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Santana's Future

Postby aclapsaddle » Wed Jan 16, 2008 5:22 pm

Has anyone heard anything recently on any deals involving Santana? Last I heard the Yankees were still in the hunt, but the Twins were hoping to send him to Boston for Ellsbury and Lester. The Twins said they hoped to finish a deal by the end of the month.
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Re: Santana's Future

Postby DC_Commish » Wed Jan 16, 2008 9:44 pm

From what I have read, Boston has structured separate deals around Lester and Ellsbury, but the Red Sox refuse to package both into the same trade. Remember that Santana is a free agent after 2008, so acquiring him costs both prospects and a high-salary extension.

To me, the Mets seem like the frontrunners. They are offering more prospects in a four-for-one deal, albeit without a player the caliber of Ellsbury or Hughes. Second, unlike a NYY or BOS deal, sending Santana to the Mets gets him out of the American League. Finally, given the dichotomy between the Mets' formidable offense (second in runs scored in the NL for 2007) and middling pitching staff, I think they are the most motivated buyers.

That said, I think the most likely scenario is that Santana stays in Minnesota through at least the early part of the season, while the Twins wait for one of his suitors to up the ante. Given Boston's projected rotation, it is difficult, though not impossible, to imagine the Sox needing an additional ace by midsummer. I can easily imagine either the Yankees or Mets finding themselves in that situation, however, and grudgingly upping their offer. Of course, if a rejuvenated Twins teams makes a serious run at the playoffs, Santana could come off the trading block entirely.

Fantasy-wise, Fenway could hurt Santana's ERA, but all three possible landing spots have strong offenses that can increase his wins. I have to imagine a move to the NL increases his fantasy value the most.
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Re: Santana's Future

Postby whitesox04champs » Thu Jan 17, 2008 3:25 pm

From what I've been reading, the Mets are fading out of the race...
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Re: Santana's Future

Postby Grounded Polo » Thu Jan 17, 2008 8:07 pm

It's hard to imagine the Mets upping their offer because if they dealt all 5 guys for Santana, their farm system will be nonexistent. If Santana doesn't push the Mets over the top, there's no one else coming to the rescue from the minors for at least 3 seasons, and that's assuming they continue to grab international gems like Fernando Martinez. The Yankees and Red Sox will still have other talented guys coming up through their system if they get Santana and if giving a starter 6 years backfires, it wouldn't set them nearly as far back as it would for the Mets. The Mets are offering basically the only elite prospects they have while the Yankees and Red Sox still have guys like Jose Tabata and Lars Anderson for the future.

I'd welcome a trade with either Gomez or Martinez but not both leaving, we would have no insurance policy. We'd be reduced to filling all of our holes through free agency like the early 00's Yankees.
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Re: Santana's Future

Postby jnormy » Fri Jan 18, 2008 11:00 am

whitesox04champs wrote:From what I've been reading, the Mets are fading out of the race...


Do you have a link? All the most recent updates I've seen from fantasy sites -- Rotoworld, RotoTimes, SI.com, CBS Sportsline, etc. -- indicate the Mets are very much in the race, and indeed would be the frontrunners if they would be willing to give up Martinez. Where did you read that they are "fading"?
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Re: Santana's Future

Postby DC_Commish » Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:44 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:It's hard to imagine the Mets upping their offer because if they dealt all 5 guys for Santana, their farm system will be nonexistent.


As I do more research, Grounded Polo, I think you may be right that the Mets are unlikely to raise their offer. I suppose the deal hinges on whether Minnesota views the mentioned prospects as highly as the Mets do.

This article from Wednesday's Minneapolis Star Tribune may interest people. Key takeaways from the article:

    * "Twins officials privately say they think Santana will be traded before spring training opens next month."
    * "Lately, the Twins have seemed most intrigued with the Mets' offer."
    * If traded, Gomez may start in center field immediately.
    * "The Twins are much higher on Martinez, 19, and Guerra, 18, even though they realize both might be in the minors until 2010."
    * "If the Red Sox and Yankees don't improve their offers -- and the Twins have reason to believe they won't -- Santana could wind up with the Mets."

It's hardly the last word on Santana, but I thought folks would be interested.
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Re: Santana's Future

Postby GDormz » Fri Jan 18, 2008 10:48 pm

I think Boston should get him for an offer involving Lester but NOT Ellsbury.. Maybe lester and Coco?


But from what I read, the Mets are number 1 in the race
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Re: Santana's Future

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Sun Jan 20, 2008 12:20 am

That latest from mlbtraderumors.com Jan. 18 wrote:Fernando Martinez May Be Key To Santana Deal
Nothing groundbreaking here, but Ken Davidoff spoke to "an industry offical familiar with Minnesota's trade discussions," who believes the inclusion of young outfielder Fernando Martinez could close the Johan Santana deal for the Mets. Davidoff notes that some combination of Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey would have to be in there too. Perhaps the sides will ultimately agree on Martinez and all the rest except for Gomez.

The Yankees and Red Sox remain in the mix, though the Yanks seem ready to move on.
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Re: Santana's Future

Postby blubombers » Sun Jan 20, 2008 12:07 pm

The Mets should do this. They need an intimidating pitcher to bring the whole rotation from the middle of the pack to the top. Send Martinez, keep Gomez, everybodies happy, and the rest is history. Win now!

The A's and Twin's have been getting prospects for years and have not won a World Series with that process. Yes, they get talent but not all the talent they trade for equates to All star players. When they do get players who are superb and the A's or Twins actually get into contention then they trade the super stars for more prospects and the rebuilding process starts all over again without anything to show for it but a low revenue team. Just my opinion of course. I don't mean to offend any of the fans of these teams. I just feel like as soon as the team is prepared to make a run at the playoffs they are trading their high priced super stars for minor league talent and out of the race again. Kind of depressing to me as a fan... :,-(
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Re: Santana's Future

Postby jfg » Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:20 am

blubombers wrote:The Mets should do this. They need an intimidating pitcher to bring the whole rotation from the middle of the pack to the top. Send Martinez, keep Gomez, everybodies happy, and the rest is history. Win now!

The A's and Twin's have been getting prospects for years and have not won a World Series with that process. Yes, they get talent but not all the talent they trade for equates to All star players. When they do get players who are superb and the A's or Twins actually get into contention then they trade the super stars for more prospects and the rebuilding process starts all over again without anything to show for it but a low revenue team. Just my opinion of course. I don't mean to offend any of the fans of these teams. I just feel like as soon as the team is prepared to make a run at the playoffs they are trading their high priced super stars for minor league talent and out of the race again. Kind of depressing to me as a fan... :,-(


Every fan of those teams knows this is the case and it sucks. That's why you're slowly hearing small market fans start to gripe about the state of the MLB economy again. Revenue sharing hid the problem for a little bit but fans are starting to see through it. I know a cap has a lot of negatives but something has to be done.

Back to the subject, I always thought the Twins were looking to add Martinez to the deal, not replace Gomez with him. Martinez and Gomez are equal to the value of Ellsbury or Hughes IMO. The other guys are equal to what Boston and NY were adding on. I guess I'd rather have Ellsbury and Lowrie if Martinez and Gomez aren't in the same deal.
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