Fukudome vs. Other prospects

[05worldserieschamps]

I wonder what kind of impact Fukudome will have this year? Jim Callis has him ahead of Josh Vitters on the Cubs top 10 and said he would be 21-30 on his Top 100. Thats not bad. However, are these Japanese players too overhyped? I mean, Dice K was a #1 overall prospect by BA. he only went 15-12 and a 4.40 ERA last year, and it wasnt exactly his rookie season. Im sure a lot of the prospects behind him will easily beat that type of production. I just dont see Fukudome doing much at all.

Any projections on him and where would you put him on your prospect list?

[cardinal1975]

He should probably hit around .280-.305 8-14hr 15-30steals 90-105 runs if hitting leadoff or in the #2 hole. The question with Fukudome is whether you would like a major league ready OF (albeit with an injury history) with little to no upside or a younger prospect (possibly up to four years away from the majors) that has the potential to be an all-star or a complete bust. If you want a single you take Fukudome....if you are swinging for the fences and are not afraid to strike out, you take aonther player.

[thomasps3]

The reason Callis and the people over at BA value Fukudome so highly is because of the **certainty** that he will produce at the major league level, and do so at a pretty good level. The question you have to ask yourself about prospecting is this:
When was the last time you loved a guy and he went bust?
--For example, think about your favorite team. I am sure you have fallen for a prospect that didn't pan out for whatever reason. Fo me, that guy is Craig Hansen. He is lights years away from where I thought he would have been by now, hanging out in AAA when I thought he would be the Sox closer.

Now, in the context of Fukudome, I believe we can reasonably expect this line next year, in the Cubs lineup that if they add B-Rob could be vastly improved:
.315
12 HR
90 Rs
70 RBI
10 SBs

Which as a rookie would give quite a good haul.

[05worldserieschamps]

I know, I understand the certainty thing. But he has a better chance to perform in the Majors than the 20 or so guys Callis has above him.

And beside, is he really that much of a guarantee to perform at the ML level? Dice K was one of the biggest players ever to come over to America from Japan. He was a #1 overall prospect, but even he only had a 4.40 era. Not bad, but overhyped. If he is overhyped, what I cant see Fukudome doing much.

[thomasps3]

So here is where the rubber hits the road. In 3 mock drafts I have done so far this year, I have grabbed Fukudome anywhere from the 17th to the 21st round. In direct comparison to Dice-K and the hoopka last year(going in rounds 6-11), that is great value and as such, I have no problem with where I have projected his numbers to be. Anything eearlier than the 15th though, and I am letting the other guy grab him.

[cardinal1975]

Let's remember that any power numbers will be cut by at least half if not more. HMatsui was a 50 hr hitter, KMatsui was a 30 hr hitter, Iwamura was also a 30-40 hr guy. They have all shown solid average on the adjustment but would anyone care about HMatsui if he was not a Yankee. He drives in an scores 100runs and rbi's based on his lineup he inhabits. His power numbers are average to below average for a corner guy. He also hit only 16hr after hitting "50hr" previously in Japan. Fukudome has had numerous injuries the last three years in Japan where they play fewer games. He is a solid pick, however he has more question marks than many recent imports in my opinion.

[trek81]

Just something to add, Aki Iwamura hit .311/389/544 his last season in Japan. His first season with TB- .285/359/411. And the HRs dropped from 32 to 7.

Fukudome's line last season was- .351/438/653 with 31 HRS. He missed '05 and his line in '04 was .277/368/569 with 23 HRS. And prior to that he had 4 other season were he hit less than 20 jacks.


Ill admit though that Fukudome will play in a better hitters park his 1st season and a much easier division. Plus Aki dealt with an oblique injury in May last season.