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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Jan 06, 2008 6:07 pm

Ender wrote:

20-30 runs could be the difference in 5-8 ballgames. Id say an extra 5-8 wins is well worth it.


It could be but in general 10 runs = 1 win so you'd assume it is 2-3 wins. These things obviously are pretty tricky since they disagree so much, as Tavish pointed out WARP says just 2.4 wins different last season(I'm not a fan of WARP myself). But when all of the systems point at a 2+ win difference it is pretty clear that this is a significant upgrade for them at SS.


I'd say it's just semantics. I'd confine "off the wall, phenomenal, mind-bending" to a move like Swisher for Owens--adding 6+ wins from one move is pretty rare. I'd still call the Uribe/Cabrera swap, which I think is problem a 2 win improvement, modest.
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Re: White Sox

Postby Ender » Sun Jan 06, 2008 11:17 pm

Well especially since the Swisher deal is for 5 more seasons. I didn't like it at first but I didn't realize how long they still owned him. They can ride him for 4 years and if they aren't competitive by then he'll still bring back a lot in trade.
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Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Sun Jan 06, 2008 11:24 pm

Ender wrote:

20-30 runs could be the difference in 5-8 ballgames. Id say an extra 5-8 wins is well worth it.


It could be but in general 10 runs = 1 win so you'd assume it is 2-3 wins. These things obviously are pretty tricky since they disagree so much, as Tavish pointed out WARP says just 2.4 wins different last season(I'm not a fan of WARP myself). But when all of the systems point at a 2+ win difference it is pretty clear that this is a significant upgrade for them at SS.



I dont see how 10 runs equals a win? In some cases, yes. But in the bottom of the 9th of a tie game, Orlando Cabrera does something that Uribe usually doesnt do(which is basically anything), thats another win. I think you guys are way underestimating how bad Uribe was. I mean, at least OCab puts the ball in play. Cabrera had almost half of the strikeouts Uribe did. And Uribes OBP was .284. I mean, come on. Thats terrible.

Here is something else as well.

RUNS CREATED

Uribe- 55. Also, usually around that 50-60 mark, even when he doesnt have an OBP of .284.

Cabrera- 91. So you could say Cabrera gives the Sox about 36 more Runs.

IMO, Uribe, OCab=Owens, Swisher. Both are huge Upgrades, but uribe was so bad, I think its just as big an upgrade.
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Re: White Sox

Postby Ender » Mon Jan 07, 2008 11:03 am

Well of course 10 runs could lead to 10 more wins but they could also lead to 0 more wins. I'm just using a global statistic that some math guys came up with that seems to work. The actual formula is RPW = 10 * sqrt (RPG/9)

RUNS PER WIN A measure of how many additional runs it takes to create an additional win. Although the number varies from year to year, Pete Palmer has devised a rule of thumb that states: for each additional ten runs scored, one win results. More specifically, wins are increased in proportion to the square root of runs scored - so runs-per-win is roughly the square root of the number of runs scored per game. Thus, the 10:1 Palmer rule of thumb is fine as long as the runs scored in a game are around 10.



It used to be a bit lower since fewer runs were scored but these days roughly 10 runs = 1 win.
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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Jan 07, 2008 2:14 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:I dont see how 10 runs equals a win? In some cases, yes. But in the bottom of the 9th of a tie game, Orlando Cabrera does something that Uribe usually doesnt do(which is basically anything), thats another win. I think you guys are way underestimating how bad Uribe was. I mean, at least OCab puts the ball in play. Cabrera had almost half of the strikeouts Uribe did. And Uribes OBP was .284. I mean, come on. Thats terrible.

Here is something else as well.

RUNS CREATED

Uribe- 55. Also, usually around that 50-60 mark, even when he doesnt have an OBP of .284.

Cabrera- 91. So you could say Cabrera gives the Sox about 36 more Runs.

IMO, Uribe, OCab=Owens, Swisher. Both are huge Upgrades, but uribe was so bad, I think its just as big an upgrade.


Ender's explained the reason why 10 runs is equivalent to a win, and this has been deomnstrated to hold regarding the relationship between runs scored and allowed and team's winning percentage.

I am not underestimating Uribe at all. He was among the worst players in the league last year. However, you are comparing Cabrera's 2007--his second best year ever as a major leaguer--to Uribe of last year. Cabrera has had some awful years too, like in 2004 when he hit had an OBP of .306 and slugging of .383 or 2005 when he was .309/.365. Unfortunately for the Sox, the predictions suggest that they will get something in between the Cabrera of 2004/5 and 2006/7. I don't disagree that if you get Cabrera's 2007 performance it's a huge upgrade. I just disagree that you'll get that. Instead, I argue you'll get something between the Uribeclone Cabrera of 04-05 and the UberCabrera of 06-07...and that will only be a modest improvement.

And regarding Swisher/Owens, I think your comment is just silly. Owens was as bad or maybe even worse than Uribe last year--he had just 12 XBH in almost 400 at bats; and Swisher is lightyears better than Cabrera, even in OCab's dreams.
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Re: White Sox

Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Jan 07, 2008 4:13 pm

Lofunzo wrote:
05worldserieschamps wrote:Does anyone like what they are doing here? Trading away all prospects to try and win now? Agree or disagree?


It's nice that they are trying to win now but I don't know that's the plan to take with how solid Detroit and Cleveland look. I don't see a quick fix that can overtake the both of them.


That's kind of how I feel. I don't think this is the year to roll the dice and go for it but if you're going to empty the cupboards and make a run then this is the way to go about that. Kenny Williams has gotten some players that are under control for quite awhile and that add value to the current team. I'd rather see them trade away guys for a Nick Swisher than a Hideki Matsui for example. Swisher adds value now and for several years in the future while Matsui would add value now but not necessarily for several years into the future.

I still think Williams is sacrificing too much organizational depth for a window of the next few years. Right now the team is going to be good but they lack the pitching to make the playoffs more than an outside shot this year. Barring massive spending in the free agent markets next year they'll still lack that pitching. Once you lose some of your older guys to decline/retirement then you've got a barren farm system to support Swisher and Quentin.

All of this could change if Chicago managed to have a couple outstanding draft classes. That simply hasn't been part of their history though and they could be looking at a couple seasons of near-misses followed by some really bad teams where Swisher and Quentin are the best players on the team.
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Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Mon Jan 07, 2008 8:16 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
05worldserieschamps wrote:I dont see how 10 runs equals a win? In some cases, yes. But in the bottom of the 9th of a tie game, Orlando Cabrera does something that Uribe usually doesnt do(which is basically anything), thats another win. I think you guys are way underestimating how bad Uribe was. I mean, at least OCab puts the ball in play. Cabrera had almost half of the strikeouts Uribe did. And Uribes OBP was .284. I mean, come on. Thats terrible.

Here is something else as well.

RUNS CREATED

Uribe- 55. Also, usually around that 50-60 mark, even when he doesnt have an OBP of .284.

Cabrera- 91. So you could say Cabrera gives the Sox about 36 more Runs.

IMO, Uribe, OCab=Owens, Swisher. Both are huge Upgrades, but uribe was so bad, I think its just as big an upgrade.


Ender's explained the reason why 10 runs is equivalent to a win, and this has been deomnstrated to hold regarding the relationship between runs scored and allowed and team's winning percentage.

I am not underestimating Uribe at all. He was among the worst players in the league last year. However, you are comparing Cabrera's 2007--his second best year ever as a major leaguer--to Uribe of last year. Cabrera has had some awful years too, like in 2004 when he hit had an OBP of .306 and slugging of .383 or 2005 when he was .309/.365. Unfortunately for the Sox, the predictions suggest that they will get something in between the Cabrera of 2004/5 and 2006/7. I don't disagree that if you get Cabrera's 2007 performance it's a huge upgrade. I just disagree that you'll get that. Instead, I argue you'll get something between the Uribeclone Cabrera of 04-05 and the UberCabrera of 06-07...and that will only be a modest improvement.

And regarding Swisher/Owens, I think your comment is just silly. Owens was as bad or maybe even worse than Uribe last year--he had just 12 XBH in almost 400 at bats; and Swisher is lightyears better than Cabrera, even in OCab's dreams.



I disagree. I understand Cabrera had down years too, but Uribe was one of the worst players in the league last year. Orlando Cabrera has never been that type of player. Sure, he has had down years, but he has always contributed something. In his crappy year of 2005, he stole 21 out of 23 bases, hit into only 10 double plays(lowest of his full season career, though I know GIDP isnt a telling stat or anything), but more than anything, put the ball into play. Good things happen when you do that. He struck out his lowest total in his career.(again, full seasons) He also created 63 runs that year, which Uribe has only done once his entire career. Also, Uribe 34 stolen bases(31 CS) in his career. Also, Defense. Uribe has a strong arm, but doesnt bring the same solid defensive effort OCab does. OCab almost always has a better defensive year than Uribe.

However, on the subject of Swisher to Owens, yes it s a huge upgrade(as was OCab/Uribe), but they are two different types of players. At first glance of stats, sure it seems incredably lopsided. But there are factors to consider.

1. Owens was 26. There was so much room for improvement there, and I think Owens could have easily been around .280-5-50 and who knows how many SB. He stole 32 bases in 93 games last year. He could have easily been 40-50 SB this season.

2. His speed. As I already mentioned, very good base stealer for his age. And covers plenty of ground in the OF.

3. Swisher is a power bat. Not to say he wont help a lot, but the middle of our order is already clogged up with Konerko, Dye, Thome, Crede, Pierzynski and now Quentin. These guys, much like Swisher all bring mostly one element to the game-- power. We have that already in our lineup. What we dont have is speed. Now, our best base stealer is 34 year old Orlando Cabrera, who cant move like he used to.

4. Owens can help bring more of the "small ball" approach. Which won a World Series in 2005.

5. Nick Swisher--just what we need. Another .265 hitter and below.

In all, though Swisher is a much better addition than OCab, Jerry Owens at least contributed in a good way to our team. He can help do things that Swisher can't do. However, I'm very much looking foward to seeing Swisher hit in this ball park. I think it could easily make a pretty good player into an All Star.
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Re: White Sox

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jan 07, 2008 9:14 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:
OneLoveBoomer wrote:Yeah the stats can kind of mangle the truth there. The addition of OCab in place of Uribe is huge for the Sox. They gain a solid #2 hitter with a .275-.280 average and some good speed, instead of a #8 or #9 hitter that's a virtual strikeout or ground out except for his all too infrequent hot streaks. Major improvement ;-D


Thats a great point. Sometimes you have to look past the stats.

This just isn't correct. It's the definition of fan banter, and lacks any objectivity. You're being presented with relevant, reasonable facts, and you follow them up with "sometimes you have to look past the stats." If you look at that from a third party perspective, it looks like nothing more than a cop out.
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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Jan 07, 2008 10:08 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:I disagree. I understand Cabrera had down years too, but Uribe was one of the worst players in the league last year. Orlando Cabrera has never been that type of player.


Could you PLEASE pay attention to what is ACTUALLY being written, rather than making up what you would like people to be writing? I'm not saying that Cabrera has been or will be as bad as Uribe was last year. I AM saying that the relevant comparison is not to what Cabrera did in 2007, but what he is likely to do in 2008. And that is very likely to be only modestly better than Uribe's 2007.

05worldserieschamps wrote:However, on the subject of Swisher to Owens, yes it s a huge upgrade(as was OCab/Uribe), but they are two different types of players. At first glance of stats, sure it seems incredably lopsided. But there are factors to consider.

1. Owens was 26. There was so much room for improvement there, and I think Owens could have easily been around .280-5-50 and who knows how many SB. He stole 32 bases in 93 games last year. He could have easily been 40-50 SB this season.

2. His speed. As I already mentioned, very good base stealer for his age. And covers plenty of ground in the OF.

3. Swisher is a power bat. Not to say he wont help a lot, but the middle of our order is already clogged up with Konerko, Dye, Thome, Crede, Pierzynski and now Quentin. These guys, much like Swisher all bring mostly one element to the game-- power. We have that already in our lineup. What we dont have is speed. Now, our best base stealer is 34 year old Orlando Cabrera, who cant move like he used to.

4. Owens can help bring more of the "small ball" approach. Which won a World Series in 2005.

5. Nick Swisher--just what we need. Another .265 hitter and below.

In all, though Swisher is a much better addition than OCab, Jerry Owens at least contributed in a good way to our team. He can help do things that Swisher can't do. However, I'm very much looking foward to seeing Swisher hit in this ball park. I think it could easily make a pretty good player into an All Star.


1. So what? The question isn't what Owens might have done or how much he might improve in 2008. the question for evaluating the impact of this trade for the Sox in 2008 is what Owens DID do in 2007. And he sucked in 2007.

2. So what? Speed is a hugely over-rated part of baseball. His 32 SBs came with a cost of 8 CS. In total he added only about 16 bases to the Sox offense by his running. And every defensive measure I've seen rates him as a below average fielder. Speed is not defense.

3. So what? Swisher is still light years better than Owens. They don't award style points for how your score runs. The Sox score more runs with Swisher than Owens. End of story.

4. The small ball approach did not win you anything. Pitching won you the World Series in 2005. You don't win by scoring fewer runs. You win by scoring more runs or preventing the other team from scoring. The 2005 Sox did not succeed because of their weak offense. They won IN SPITE of it, because of a great pitching performance.

5. So what? Batting average is a silly way to measure offense.

Owens sucked. Possibly even more than Uribe. Here's the numbers:

Batting runs (BPro):

Uribe -23
Owens -11

Fielding runs (BPro):
Uribe 17
Owens -11

Baserunning Runs (Bill James):
Uribe -5.5
Owens +7

In a squeeker, Uribe is -11.5 while Owens is -15.
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Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Mon Jan 07, 2008 10:55 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
05worldserieschamps wrote:I disagree. I understand Cabrera had down years too, but Uribe was one of the worst players in the league last year. Orlando Cabrera has never been that type of player.


Could you PLEASE pay attention to what is ACTUALLY being written, rather than making up what you would like people to be writing? I'm not saying that Cabrera has been or will be as bad as Uribe was last year. I AM saying that the relevant comparison is not to what Cabrera did in 2007, but what he is likely to do in 2008. And that is very likely to be only modestly better than Uribe's 2007.

05worldserieschamps wrote:However, on the subject of Swisher to Owens, yes it s a huge upgrade(as was OCab/Uribe), but they are two different types of players. At first glance of stats, sure it seems incredably lopsided. But there are factors to consider.

1. Owens was 26. There was so much room for improvement there, and I think Owens could have easily been around .280-5-50 and who knows how many SB. He stole 32 bases in 93 games last year. He could have easily been 40-50 SB this season.

2. His speed. As I already mentioned, very good base stealer for his age. And covers plenty of ground in the OF.

3. Swisher is a power bat. Not to say he wont help a lot, but the middle of our order is already clogged up with Konerko, Dye, Thome, Crede, Pierzynski and now Quentin. These guys, much like Swisher all bring mostly one element to the game-- power. We have that already in our lineup. What we dont have is speed. Now, our best base stealer is 34 year old Orlando Cabrera, who cant move like he used to.

4. Owens can help bring more of the "small ball" approach. Which won a World Series in 2005.

5. Nick Swisher--just what we need. Another .265 hitter and below.

In all, though Swisher is a much better addition than OCab, Jerry Owens at least contributed in a good way to our team. He can help do things that Swisher can't do. However, I'm very much looking foward to seeing Swisher hit in this ball park. I think it could easily make a pretty good player into an All Star.


1. So what? The question isn't what Owens might have done or how much he might improve in 2008. the question for evaluating the impact of this trade for the Sox in 2008 is what Owens DID do in 2007. And he sucked in 2007.

2. So what? Speed is a hugely over-rated part of baseball. His 32 SBs came with a cost of 8 CS. In total he added only about 16 bases to the Sox offense by his running. And every defensive measure I've seen rates him as a below average fielder. Speed is not defense.

3. So what? Swisher is still light years better than Owens. They don't award style points for how your score runs. The Sox score more runs with Swisher than Owens. End of story.

4. The small ball approach did not win you anything. Pitching won you the World Series in 2005. You don't win by scoring fewer runs. You win by scoring more runs or preventing the other team from scoring. The 2005 Sox did not succeed because of their weak offense. They won IN SPITE of it, because of a great pitching performance.

5. So what? Batting average is a silly way to measure offense.

Owens sucked. Possibly even more than Uribe. Here's the numbers:

Batting runs (BPro):

Uribe -23
Owens -11

Fielding runs (BPro):
Uribe 17
Owens -11

Baserunning Runs (Bill James):
Uribe -5.5
Owens +7

In a squeeker, Uribe is -11.5 while Owens is -15.


Youre right about the first part. I misunderstood what you were writing.


However...

1. The reason it matters that Owens was young is because he can improve! Uribe has already entered his prime with little to no hope of signifigantly improving. However, Owens has a good chance to improve. Sure, Owens was useless in 2007. But the trade doesnt effect 2007, it effects 2008. Owens was going to be a much better player than Uribe in 2008, simple as that. Maybe not in 2007, but it was his rookie season. Cut him some slack.

2. Ill agree that speed is a little overrated, but speed never slumps. If Juan Uribe is in a slump, then he is in a slump.(gosh, id hate to see a Uribe slump) However, if Jerry Owens isnt hitting the ball great, he can slap a ball towards the 6 hole and beat out a hit. Speed ultimately can raise your average and how many times a player reaches base. Simple as that. Maybe he beats out a few more double play possibilities. Maybe speed is a little overrated, but it isnt useless. Your looking at speed as just stolen bases, but its not.

On that note, I think that speed can greatly effect defense. There will be more balls hit in the gap that maybe Jerry Owens' speed could reach than Swishers speed could even think about getting to. Speed helps. Ill be the first to agree there are more important things like...judging a fly ball. But still, flat out speed is more valuable than that at times.

3. I totally agree that they score more runs with Swisher than Owens. However, there will be situations and times when Owens would have helped more than Swisher. Thats my point. He brings a different type of play the Sox dont have right now. If they face a Sabathia, Carmona, Santana or Bonderman and are getting shut down offensively, maybe Owens can make something happen and get a run Swisher couldnt with straight out hitting. Of course they get more runs with Swisher, but Owens still gets runs Swisher cant. I honestly believe that there isnt anything Juan Uribe can do that Orlando Cabrera can't. And I would probably rather have Orlando Cabrera is 162 of 162 games this year.

4. I can mostly agree with that statement, however I dont think they won IN SPITE of it. Pitching doesnt win championships, pitching AND hitting wins championships. Pitching was our best attribute in 2005, however small ball may mean scoring more runs over the long term, but also for more wins. The small ball approach is built when you have good pitching and are facing good pitching, which is why its successful in the playoffs. However, point #4 wasnt a big point anyway. It just looks better to have 5 points.

5. In some situations, yes. But last year, we needed someone to have an average over .276, and we didnt. Having .300 hitters helps, regardless of how poor you say the measurment is. And, for the most part, walks are going to come. but having someone that can flat out hit is extremely important. Not to say Owens is that guy, but average isnt a completely useless stat.
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