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Re: White Sox

Postby 05worldserieschamps » Sun Jan 13, 2008 11:31 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:KW said he had a contending team last year. How'd that work out for him? Now that we've established that he's not infallible, maybe you can open your eyes to the possibility that others might know something. For example, the stat crowd predicted very well where the Sox would finish last year. The Chicago media even had big write-ups laughing about how those geeky stat guys knew nothing. Guess who was laughing in October?

Yes, the Angels PWND you bad in the Garland for Cabrera trade, so it is certainly possible, as some have pointed out, that KW could find an even dumber GM to get a good pitcher for Garland. But, seriously, nobody's going to give anything for Crede until he proves his healthy. At the very best, you might be able to trade him near the end of Spring training. But, even then, it's not just the injury. It's just that Crede is not that good.

No one KNOWS what will happen. That makes baseball so great a game. But,what is also great about it is that the stats allow you to make reasonable guesses about the most likely scenario. And, the most likely scenario for the Sox this year is still little better than last year.


1. Im not saying other dont know anything and KW is just a God, blah, blah, blah. Im saying he is much smarter than you, and he is.

Another thing: I think even you would admit a lot of things went awfully wrong for the Sox last year, which lead to an awful season. But, most will bounceback form that.

2. I dont think it was a terrible trade. I think it was a decent trade. How it will work out remains to be seen. Uribe had to be replaced. Thats just a fact. Also, the experts(espn, etc.) think it was a very even trade.

3. And I honestly can't respect your opinion any longer if you dont think Crede was any good. Thats just stunning. A guy who hits .283-30 hr-94 rbi and gives you a Gold Glove Caliber defense isnt a good player, thats a great player. And even if Crede doesnt hit .280(which he probably wont) his career numbers point to his power numbers increasing every year. So you could still expect around 30 hr and 90+ rbi, and extremely valuable player. And any team looking to contend without a solid 3B would love to have Crede.


3. I also think its foolish to think the Sox wont greatly improve. Take the huge upgrades out-- even if those guys who had terrible years would bounce back, which is likely, that would be good for 80 wins.
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Re: White Sox

Postby Old_Style » Sun Jan 13, 2008 11:36 pm

Why don't you two Chatty Cathy's settle this with a Cafe bet or two.
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Re: White Sox

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Jan 13, 2008 11:47 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:3. And I honestly can't respect your opinion any longer if you dont think Crede was any good. Thats just stunning. A guy who hits .283-30 hr-94 rbi and gives you a Gold Glove Caliber defense isnt a good player, thats a great player. And even if Crede doesnt hit .280(which he probably wont) his career numbers point to his power numbers increasing every year. So you could still expect around 30 hr and 90+ rbi, and extremely valuable player. And any team looking to contend without a solid 3B would love to have Crede.

The presumtion that Crede's 2006 season was in all likelihood about as good as he can be, and should not be expected to repeat has already been presented to you. Why you're still expecting a 30/90+ season from him is beyond me. If the Mets didn't have David Wright, I would still want no part of Joe Crede, because quite frankly, he's average at best with the bat, for a corner infielder, is coming off an injury, and is on the wrong side of 30. But hey, KW is a much smarter guy than I am, so I'm sure he knows what's good.

For the record, .283-30-94 does not make a great plyer... not even close, really. It makes a very good season, which is all Crede has to hang his hat on. The downside far outweighs the up, as far as I'm concerned.
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Re: White Sox

Postby AussieDodger » Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:13 am

05worldserieschamps wrote:
3. And I honestly can't respect your opinion any longer if you dont think Crede was any good. Thats just stunning. A guy who hits .283-30 hr-94 rbi and gives you a Gold Glove Caliber defense isnt a good player, thats a great player. And even if Crede doesnt hit .280(which he probably wont) his career numbers point to his power numbers increasing every year. So you could still expect around 30 hr and 90+ rbi, and extremely valuable player. And any team looking to contend without a solid 3B would love to have Crede.


Sorry champ but

1. RBIs have very very little to do with how good you are as a player. The FOX commentators were talking about Mike Lowells 120 RBI last year like he was Babe Ruth returned from the dead - it wouldn't have anything to do with the OBPs of Pedroia/Youkilis/Papi/Manny by any chance?

2.Crede is a career .259 hitter not .280. He has a full season of .280+ once , but he also has a full season of .239 once. Of course what I really care about is his OBP - here are his OBP since 2003...
.308 , .299 , .303 , .323 , .258.
I think league average is .330ish , so you'll agree with me in saying that most of the time Crede is really awful , and not a great player.

3. If you can find me a system that measures "intangibles" I will discuss them with you.

4. Gold glove - I'm sorry but winning a popularity contest does not make you a good player. Otherwise Sean Casey would be getting ready for the hall of fame. http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/05/17/everyone-likes-sean-casey/
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Re: White Sox

Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Jan 14, 2008 10:44 am

Just wanted to chime in about the bullpens. Baseball Prospectus ran the numbers a few years back to find what things had the strongest correlation to playoff success but weren't necessarily as important during the regular season.

As Dayn Perry and I found in Baseball Between the Numbers, regular season success is no guarantee of playoff performance. Rather, there are three particular characteristics of teams that win more than their share of post-season games. These characteristics are as follows:

* A power pitching staff, as measured by normalized strikeout rate.
* A good closer, as measured by WXRL.
* A good defense, as measured by FRAA.


So that might be your disconnect between bullpens and success in the playoffs. It's not the entire bullpen that matters in the playoffs - it's just the closer. Now that's not to say the rest of the bullpen doesn't matter. It just matters about the same as it mattered during the season. It's just that a power pitching staff, a good closer, and a good defense matter more in a short series than over the grind of a 162 game season.
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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:34 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:

1. Im not saying other dont know anything and KW is just a God, blah, blah, blah. Im saying he is much smarter than you, and he is.

Another thing: I think even you would admit a lot of things went awfully wrong for the Sox last year, which lead to an awful season. But, most will bounceback form that.



I don't know about smarter. I've got a doctorate, does KW? I guarantee I'm smarter than KW about stats. I'm sure he's smarter than me about some things.

No, I absolutely do not admit that a lot of things went awfully wrong with the Sox last year. As I have said repeatedly, they finished almost exactly where a statistical analysis done in March predicted they would finish. They lost Crede, but Fields filled in very well. Almost everyone else performed close to what was expected. I do not expect ANY bounceback, except from Crede.

05worldserieschamps wrote:3. And I honestly can't respect your opinion any longer if you dont think Crede was any good. Thats just stunning. A guy who hits .283-30 hr-94 rbi and gives you a Gold Glove Caliber defense isnt a good player, thats a great player. And even if Crede doesnt hit .280(which he probably wont) his career numbers point to his power numbers increasing every year. So you could still expect around 30 hr and 90+ rbi, and extremely valuable player. And any team looking to contend without a solid 3B would love to have Crede.



Others have pointed out, and I have said over and over again that Crede's low OBP offsets his power. as a result, in most seasons he has been below average for a 3B. Furthermore, he's past the typical peak age for players of 27. Thus, I would not expect his HRs or other offensive numbers to increase. Instead I expect them to plateau and then begin to decline.

05worldserieschamps wrote:3. I also think its foolish to think the Sox wont greatly improve. Take the huge upgrades out-- even if those guys who had terrible years would bounce back, which is likely, that would be good for 80 wins.


Other than Crede,there was NO big shortfall. So, expect no big bounceback.
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Re: White Sox

Postby Yoda » Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:40 pm

OMG stop it already.
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Re: White Sox

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jan 14, 2008 1:35 pm

Yoda wrote:OMG stop it already.

Why?

I can't remember the last time a thread went this long in this forum without the primary topic being the Yankees, Red Sox, Bonds, or steroids... it's like a breath of fresh air, as dead as the horse has been beaten. Plus, we're getting sprinklings of info nuggets like in TLL's post about post-season vs regular season performance importance rates and factors.
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Re: White Sox

Postby Ender » Mon Jan 14, 2008 2:30 pm

PECOTA projected 72 wins for the White Sox last year. I had them down for 74 wins in my predictatron picks on baseballprospectus. They did not underperform my expectations last season. (I took 7th place and got a free subscription!)
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Re: White Sox

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Jan 14, 2008 7:30 pm

And the first projection I've seen on the Sox 2008 is up. This is before Swisher, but after Cabrera and Linebrink.

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.p ... amond_mind

OUCH!

Well, I guess after getting Swisher the Sox may have saved themselves from challenging my O's and the Pirates and Marlins for the "worst team in baseball" title. Man, how many will the O's win if they do succeed in trading Bedard and Roberts for prospects?? 50??

For those who are tired of this thread, there's a really simple solution. If you don't take it, blame yourself. I'll be happy to offer a Cafe Bet, but I would like to what other moves occur this off-season. If genius KW somehow turns Crede into Johan, that would certainly change the projections.
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