White Sox - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Chicago White Sox

White Sox

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: White Sox

Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Jan 16, 2008 10:13 am

It's highly likely that many members of the Cafe know more about baseball than several major league GM's. That doesn't mean we'd be better as GM's though. There's a TON that goes in to being a successful GM and baseball knowledge is just a part of the entire picture. Honestly, you could be a major league GM with NO baseball knowledge as long as you hired the right scouts and advisers. So yes, it's definitely possible (even likely) that several Cafe members know more baseball than several major league GM's. It's less likely that several of us have the unique blend of talents that would make us a success GM ourselves.
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7290
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Wed Jan 16, 2008 11:13 pm

AussieDodger wrote:
05worldserieschamps wrote:Screw career OPS. Thats useless.


Wow 8-o 8-o 8-o


It is completely useless. I didnt say OPS was useless, but CAREER Ops is. Why does it matter what Paul Konerko did 8 years ago? It doesnt. He could have hit 70 hr of 5 hr, the fact is, he was projected AROUND 35-42 hr, a .300+ avg and 100+rbi. He did not meet those numbers.

The only stats that matter are those that have been put up in the last 2-3 years, maybe 4.

Does anyone disagree with that statement? If they do they are completely wrong. Paul Konerko is a perfect example. Maybe he was close to his career OPS. So what? The years(last 2-3) when he was a premiere hitter are the only ones that matter.


Lets get some more examples, shall we?

Carlos Pena- Now, I dont fully expect him to repeat last season by any means, but do I expect him to drop back down to his career OPS of .846 after putting up a 1.037 ops last season? NO.

Aramis Ramirez- His career OPS is .836, yet the last time he was under .910 was 2003. The last 4 years, he has been average around .925, yet you still say career OPS matters in his case.

Frank Thomas wont touch his career OPS of .982.(.857 last year. probably a bad example because of age, but he is my favorite player)

Is Mike Sweeney going to jump up from a .719 OPS to his career average of .861??

These are just a few random names, there are many more. Career ANYTHING(as terms of average) is so incredably useless. Holding it against a player what he did 7+ years ago is just insane.
Is pushing for President Obama to pass a law requiring all citizens to be Chicago White Sox fans and make October 1st "White Sox Day" where we all dress as our favorite player. It maybe socialist, but I don't care.
05worldserieschamps
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1059
Joined: 2 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Kentucky

Re: White Sox

Postby Ender » Thu Jan 17, 2008 1:15 am

the fact is, he was projected AROUND 35-42 hr, a .300+ avg and 100+rbi.


I do not disagree with you at all that career OPS is useless for projecting this year's OPS. In fact I'm dubious about the fact that 3 years ago really matters much for players and I think ZiPs puts too much stock in 3 year's ago for their projections. Having said that I don't think you had a realistic projection for Konerko last year which is causing problems. Last year I projected Konerko for a .285 AVG and 32 HR's, very few people projected him anywhere near 300+ AVG and 35-42 HR's.

The White Sox strength these past 3-4 years has been keeping their SP healthy, whether that is skill or luck I dunno but it is really rare to have a pitcher stay healthy for 180+ IP 3 years in a row and the white sox are one of only a few teams that have beaten that trend. I cannot say why they have but they have.

You can say a lot of things about the White Sox this season but i don't think you can say their SP is a team strength going into the year, I haven't done the final math but I doubt they win 82 games this season.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Jan 17, 2008 7:32 am

05worldserieschamps wrote:
It is completely useless. I didnt say OPS was useless, but CAREER Ops is. Why does it matter what Paul Konerko did 8 years ago? It doesnt. He could have hit 70 hr of 5 hr, the fact is, he was projected AROUND 35-42 hr, a .300+ avg and 100+rbi. He did not meet those numbers.

The only stats that matter are those that have been put up in the last 2-3 years, maybe 4.

Does anyone disagree with that statement? If they do they are completely wrong. Paul Konerko is a perfect example. Maybe he was close to his career OPS. So what? The years(last 2-3) when he was a premiere hitter are the only ones that matter.



Yes, I disagree with it. EVERY DATA POINT IS RELEVANT. The best projection systems use not only EVERY year of performance in the majors, but minor league performance as well, AND complete career performance of comparable players, as well as statistics like player height, weight, and so on.

The last 3 years are a good quick and dirty system. But, the PECOTA system substantially outperforms systems that only rely on that.


And, you misrepresent Konerko's experience. The last 2 years Konerko has had one year where he was very good and one year where he hit like a below average first baseman. In fact, that's most recent year is the MOST IMPORTANT YEAR for projecting future performance.

And, here's what those projections say about Konerko...

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... osition=1B

As I and others have said...a small rebound, but nowhere near what you are expecting.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Re: White Sox

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Jan 17, 2008 8:22 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And, here's what those projections say about Konerko...

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... osition=1B

As I and others have said...a small rebound, but nowhere near what you are expecting.

These guys clearly don't know what they are talking about... and who the heck is Bill James, anyway? Has he no idea of the awesomeness that is Paul Konerko? HE HIT 40 HR IN 2005 DAMMIT!!!! HE CAN DRIVE HIMSELF IN 100 TIMES!!!!!!!!
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24815
(Past Year: 361)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Re: White Sox

Postby AussieDodger » Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:51 am

bigh0rt wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And, here's what those projections say about Konerko...

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... osition=1B

As I and others have said...a small rebound, but nowhere near what you are expecting.

These guys clearly don't know what they are talking about... and who the heck is Bill James, anyway? Has he no idea of the awesomeness that is Paul Konerko? HE HIT 40 HR IN 2005 DAMMIT!!!! HE CAN DRIVE HIMSELF IN 100 TIMES!!!!!!!!


Look at the intangibles bigh0rt!
He's the captain , that's worth 20 RBIs itself.
And the most important of all, Golden Glove quality defense at 1B and DH!
Bill James should get out of his Moms basement and watch a game or two.
Image
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11357
(Past Year: 19)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Re: White Sox

Postby Ender » Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:21 am

bigh0rt wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And, here's what those projections say about Konerko...

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... osition=1B

As I and others have said...a small rebound, but nowhere near what you are expecting.

These guys clearly don't know what they are talking about... and who the heck is Bill James, anyway? Has he no idea of the awesomeness that is Paul Konerko? HE HIT 40 HR IN 2005 DAMMIT!!!! HE CAN DRIVE HIMSELF IN 100 TIMES!!!!!!!!


To be fair James is not one of the better guys at projections out there. He is great at many things but that is not one of his strengths.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: White Sox

Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:23 am

AussieDodger wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:And, here's what those projections say about Konerko...

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... osition=1B

As I and others have said...a small rebound, but nowhere near what you are expecting.

These guys clearly don't know what they are talking about... and who the heck is Bill James, anyway? Has he no idea of the awesomeness that is Paul Konerko? HE HIT 40 HR IN 2005 DAMMIT!!!! HE CAN DRIVE HIMSELF IN 100 TIMES!!!!!!!!


Look at the intangibles bigh0rt!
He's the captain , that's worth 20 RBIs itself.
And the most important of all, Golden Glove quality defense at 1B and DH!
Bill James should get out of his Moms basement and watch a game or two.


I don't have the numbers handy...what numbers would Konerko have put up in 2005 with Jeter's intangibles?
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7290
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:36 am

Ender wrote:
To be fair James is not one of the better guys at projections out there. He is great at many things but that is not one of his strengths.


Actually, I think he's done pretty good:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2007 ... ctions.php
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:02 am

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=18852&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab4pos2

This has nothing to do with the White Sox, but maybe will help you see there is more to a player than PECOTA and OPS. And not only is there more to him, but it actually matters as well.


And here is my Konerko argument. I have no problem with your projections, and in no way say "they should have been higher." I think projections should have a lot of personal opinion in them. Here was mine:

HR- He had hit 40, 41 and 35 HR the last 3 seasons. I had more hoped on HR than projected 35+. My bad.

RBI- After having the best offense in baseball in 2006, I would figure that we could(even with the regression) get some guys on base for him to drive in. Not the case.

AVG- He was trending up. .277 in '04, .283 in '05 and .313 in '06. I know he isnt a .313 hitter, but I still saw no reason to have him below .300.
Is pushing for President Obama to pass a law requiring all citizens to be Chicago White Sox fans and make October 1st "White Sox Day" where we all dress as our favorite player. It maybe socialist, but I don't care.
05worldserieschamps
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1059
Joined: 2 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Kentucky

PreviousNext

Return to Chicago White Sox

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Aug. 20
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Texas at Miami
(12:40 pm)
indoors
Seattle at Philadelphia
(1:05 pm)
Toronto at Milwaukee
(2:10 pm)
NY Mets at Oakland
(3:35 pm)
Houston at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
Arizona at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Detroit at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
LA Angels at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Cincinnati at St. Louis
(7:15 pm)
San Francisco at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
Baltimore at Chi White Sox
(8:10 pm)
Cleveland at Minnesota
(8:10 pm)
Kansas City at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
San Diego at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact