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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Jan 11, 2008 10:14 am

You could bring some facts to the table; that would certainly influence my opinion.

The Sox won 72 games last year, and by Pythags they were actually 2-3 games lucky. Compared to last year, they've lost a half-season of Iguchi and Garland. They've added Swisher, Cabrera, Quentin, and Linebrink. Other than Crede and McDougal, they have no players who had a significant under or over performance in 2007. A rebound from Crede may help less than it appears by comparison to last year, because Fields filled in credibly, and we still don't know how healthy Crede is--back injuries can be a lingering problem. Still, Crede/Fields/Quentin should out-perform what they got at 3B/Lf/bench last year. McDougal and Linebrink should help the bullpen. On net...

Garland: -5
Iguchi -2
Swisher: +6
Cabrera: +2
Crede/Fields/Quentin: +4
Bullpen: +3

Total, so far: +8

Which still leaves the Sox scraping to get to .500. I think KW has made some very nice moves, and a trade of Konerko or Crede might add more in one area of weakness than it would cost. But, over the past 5 years, it's never taken less than 90 games to win the AL Central and the last three years, it's taken 95+. Over the past 5 years,it's never taken less than 94 games to win the Wild Card. So, imo, the Sox need to be targeting 90-95 wins to be a contender. They are still 12-17 wins short of that number, and I don't see any single move, set of moves, or likely rebounds from the existing roster that will get them there. They could get a nice 3-5 win bounce from one of the young guys like Richar or Quentin, but they could also see a complete collapse in one of their older players critical to their performance. Counting on all the good things happening and none of the bad things happening is wishful fan thinking, not careful analysis of a team.

So, short of a huge lucky charm, the best the Sox can do this year is likely to be around .500. I would not be surprised at all to see them in the high 70s/low 80s. But, that's not contending in the AL.
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Re: White Sox

Postby Yoda » Fri Jan 11, 2008 11:19 am

It will be funny if the Sox do well this year with everyone so down on them.
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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Jan 11, 2008 11:59 am

Yoda wrote:It will be funny if the Sox do well this year with everyone so down on them.


The one ray of hope...remember my Soriano predictions!!
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Re: White Sox

Postby Old_Style » Fri Jan 11, 2008 8:35 pm

The local ABC sports guy is reporting that Ozzie Guillen is scouting Bartolo Colon down in the Domincan League.
He's got to be a worth a few wins, right?

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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Jan 11, 2008 11:44 pm

Depends. Does Ozzie have a time machine with him so he can bring back the 2005 Colon, or is he stuck with the 2008 Colon?
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Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:18 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:You could bring some facts to the table; that would certainly influence my opinion.

The Sox won 72 games last year, and by Pythags they were actually 2-3 games lucky. Compared to last year, they've lost a half-season of Iguchi and Garland. They've added Swisher, Cabrera, Quentin, and Linebrink. Other than Crede and McDougal, they have no players who had a significant under or over performance in 2007. A rebound from Crede may help less than it appears by comparison to last year, because Fields filled in credibly, and we still don't know how healthy Crede is--back injuries can be a lingering problem. Still, Crede/Fields/Quentin should out-perform what they got at 3B/Lf/bench last year. McDougal and Linebrink should help the bullpen. On net...

Garland: -5
Iguchi -2
Swisher: +6
Cabrera: +2
Crede/Fields/Quentin: +4
Bullpen: +3

Total, so far: +8

Which still leaves the Sox scraping to get to .500. I think KW has made some very nice moves, and a trade of Konerko or Crede might add more in one area of weakness than it would cost. But, over the past 5 years, it's never taken less than 90 games to win the AL Central and the last three years, it's taken 95+. Over the past 5 years,it's never taken less than 94 games to win the Wild Card. So, imo, the Sox need to be targeting 90-95 wins to be a contender. They are still 12-17 wins short of that number, and I don't see any single move, set of moves, or likely rebounds from the existing roster that will get them there. They could get a nice 3-5 win bounce from one of the young guys like Richar or Quentin, but they could also see a complete collapse in one of their older players critical to their performance. Counting on all the good things happening and none of the bad things happening is wishful fan thinking, not careful analysis of a team.

So, short of a huge lucky charm, the best the Sox can do this year is likely to be around .500. I would not be surprised at all to see them in the high 70s/low 80s. But, that's not contending in the AL.



You see, there ar eso many problems with the way you do that. Getting Crede back is going to be a bigger help than you think, barring that he returns to 2005 form. Cabrera may be +2, but after losing Uribe, he is more like +5. Losing Garland will be the only real hurt to us. You cant count Iguchi as he was traded during the season last year.

But the biggest problem is bullpen. The bullpen probably cost us at least 8-10 games single handidly. Thats not good for a bullpen, not at all. Even if Mike Macdougal doesnt return to dominant form like pre-2007(1.55 ERA in 2006) he should see a huge improvment. That, along with one of the best set up men in the game, will drastically improve our bullpen, and it will turn into a strength instead of a weakness.
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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:39 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:You see, there ar eso many problems with the way you do that. Getting Crede back is going to be a bigger help than you think, barring that he returns to 2005 form. Cabrera may be +2, but after losing Uribe, he is more like +5. Losing Garland will be the only real hurt to us. You cant count Iguchi as he was traded during the season last year.

But the biggest problem is bullpen. The bullpen probably cost us at least 8-10 games single handidly. Thats not good for a bullpen, not at all. Even if Mike Macdougal doesnt return to dominant form like pre-2007(1.55 ERA in 2006) he should see a huge improvment. That, along with one of the best set up men in the game, will drastically improve our bullpen, and it will turn into a strength instead of a weakness.


The problem with the way you do it is you always assume the best case scenario. Crede may not even return at all. If he does, then he replaces Fields, who played very well in 2007, so you lose the production of Fields, and the net gain of Crede is reduced. Instead maybe Fields plays LF. Effectively, then , Crede replaces Pod, and that's an improvement. But then Quentin goes to the bench, and instead of replacing Pods and getting 500 ABs, he gets 200Bs as a sub, and his addition to the 2008 team is reduced. Having all three guys improves your team, but at least one of them has no regular position to play, so the benefit is less than for a full-time starter.

First, you have not lost Uribe. He may play 2B. Second, the +2 I gave Cabrera, is the net effect. It already factors improvement by Uribe's removal from SS. The problem is not that I've forgotten to do that, but that you have a huge overrating on how good Cabrera is likely to be compared to Uribe.

Yes, you MUST count Iguchi. Last year you had nearly 400 ABs from Iguchi. That contributed to your total season wins. This year you will have ZERO ABs from Iguchi, so you must subtract his contribution. I went to BPro and subtracted only the wins provided by Iguchi for the time he played in Chicago last year.

Yes, the bullpen was awful--11 games worse than Boston. But, do you really think the moves you are making will turn the Sox into the best bullpen in baseball? That's fanboy optimism. Instead, you are likely to gain a few of those games, moving back towards an average bullpen. Could be three wins. Could be 5. Could be 1. It's not likely to be the 10 or 11 that would represent becoming the best bullpen in baseball.
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Re: White Sox

Postby ayebatter » Sun Jan 13, 2008 1:05 am

I don't believe it - NINE pages under a White Sox thread, match that you Cubbies. :-b
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Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Sun Jan 13, 2008 1:25 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
05worldserieschamps wrote:You see, there ar eso many problems with the way you do that. Getting Crede back is going to be a bigger help than you think, barring that he returns to 2005 form. Cabrera may be +2, but after losing Uribe, he is more like +5. Losing Garland will be the only real hurt to us. You cant count Iguchi as he was traded during the season last year.

But the biggest problem is bullpen. The bullpen probably cost us at least 8-10 games single handidly. Thats not good for a bullpen, not at all. Even if Mike Macdougal doesnt return to dominant form like pre-2007(1.55 ERA in 2006) he should see a huge improvment. That, along with one of the best set up men in the game, will drastically improve our bullpen, and it will turn into a strength instead of a weakness.


The problem with the way you do it is you always assume the best case scenario. Crede may not even return at all. If he does, then he replaces Fields, who played very well in 2007, so you lose the production of Fields, and the net gain of Crede is reduced. Instead maybe Fields plays LF. Effectively, then , Crede replaces Pod, and that's an improvement. But then Quentin goes to the bench, and instead of replacing Pods and getting 500 ABs, he gets 200Bs as a sub, and his addition to the 2008 team is reduced. Having all three guys improves your team, but at least one of them has no regular position to play, so the benefit is less than for a full-time starter.

First, you have not lost Uribe. He may play 2B. Second, the +2 I gave Cabrera, is the net effect. It already factors improvement by Uribe's removal from SS. The problem is not that I've forgotten to do that, but that you have a huge overrating on how good Cabrera is likely to be compared to Uribe.

Yes, you MUST count Iguchi. Last year you had nearly 400 ABs from Iguchi. That contributed to your total season wins. This year you will have ZERO ABs from Iguchi, so you must subtract his contribution. I went to BPro and subtracted only the wins provided by Iguchi for the time he played in Chicago last year.

Yes, the bullpen was awful--11 games worse than Boston. But, do you really think the moves you are making will turn the Sox into the best bullpen in baseball? That's fanboy optimism. Instead, you are likely to gain a few of those games, moving back towards an average bullpen. Could be three wins. Could be 5. Could be 1. It's not likely to be the 10 or 11 that would represent becoming the best bullpen in baseball.



1. You're right. Most of the time I do consider the best case scenario. Look, I never said we were going to win this thing. Its a tough division to win. What I said is that we are a major contender, and barring that things go the way we plan(a la, best case scenario, which isnt really unrealistic by any means), I think we COULD win.

2. I dont think Ive overrated Cabrera, just how bad Uribe is. He is awful, and Orlando Cabrera is a good baseball player. I dont care what you have to say about his OPS, he fits in perfectly with our team. He makes the plays out at short, puts the ball in play, he adds a speed component and can be a very good 2 hole hitter. These intangables are things you cant get from stats. And Uribe added just the opposite effect, being a terrible 8 hole hitter, striking out ALL THE TIME and adding little to no speed to an already slow lineup.

3. LOL. It must be easy to win an argument when you get to decide what the other person says. What I said: With the addition of Linebrink and the possible bounceback of Macdougal along with some other arms in our 'pen that underperformed last year, that our bullpen could become a strength of our team instead of the weakest part of our game.
What you said I said: "But, do you really think the moves you are making will turn the Sox into the best bullpen in baseball? That's fanboy optimism." ....."It's not likely to be the 10 or 11 that would represent becoming the best bullpen in baseball"

Thats such a joke. I think what I said was entirely accurate. Mike Macdougal had a uncharachteristic down year, as did most of our bullpen. Along with that, add one of the best MRP/SU in the game in Scott Linebrink and you have a pretty good bullpen. Of course, not to mention Bobby Jenks(2.77 era, 40 saves the last 2 seasons, 26 years old) who is pretty overlooked, generally. Thats a pretty good bullpen. Do i think the best in baseball? Of couse not. Probably not even in the top 10. But its certainly isnt the worst in baseball....anymore.

PS: On the note of you saying bullpens are overrated, just look at World Series winners. Aside from maybe the Cardinals(who really just got hot at the right time), the winner has had probably the best bullpen for as long as I can remember. Bullpen is important.
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Re: White Sox

Postby AussieDodger » Sun Jan 13, 2008 2:08 am

This thread is hilarious. :-D

Agnes you are absolutely right , although I think you are slightly under-estimating Quentin. He OBPed more then .420 at every minor league stop he made. 2008 might be the year where it clicks for him , he is definitely not a .298 OBP hitter like 2007.
I also think the White Sox will start Crede over Fields if they can , so that will take one or two wins off. :-t

05champs , you won't be winning anything with your dodgy 3 man rotation. You must get more pitching.



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bigh0rt wrote:At least start reading and assessing what is presented to you. It's like you're just ignoring it and repeating yourself with diatribe that you could've gotten out of a scout's mouth in 1965.
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