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Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Tue Jan 15, 2008 7:48 pm

I could honestly care less about your stat predictions. I recall in 2005 being picked to finish at least 3rd, probably fourth, and that was after we got Pods, Dye, etc. We won 99 games that year, not to mention a WS title.

[quote="GotowarMissAgnes]
I don't know about smarter. I've got a doctorate, does KW? I guarantee I'm smarter than KW about stats. I'm sure he's smarter than me about some things.

No, I absolutely do not admit that a lot of things went awfully wrong with the Sox last year. As I have said repeatedly, they finished almost exactly where a statistical analysis done in March predicted they would finish. They lost Crede, but Fields filled in very well. Almost everyone else performed close to what was expected. I do not expect ANY bounceback, except from Crede.



[/quote]

1. KW(along with about 29 other GMs) know more about baseball than you. That is my point. So he is smarter than you in regards to this topic.

2. Thats ignorant.

Scott Podsednik- Table setter for 2005 and 2006(99 and 90 wins respectively) was out with injury. He stole 12 bases(down from 59 and 40) and even in his short 214 AB season, hit the lowest average of his career.

Paul Konerko- Second lowest average of his 9 year career(.259) and his 3rd lowest is .277 and that was down from .313 in 2006. First time since 2003 that he had failed to hit 35 HR(hit 40 twice) and first time since '03 he had under 100 RBI.

Joe Crede- Of course. You say Fields replaced him nicely, but you again fail to remember Crede's Gold Glove caliber Defense, which has a bigger impact than you think. Also, his HR numbers had been trending up starting with 2002 (12, 19, 21, 22, 30) and you say his power numbers should have dropped?

Jose Contreras- Easily the worst season of his career. Though he has never been an extremely reliable pitcher, usually not that bad. (3.61 era in 05, 4.27 in 06)

Bullpen- Of course we know the ENTIRE bullpen fell apart in 2006. After having a 4.08 era in 2006, the 27 year old(best years, eh?) had a 6.40 era. Mike Macdougal also had the worst year of his entire career with a 6.80 era. That was down from a 1.55 era the year before and his highest ever for a full season was 4.08.

Tadhito Iguchi- Sure, we can count him. Only been here for 3 years, but you would think he would improve some. Put up career lows in about every offensive category.



So it looks to me like the only guys who put up what they were expected to was our DH and SS. (our SS is our worst player, btw) And you say nothing went wrong? Please.
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Re: White Sox

Postby Ender » Tue Jan 15, 2008 7:50 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:I could honestly care less about your stat predictions. I recall in 2005 being picked to finish at least 3rd, probably fourth, and that was after we got Pods, Dye, etc. We won 99 games that year, not to mention a WS title.



True, there is always a chance that most of the team has career years at the same time and the team way outperforms expectations. I just wouldn't base my projections on that happening.
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Re: White Sox

Postby whitesox04champs » Tue Jan 15, 2008 8:00 pm

The thing about the white sox is they need almost everything to right in order to have a succesful season...Although that sounds like a lot, it happened in '05 and we won it all
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Re: White Sox

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jan 15, 2008 8:38 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:a bunch of nonsense...

You continuously say things like, "you fail to realize..." when the very things you are claiming people are failing to realize are being quantified right in front of you, and presented in such a way that anybody who successfully completed high school mathematics can understand them. Whether or not you want to believe them is one thing, but please stop saying that people fail to realize things, when it couldn't be any further from the truth.

Questions, though...

Why do you presume that every GM in the league are more intelligent than GTWMA? I'll bet my life savings that I'm more intelligent in nearly every way than Steve Phillips, former New York Met GM. We've got some intelligent folks here at the Cafe, who, given the same resources, I think could do as good a job as some of these putzes who control some of the real teams...

In 2005 Scott Podsednik had a career high OBP, which has declined since then. His stolen bases are not nearly as influential on the success of the White Sox as you are presuming -- hell, even in 2005 he only stole at a 71% clip, which statistically suggests he shouldn't have been running nearly as often. As a 76% career base stealer, it suggests he shouldn't be running as much as he has for his entire career, in fact.

Konerko will be 32 on Opening Day and hasn't hit 40 HR since 2005. '04 - '06 he played well over what he had done for the rest of his career (OBP/SLG), and in fact, his 2007 was much closer to his career norms (.353 OBP, .495 SLG) than you seem to be giving credit. Unless the top of the White Sox order decides to actually get on base this year, don't expect 100 RBI regardless of how Konerko performs. He can only drive himself in so many times.

Crede's expected performance has been explained to you no less than twice. If you continue to insist he should hit 30 HR and drive in 90+ this year, there's no point in debating it further, but I will be sure to dig this thread up in the Fall. Probability suggests that my projections are far more likely than yours.

Again, Contreras didn't under-perform in 2007 as much as you are giving credit. He performer closer to his career norms, suggesting that the previous season and a half he was playing over his head, but I'll be hard pressed to convince you that he isn't a stud on the hill, so I'll just let that be. He was nearly an entire run over his career in 07, but nearly an entire run under in 05. If he keeps his ERA under 4.50, consider that a victory.

Nobody's saying that nothng went wrong last year -- it's just that people did, in fact, predict similar Win totals to what Chicago finished with. I know maybe you personally were expecting 90+, but you're also calling the Sox contenders this year too, so I take it with a grain of salt...
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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 15, 2008 10:27 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:I could honestly care less about your stat predictions. I recall in 2005 being picked to finish at least 3rd, probably fourth, and that was after we got Pods, Dye, etc. We won 99 games that year, not to mention a WS title.


It was third. All you have to do is look it up on the link I posted, but that's too much work for you.

No one is saying that stat predictions are perfect, but I hope you are not claiming perfection either. What I do know is that the DM predictions have been among the best pre-season predictions almost every year. In fact, the DM predictions and the Las Vegas odds have been the two best predictors of baseball's final results over the past 9 years. The Vegas odds have the Sox has 9th out of 14 teams to win the AL pennant, finishing 4th in their division.

So, ask yourself...are your smarter than those Vegas oddsmakers AND the stat guys??? What do you know that they do not??

05worldserieschamps wrote:1. KW(along with about 29 other GMs) know more about baseball than you. That is my point. So he is smarter than you in regards to this topic.



I think there are lots of guys who know more about baseball than quite a few GMs. It's pretty naive to think that just because those guys have that job, they are the 30 most knowledgeable baseball guys around. Hell, I bet 90% of the fantasy baseball players could do a better job than the Pirates GM.

05worldserieschamps wrote:2. Thats ignorant.

Scott Podsednik- Table setter for 2005 and 2006(99 and 90 wins respectively) was out with injury. He stole 12 bases(down from 59 and 40) and even in his short 214 AB season, hit the lowest average of his career.


BATTING AVERAGE DOES NOT MEASURE A PLAYER'S OFFENSIVE CONTRIBUTION VERY WELL.
SBs DO NOT MEASURE A PLAYER'S OFFENSIVE CONTRIBUTION VERY WELL.
I notice that you fail to note that losing Podsednik almost meant he only got CS 5 times, rather than 19 or 23 like he did in the prior years. Two consistent things in your review of the Sox...you never focus on the important measures, and you ONLY discuss the optimistic side of the equation, rather than taking a balanced view of a player's contributions.

Frankly, losing Podsednik was a positive for the Sox. As a baseball player, he's a great sprinter. As a hitter, he sucks. Losing him gave more playing time to Mackowiak and Fields, both of whom are better than Podsednik. If you want to win more games in 2008, pray for Podsednik to get hurt again.


05worldserieschamps wrote:Paul Konerko- Second lowest average of his 9 year career(.259) and his 3rd lowest is .277 and that was down from .313 in 2006. First time since 2003 that he had failed to hit 35 HR(hit 40 twice) and first time since '03 he had under 100 RBI.


BATTING AVERAGE DOES NOT MEASURE A PLAYER'S OFFENSIVE CONTRIBUTION VERY WELL.
Konerko OBP in 2007: .351
Konerko career OBP: .353
Konerko slugging percentage in 2007: .490
Konerko career slugging percentage: .495
Konerko OPS+ in 2007: 117
Konerko career OPS+: 116

Looks to me like Konerko was pretty damn close to his career averages.
HINT: Judging a 32 year old player on the basis of his performance during his peak age years is sure to mislead you.


05worldserieschamps wrote:Joe Crede- Of course. You say Fields replaced him nicely, but you again fail to remember Crede's Gold Glove caliber Defense, which has a bigger impact than you think. Also, his HR numbers had been trending up starting with 2002 (12, 19, 21, 22, 30) and you say his power numbers should have dropped?


It's not that I fail to remember it, it's that I think it is of minor importance. Together Crede and Fields combined for about 4 fielding runs above average last year. Crede's FRAA in the two prior seasons were 14 and 23. So, having Crede for a full season on defense might buy you another win or two...IF Crede makes it back healthy AND IF he starts at 3b over Fields. And, again, if that pushes Fields or Quentin to the bench, you lose a portion of their contributions, so the net effect could be less than 1-2 wins. And no, I said that Crede's numbers should be expected to plateau and then drop. He's at the age when that happens to players. I certainly think he could get back in the range of 25-30 HRs. But, I would not expect him to start to get towards 40 HRs, because it's not likely given his age.

Look at Konerko for example. At age 28 and 29 he hit 40 and 41. If you were looking at him in December 2005, you'd be telling me he'd be likely to climb to hit 50 HRs, probably. And I'd be telling you he'd probably level off or drop a little. Because as players get into their 30s, their reflexes start to slow, and their ability to recover from day to day starts to suffer, and they picking up a nagging hammy or a sore wrist, and those things sap their power, turn HRs into doubles or lazy fly balls.

Anything can happen, of course, but the LIKELY event is that Crede's power levels off or declines, not that it continues to increase.

05worldserieschamps wrote:Jose Contreras- Easily the worst season of his career. Though he has never been an extremely reliable pitcher, usually not that bad. (3.61 era in 05, 4.27 in 06)


5.50 ERA in 2004.
Hey, your guess is as good as mine what you will get from Jose. But, if you want to take the optimistic view on a rebound from a 36 year old pitcher, have fun with that. I'm happy to bet against that and think most savvy stat guys and oddsmakers would support me on that. See, the thing about old pitchers is that they generally tend to get worse.

05worldserieschamps wrote:Bullpen- Of course we know the ENTIRE bullpen fell apart in 2006. After having a 4.08 era in 2006, the 27 year old(best years, eh?) had a 6.40 era. Mike Macdougal also had the worst year of his entire career with a 6.80 era. That was down from a 1.55 era the year before and his highest ever for a full season was 4.08.


No one has disagreed with the poor performance of the bullpen. We've just disagreed that a simple rebound from one guy and bringing in Linebrink, who's on a 4 year downward spiral, are likely to result in a big rebound. The difference between a 7.00 ERA and a 4.00 ERA in the 60 or so IP you get from a reliever is a big 20 runs or so.
05worldserieschamps wrote:
Tadhito Iguchi- Sure, we can count him. Only been here for 3 years, but you would think he would improve some. Put up career lows in about every offensive category.

So it looks to me like the only guys who put up what they were expected to was our DH and SS. (our SS is our worst player, btw) And you say nothing went wrong? Please.


No, in fact, you are wrong. Only Crede was significantly below his career norms. Sure, Podsednik was hurt, but the players that replaced him were an improvement. The rest of the lineup had some guys a little up, some guys a little low, but nobody that had a major shortfall or big year. Your SP performed as good or better than their career averages, other than Contreras,and underperformance in older pitchers really should not be a huge surprise. In fact, Vazquez was significantly above his career norms. And your bullpen, other than MacD, performed pretty much as expected. The problem wasn't that they had bad years. It's that they are not very good pitchers (yet).

So, I'll go back to the top. The objective stat analysis and the Vegas odds agree with me. Now, if I'm on the other side of this argument, I start wondering why I am not seeing what they see. I start to question whether I'm really seeing the facts, or whether my view of things is colored by my biases.

But, that's me.
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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 15, 2008 10:45 pm

By the way, it appears that baseball genuis KW agrees with my assessment of how important getting Podsednik back as a table setter is for the Sox.

http://rotoworld.com/content/playerpage ... LB&id=3040

In fact, since no MLB team even made a trade offer, it looks like the other 29 genuises also agree with me.
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Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Wed Jan 16, 2008 12:04 am

Paul Konerko- Screw career OPS. Thats useless. You're going to tell me that you care what Paul Konerko's OPS was when he played for the Dodgers or his early White Sox days? You can go back 2-3, maybe 4 years to try and accuratly project what a player will do, but 5 or more is completely irrelavant.

Here, look at some stats that matter:

2004- .894 ops
2005- .909 ops
2006- .932 ops

By looking at those numbers, what moron would say that in 2005, his OPS would drop almost .100 points!? No one! His OPS is 2007 was .841. (he had higher ones even in his early white sox days!)

Paul Konerko UNDERPERFORMED.


Scott Podsednik- He was released in November. Thats old news. And of course he was released, where would he play? KW had this in mind a while ago. Besides, he was riddled with injury.

And Podsednik's decline aside, he was a more valuable player to us than Jerry Owens(his replacment).


Joe Crede- You used the argument about Konerko having good years at 28 and 29, then falling off. You again fail to realize that the "all important" OPS was at his highest in his career in 2006. Maybe his power numbers slightly declined, but his average sored, as maybe he wasnt as good of power hitter, but he was a better hitter.

And I never said nor expect Crede to trend up to 40 hr. He isnt that type of hitter. But I would expect him to stay around 30 hr and 90 rbi, and you telling me that paired with a gold glove type defense isnt a good player is just absurd. Losing Crede was a huge hit to our team.

Jose Contreras- Yes, he is very inconsistent. Ill agree. But I would still expect him to have a decent season. even 4.50-5.00 era would be great. Even COntreras' strikeouts were way down. He had a terrible year. SImple as that. And I expect SOME sort of rebound. Of course not back to his 2005 form but something.

Bullpen- You are forgetting we had one of the best closers in baseball and STILL had the worst bullpen in baseball. Im not saying that I or anyone else was expecting Mike Macdougal, David Aardsma, MIke Myers and Andy Sisco to have just fantastic years out of the pen, but 6.00 era and not being able to get anyone out is ridiculous. And noone expected that either.
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Re: White Sox

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Jan 16, 2008 12:24 am

05worldserieschamps wrote:Screw career OPS. Thats useless.


Wow 8-o 8-o 8-o
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Re: White Sox

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:07 am

AussieDodger wrote:
05worldserieschamps wrote:Screw career OPS. Thats useless.


Wow 8-o 8-o 8-o

Yeah, its pretty much at that point that I walk away from the conversation. Picking and choosing convenience to support argument can only go on for so long, especially when it's littered with gems like the quoted above. I can only be told that a guy is a better hitter because he has a higher average, or that OPS only matters during a player's peak years, or that I should expect Joe Crede to hit 30 HR and drive in 90 runs before I finally wave the white flag -- I can't repeat myself anymore... the information is there in black and white. Tossing the word 'Gold Glove caliber defense' into every post doesn't make Fields fill-in for Joe Crede any less ably, but whatever; unless new information is brought up here, my opinion has been stated fully, and as far as I'm concerned, supported. The White Sox will finish third in their own division, and as the season gets underway, I will definitely remember this thread and give it a bump so we can all have a good laugh sometine in June/July...
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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Jan 16, 2008 8:11 am

No data point is irrelevant. But, you are right that a reasonably accurate predictor of performance can be done just on a player's 3 most recent years. What does that say about Konerko? It predicts an OPS+ of about 121. A modest bounceback, but nothing near his peak. And that's the problem with your view. You expect guys to not only bounce back but to even match their best performance ever. You think Crede will not only bounce back by equal or exceed the best year he ever had. And you expect that for almost every player on the Sox roster.

That's not realistic.

Podsednik. So, he's injured AND no one thinks he's any good. Except you. And you don't start to question why everyone else disagrees with your assessment of his value.

That's not realistic.

Different players follow slightly different aging patterns. Different statistics also follow different aging patterns. Nothing is set in stone. But, in general, players numbers start to plateau and trend downward after age 27. Konerko's homers peaked at age 28. His OPS+ peaked at 29.

Crede's not 28. He''s not 29. He's 30. Sure, he could be a late peaker. But that would be unusual. Fewer than 1/4 of players have a peak at age 30 or later. But, you believe Crede, coming off an injury, will match his best performance ever.

Not realistic.

Yes, as with Konerko, I do expect a rebound from Contreras, back close to about league average ERA (4.75 or so). Again, that will be balanced, in all likelihood,but a regression in Vazquez performance and the loss of Garland. You need to look not just at individual moves, but all the moves together. That's what the stat guys and vegas crowd do. They don't see the rebound you do, because you ONLY look at the positive changes.

Not realistic.

Your bullpen was not the worst in baseball as many have pointed out. It was not even the worst in the AL. But, it was bad. The moves made will improve it probably, although bullpen performance is notoriously unpredictable. But, it's a minor part of the game, and the moves and changes are small enough that it does not lead to a big improvement in team performance. I'm not forgetting anything. How the Sox bullpen performed last year WAS predicted by the stat guys. Go ahead an look at their predictions for 2007. Sure, they missed on individual players, some above and some below. But, on average, they predicted the Sox bullpen was not very good. But, once again, you choose to assume that all the bad performers get better and none of the good performers get worse.

All together now....Not realistic.

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