks to anyone who responds.
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Re: Tell me what is wrong with my rating system

Postby DRAFTAHOLIC » Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:01 am

I would first say that you definitely have the fantasy bug' you've gone above and beyond in trying to figure out who is the best player overall. However, truthfully...it's overkill and way off. You can find various ranking systems all throughout the computer so, there is no need to reinvent the wheel here. Based on the 5x5 scenario and unless your league is skewed in its point value, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes are your top guys for SS's. They are also being taken either 1st, 2nd or 3rd for round one in most 2008 drafts.

In fantasy, stolen bases and power are the two things players covet. A team that finds players who can provide both across the board, is a team that will compete continually. When the stars are gone from the draft (the players that most people covet), you begin to look for players who can provide depth. That means, you want players who can give you stats across the board; in lesser numbers of course to the stars you picked earlier.

A manager can win a league by obtaining bats that offer 15-20 SB's, 80+RBI, 280+ batting average, 80+ runs to support your upper tier players. The same is also true for pitching. You want to find pitchers that can help you dominate one or two catagories, such as K's or Whip. For example, the Yankees Wang does not provide much help in K's but he is on a team that can get him substantial wins. For bats, Eric Byrnes last year gave owners 50 stolen bases and helped in every stat catagory; now he is a find in fantasy baseball because he can help a manager dominate a catagory and he helps (in lower numbers) across the board.

You can get an idea of where players go in a draft at a site called Mock Draft Central.

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Re: Tell me what is wrong with my rating system

Postby MTUCache » Mon Jan 21, 2008 2:04 pm

I'd say the most obvious thing you're overlooking (assuming of course that I'm actually following your system correctly) is how much better someone is at one particular stat than the next person. Yes, you're ranking them in some order, but you're not factoring the difference between #1 and #2 or #11 and #12. You're not taking into consideration how much a steal is worth as compared to a HR, or RBI. You're not factoring in how many more steals player A will get than player B, just how many players will be between them.

In the example of Reyes... yes he's #1 in steals, and above-average in most other categories. But, it's not enough just to say that he's "the best" basestealer. He's the best by XXX number of bases. The HUGE gap that is between the top couple of basestealers and the rest of them isn't taken into account. Figuring out those gaps is what leads to a successful team. Figuring out how you're going to capitalize on your strengths and finding guys to make up for your shortcomings.

I completely understand where you're coming from, trying to break down lists like this... it works in fantasy football, because all the stats go through some formula to be turned into points, all points are worth the same, and they're all added up to one number in the end, so you can compare the value of one position against another, or two players at the same position. Roto (or even H2H) baseball is a completely different animal. Here, a steal isn't worth the same as an RBI. They're not even related. Beating somebody by twenty wins isn't going to make up for losing by two saves. You're playing a much more intensive system, which takes a lot more judgement calls and massaging of your roster. It's not enough to just say that you can make up for a weak 3B with a good C, like you can with RB/WR in football, you have to maintain not only positional rankings, but rankings in each statistical category.

Add into that the length of the season, multi-position players, players going on (or coming back from) the DL, trading becomes much more interesting, etc, etc, and I think you'll find that fantasy baseball is much different than fantasy football. No longer will your top two draft picks carry your team to the champsionship barring an injury... now you've got to put together a roster where every player is important, even the free agents you pick up in the middle of the season.

In any case... it looks like you've got your head on right. Now you've just got to figure out how you're going to use it. ;-D
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Re: Tell me what is wrong with my rating system

Postby dmendro » Fri Jan 25, 2008 5:59 pm

I'll give you the short version of the two posts above. You aren't weighting stats at all. Reyes is 20 SB's above the next highest guy. You need to weight them somehow against the entirety of the league, Cause if you have a guy like reyes, you may not need a SB from anyone else on your team the entire year to win that category outright. If it's a point league (i.e. a certain number of points for each stat, which it doesn't look like it is) your spreadsheet is alot easier to accurately rank.


However, I would like to point out, all you are doing is ranking them from last year. 2008 is a new season, and last years stats don't translate into this year spot on.
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Re: Tell me what is wrong with my rating system

Postby Matthias » Fri Jan 25, 2008 7:24 pm

If you really want to do it right, this is the way to do it. It's pretty intensive, but if it was easy, everybody would do it. It gives auction values but if you're doing a normal, snake draft, you can just sort the players by most valuable to least, and that will give you your order.

Also, something in line but not exactly the same as what dmendro was saying, your method doesn't give you an idea of how rare something is. If you look at RBI projections, for example, you'll have one guy at 110 or 120 or whatever, and then the next guy 1 or 2 less, so on, and then a whole lotta guys about 25 or 30 less. Whereas with steals you'll have Reyes at 70-something, probably, the next guy at maybe 50 or 60-something, two more guys in the 40's, maybe, half a dozen guys in the 30's, a dozen guys in the 20's, and then a mess of guys down in the teens (approximately). You can always find RBI guys: you can't always find steals. And that's what gets missed by just ranking them and calling each step down the ladder the same.
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Re: Tell me what is wrong with my rating system and is Ordonez..

Postby pahcct » Sat Jan 26, 2008 12:02 pm

Thanks guys, Mathias - I am going to check out that link right now. this looks like it could be interesting.

On another note - I have been checking out ADP and what do you guys think about Maglio Ordonez is 31 at mock draft central. Is he a third round pick? What effect is this business with jose canseco going to have on him. This guy was #1 in average last year and number 2 in RBI's. He hit 28 homers but didn't steal hardly any bases (4). 9th in runs with 117. Top 10 in 3 categories. Is he being undervalued?
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Re: Tell me what is wrong with my rating system and is Ordonez..

Postby MTUCache » Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:18 pm

pahcct wrote:On another note - I have been checking out ADP and what do you guys think about Maglio Ordonez is 31 at mock draft central. Is he a third round pick? What effect is this business with jose canseco going to have on him. This guy was #1 in average last year and number 2 in RBI's. He hit 28 homers but didn't steal hardly any bases (4). 9th in runs with 117. Top 10 in 3 categories. Is he being undervalued?


Undervalued? Possibly a little bit, but really I think people are just expecting him to have a bit closer to "average" season this year. Last year was truly a career year for him, and although the lineup around him has gotten better, it would be very impressive if he put up those kinds of numbers again.

I don't think the Canseco business will have any effect on him, fantasy value or otherwise.

As for where he'll be picked... I'd pretty much stick with the projections:

Holliday and Vlad at the top.
Crawford close behind.
Soriano, Beltran, Ichiro, and Sizemore as a third tier (Sizemore possibly fourth)/
Ordonez, Carlos Lee, and Granderson as the fourth tier.

Considering all of the shallower positions and guaranteed first-rounders in front of him, I'd say Ordonez is a late second-rounder or early third-rounder. Of course, in my league he'll probably be a first rounder, but that's because I'm in Detroit. ;-D
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Re: Tell me what is wrong with my rating system

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 03, 2008 12:33 am

I have stated it before and I'll state it again, you want to run your numbers compared to the average draftable player and not the replacement player. If you had a completely average team it would have an average player at every spot, what the replacement player is doesn't matter except for positional scarcity If you want to take position scarcity into account you build it off of the replacement overall value and not off of individual replacement per stat value. A SB by a C should never ever be more valuable than one by a SS which that system ends up with. If you set up your system such that each stat is valued different per position you'll likely lose your league.
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