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Re: White Sox

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Sat Jan 05, 2008 4:33 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:ss: modest improvement

8-o

Nice analysis overall, but you're probably going to have to replace "modest" here with "off-the-wall, phenomenal, and mind-bending." OCab over Uribe!
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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jan 05, 2008 6:01 pm

OneLoveBoomer wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:ss: modest improvement

8-o

Nice analysis overall, but you're probably going to have to replace "modest" here with "off-the-wall, phenomenal, and mind-bending." OCab over Uribe!



No, not really. Uribe's OPS was .678, while Cabrera's was .742 last year, but Cabrera's not likely to sustain that. Career OPS+ puts Uribe at 80 and Cabrera at 86. Projections for Cabrera next year range from an OPS of .702 (ZiPS), .709 (Bill James), to .715 (Chone Smith). You are overestimating the improvement Cabrera provides because he was above norms last year. He'll still best Uribe, but given his career history and his age, you should expect a 20-30 point improvement in OPS. That's modest, not phenomenal.
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Re: White Sox

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Sat Jan 05, 2008 7:08 pm

Yeah the stats can kind of mangle the truth there. The addition of OCab in place of Uribe is huge for the Sox. They gain a solid #2 hitter with a .275-.280 average and some good speed, instead of a #8 or #9 hitter that's a virtual strikeout or ground out except for his all too infrequent hot streaks. Major improvement ;-D
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Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Sat Jan 05, 2008 11:58 pm

OneLoveBoomer wrote:Yeah the stats can kind of mangle the truth there. The addition of OCab in place of Uribe is huge for the Sox. They gain a solid #2 hitter with a .275-.280 average and some good speed, instead of a #8 or #9 hitter that's a virtual strikeout or ground out except for his all too infrequent hot streaks. Major improvement ;-D


Thats a great point. Sometimes you have to look past the stats.
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Re: White Sox

Postby Ender » Sun Jan 06, 2008 12:12 am

keep in mind OBP is roughly 1.8 times more valuable than SLG.

Uribe - .234, .284, .394, .678, 3.5 RC/G
O-Cab - .301, .345, .397, .742, 5.1 RC/G

That is also with Cabrera in a pitchers park and Uribe in a hitters park.

Uribe was a -17.3 rated SS. Cabrera only -6.5 so that is another 10ish runs on Cabrera's side. Cabrera adds marginal value with his baserunning as well. That is a pretty big upgrade for them, probably in the range of 40-50 runs or somewhere around 4-5 wins just with that one player (not counting whatever happens with Garland's replacement as a pitcher of course).

I still think the White Sox are a 3rd place team though, they don't have the pitching and I'm not conviced their hitting is better than the Indians and my money is on it being a good bit worse than the Tigers.
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Re: White Sox

Postby thedude » Sun Jan 06, 2008 1:23 am

Orlando is a great player, but he does have those off the field issues, which worried both the red sox and Angles.
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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Jan 06, 2008 8:15 am

Ender wrote:keep in mind OBP is roughly 1.8 times more valuable than SLG.

Uribe - .234, .284, .394, .678, 3.5 RC/G
O-Cab - .301, .345, .397, .742, 5.1 RC/G

That is also with Cabrera in a pitchers park and Uribe in a hitters park.

Uribe was a -17.3 rated SS. Cabrera only -6.5 so that is another 10ish runs on Cabrera's side. Cabrera adds marginal value with his baserunning as well. That is a pretty big upgrade for them, probably in the range of 40-50 runs or somewhere around 4-5 wins just with that one player (not counting whatever happens with Garland's replacement as a pitcher of course).

I still think the White Sox are a 3rd place team though, they don't have the pitching and I'm not conviced their hitting is better than the Indians and my money is on it being a good bit worse than the Tigers.


Again, however, Cabrera is unlikely to duplicate that his career BA is .273 and his career OBP is .321 and he's 33. He's not likely to hit .300 with an OBP of .345, which was the second highest of his career.

If Cabrera hits like he did last year, then yes, it's a huge improvement. On the other hand, if he hits like most of the projection systems say he will, then it's a modest offensive improvement---20-30 runs, not 40-50.
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Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Sun Jan 06, 2008 10:58 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Ender wrote:keep in mind OBP is roughly 1.8 times more valuable than SLG.

Uribe - .234, .284, .394, .678, 3.5 RC/G
O-Cab - .301, .345, .397, .742, 5.1 RC/G

That is also with Cabrera in a pitchers park and Uribe in a hitters park.

Uribe was a -17.3 rated SS. Cabrera only -6.5 so that is another 10ish runs on Cabrera's side. Cabrera adds marginal value with his baserunning as well. That is a pretty big upgrade for them, probably in the range of 40-50 runs or somewhere around 4-5 wins just with that one player (not counting whatever happens with Garland's replacement as a pitcher of course).

I still think the White Sox are a 3rd place team though, they don't have the pitching and I'm not conviced their hitting is better than the Indians and my money is on it being a good bit worse than the Tigers.


Again, however, Cabrera is unlikely to duplicate that his career BA is .273 and his career OBP is .321 and he's 33. He's not likely to hit .300 with an OBP of .345, which was the second highest of his career.

If Cabrera hits like he did last year, then yes, it's a huge improvement. On the other hand, if he hits like most of the projection systems say he will, then it's a modest offensive improvement---20-30 runs, not 40-50.



20-30 runs could be the difference in 5-8 ballgames. Id say an extra 5-8 wins is well worth it.
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Re: White Sox

Postby Tavish » Sun Jan 06, 2008 12:11 pm

Uribe's WARP last season was 3.7 and Cabrera's was 6.1. Assuming O-Cab's production remains at the 2007 level you are looking at maybe an improvement of 2 wins. If Dye and Konerko can get back to around 6 (Both were around 4 in 2007 and around 7 in 2006) and Crede can even get back to the 3 WARP range (he was around 1 in 2007 and over 6 in 2006) then the Sox should see about 6 more wins from just those 3 players. Getting Swisher is a major improvement if he is able to play CF where the White Sox only generated about 2 WARP in 2007. Swisher should be able to produce in the 6 range. 12 more wins from the offense gets them back over .500 but still not enough to really challenge the Indians or Tigers. They are still going to need some over-production from the pitchers to cover the loss of Garland and some outstanding years from the lineup ala 2006 to have a shot.
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Re: White Sox

Postby Ender » Sun Jan 06, 2008 1:08 pm


20-30 runs could be the difference in 5-8 ballgames. Id say an extra 5-8 wins is well worth it.


It could be but in general 10 runs = 1 win so you'd assume it is 2-3 wins. These things obviously are pretty tricky since they disagree so much, as Tavish pointed out WARP says just 2.4 wins different last season(I'm not a fan of WARP myself). But when all of the systems point at a 2+ win difference it is pretty clear that this is a significant upgrade for them at SS.
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