How do you estimate an auction value for players?

[BaltoBruiser]

As I have posted before, I am in an auction keeper league with 15 other teams. We can select from either league with 16 hitters (2x C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS 5x OF 1 U) and 10 pitchers (4 SP, 2 P, 4 RP) and a bench of up to 8. Between keepers and drafted players, your total draft day salary can be up to $300. Once you start picking up FAs (priced at $10), there is no maximuim on your salary. Contracts are for 3 years and the last year includes a $10 escalation (Yrs 1 and 2 I can have Beckett for $18 but year 3 he will be $28). We use a 6 hitting categories (avg; slg; obp; HRs; RPs (R+RBI-HR); SBs) and 4 pitching categories for scoring (Ws, SVs, Ks, ERA (1.5x); WHIP (1.5x) for scoring with the best team receiving 16 points in each category and the worst team getting 1 excpet for ERA and WHIP where you get 24 to 1.5.

So as I start to prepare for this year's auction, how should I start to put an auction value on players based on their projections for 2008? How do you factor in the fact that I am going to only have between 190 and 200 to spend at the auction due to my keeper decisions? Does this really have an impact on the values of "non-keepers"?

Thanks in advance,
Bruiser

[BaltoBruiser]

Bump, no one out there can help with this?

Bruiser

[dmendro]

alot of sites out there give advice for standard scoring leagues with Auctions. there are some software tools for projection auction values that use complex formulas to determine their estimated auction values based on your scoring for your league. Try insiderbabseball.com. It's not free though.

[Matthias]

You're sort of asking two questions.

1) How do you calculate auction values? By using this method and whatever 2008 projections you believe the most. Or, as demendro mentions, find a site that will do it for you.

2) Does your keeper decisions play a part in how to value, "non-keepers"? Well, your keeper decisions, not really. The whole league's keeper decisions, yes.

Say you figure out all the players who, "should" be drafted in your league and have assigned values to them using the link above. The total value of those players should be $4,800 (you have 16 teams and $300/team to spend... 16 x $300 = $4,800). Now you figure out who everyone is keeping and realize that if you add up everyone's keepers, their total salary is $200. But their salary if they were on the open market should be, using the method above, $1,000. What does that do? It means that there is an extra $800 floating around in the league, waiting to be spent. It can't be spent on extra players... everyone still would want the same players they would before. So it's just going to drive up prices. Specifically, it's going to drive up prices by the factor of $4,800/$4,000 = 48/40 = 6/5 = 120%. So you would take the values you get out of figuring out everyone's prices and then add another 20%. This is what's called, "keeper inflation" ... if you poke around, you'll see it talked about.

But no, the money you have to spend doesn't affect your decisions. You still always want to get the biggest bang for your buck.

[MTUCache]

Excellent post, but I'd like to include one small caveat regarding the effects of "keeper" leagues.

Not only does the inflation factor that Matthias explained come into effect (the extra money out there driving up prices due to people keeping under-valued keepers), but in keeper auctions money tends to creep towards the two extremes, towards the top with star players that people intend on keeping, and towards the bottom with prospect players who people are hoping to have a couple of extra bucks to ensure that they get.

Although a rookie prospect's "value" may only be $1 or $2 according to your projections, plenty of owners out there will gladly spend $3 or $5 on a hot prospect hoping to strike gold. Not only does it make them feel better about "finding the gem" (even if they just read about him here), but it also gives them an opportunity to make that money back by keeping him the following year and getting the extra value out of him then.

Owners looking to "rebuild" thier teams may alter their draft strategy away from big-ticket guys, knowing that one expensive player isn't going to get them to a championship this year. So, they'll reserve their money until the end of the auction and throw that extra money at a bunch of risky prospects, hoping that one or two of them will pan out and give them a strong base for the following year, when they can retain them for very little money and then use all that extra money to buy those big-ticket guys to go with them.

It's a risky strategy, because you don't want to be left with money at the end of the draft, but there are sneaky owners out there who would rather skip out on the $30+ players and buy up a bunch of prospects for $3 or $4 (that you were only willing or able to spend $1-2 on) hoping to find the next B.J. Upton and Ryan Braun in the same year.

So... anyway... yes, keeper league auctions can be impacted by long-term strategy. Owners with different goals than you can have radically different values on players near the beginning and the end of the draft.

Just something to keep in mind when you're putting together your projected prices for players.

[talan37]

I went through something like this process last year. It isn't difficult once you have a feel for using excel and how exactly you want to do it, although setting it up the first time will probably take some time. That was the first year in an auction keeper draft, and i am really excited about this coming draft, lots more strategy involved. I thought my player valuations turned out very good(players who on my scale "overspent" often did poorly, players who got good value did well).

One thing to look for, if your not doing a typical 5x5 you can find a lot more "hidden value" since I have found many owners will simply use the rankings you see all over the web.(which aren't the same if your not doing a 5x5). So follow the process that was given, do some personal adjustments based on what you read/know about a given player, and go from there.