White Sox

[Ender]

No I don't like what they are doing but as a large market team you can get away with trades like this since you can buy FA's to fill the holes you create later. That pretty much sums up why large market teams pay more per win than small market teams.

[sublime8414]

It's realistic, although perhaps not likely to see dye, konerko, thome, and swisher each hit 35 Home runs. I'm not sure any other team boast 4 guys with that kind of power. It certainly makes the AL slight more interesting. And it makes me think that minnesota should trade nathan and johan this off-season with chi-sox, indians, red sox, yanks, and tigers competing for 3 playoff spots.

[05worldserieschamps]

I think its very possible for the Sox to make the playoffs. They arguably have the best offense, probably more of a three way tie between the Indians, them and the Tigers. Their SP is solid with Buehrle and Vazquez, if they can get help from guys like Danks and Broadway it could even be good. And their Bullpen will be much improved after adding Linebrink. I think its very possible for them to win now. I think 2007 was just a freak year for them.

[Yoda]

They are not as bad as people think they are. They do need some pitching depth and it looks like KW is trying hard to pull off a trade involving a bat for an arm. Provided they are healthier, I expect them to finish 2nd behind Detroit with a chance to catch them.

[DetroitTigers]

Detroit still is a team where most of their lineup could be out for the season by mid April.

I don't know where you get that idea. The only guys in their lineup who may have a DL stint because of past injuries are Sheffield and Guillen. I agree with those who are saying that the White Sox will not be able to contend because of Detroit's moves, Cleveland's strong team, and the fact that the White Sox' pitching rotation is very questionable beyond Buerhle and Vazquez. If Detroit doesn't make it to the World Series, I will personally be very disappointed

[GotowarMissAgnes]

I think its very possible for the Sox to make the playoffs. They arguably have the best offense, probably more of a three way tie between the Indians, them and the Tigers. Their SP is solid with Buehrle and Vazquez, if they can get help from guys like Danks and Broadway it could even be good. And their Bullpen will be much improved after adding Linebrink. I think its very possible for them to win now. I think 2007 was just a freak year for them.

The White Sox finished dead last in the AL in offense last year, more than 100 runs behind the Indians, and almost 200 runs behind the Tigers. In 2006 their offensive strength was driven by Konerko (career OPS+ of 117, 2006 OPS+ of 134, 2007 OPS+ of 116) and Dye (career OPS+ of 110, 2006 OPS+ of 151, 2007 OPS+ of 105). I'll grant you that in 2007 they had modest declines in production at 2B and C which can be expected to rebound in 2008, but can you explain where you expect the Sox to gain 100-200 runs? It was 2006 that was the freak year for Konerko and Dye, not 2007.

[05worldserieschamps]

I think its very possible for the Sox to make the playoffs. They arguably have the best offense, probably more of a three way tie between the Indians, them and the Tigers. Their SP is solid with Buehrle and Vazquez, if they can get help from guys like Danks and Broadway it could even be good. And their Bullpen will be much improved after adding Linebrink. I think its very possible for them to win now. I think 2007 was just a freak year for them.

The White Sox finished dead last in the AL in offense last year, more than 100 runs behind the Indians, and almost 200 runs behind the Tigers. In 2006 their offensive strength was driven by Konerko (career OPS+ of 117, 2006 OPS+ of 134, 2007 OPS+ of 116) and Dye (career OPS+ of 110, 2006 OPS+ of 151, 2007 OPS+ of 105). I'll grant you that in 2007 they had modest declines in production at 2B and C which can be expected to rebound in 2008, but can you explain where you expect the Sox to gain 100-200 runs? It was 2006 that was the freak year for Konerko and Dye, not 2007.

Ridiculous post. Im still trying to figure out how 2006 was a "freak year" for Konerko when he didnt meet his career high in anything but average? HR, R, RBI, BB, IBB, 2B, 3B, 1B, whatever. He has had higher categories. In 2004 and 2005 he hit 41 and 40 HR, respectivley. 117 and 100 RBI as well. So, in fact, you could say his 2006 of 35 HR, 113 RBI was somewhat of a down year for him. Sure, his average was boosted up to .313, so he just essentially sacraficed a little power for some Average. Its insane to say he didnt have a freak year when he hits .259(second worst in his career) in the middle of his prime! He is most certainly going to bounce back from a terrible year.

Dye, on the other hand, did hit a little out of his shoes in 2006. Probably his career years. However, he is not a bad hitter. Yes, 2006 was a freak year, but so was 2007. At opposite ends of the spectrum. His average last year of .254 was also his second lowest of his career.(full seasons/at least 300 AB) He hits .275 for his career, so he dropped way off of that. I'd say at this stage in his career, he should be good for at least a .275 average. And he didnt get near that in 2007. He will, however, in 2008.

So I think its very concieveable for the White Sox to gain 100-200 runs. Swisher makes them instantly better, he could easily go for 35 HR in a hitters ballpark. Keith Law from ESPN says it makes the Sox instantly 4-5 wins better. Carlos Quinetin should be a great addition, as he was out of most of 2007 with Injury, but a great young player. I think he could easily be around .270-20-75. Also, the biggest difference is Joe Crede. He, IMO, was slated for a .280-30-100 type season. His numbers were trending up until the injury. In all, I'd say this could easily be one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. There is so much power here. Orlando Cabrera adds that speed component. I could see easily 230 HR for the sox, in all. Thats average seasons for these guys.

[Another Blown Save]

FWIW, Konerko has a career OPS of 848 and he had an OPS of 841 last year.
Dye has a career OPS of 823 and he had an OPS of 803 last year.

I'd say that last year's numbers are fairly close to their career average and considering that both of them are in their 30s now, I wouldn't expect any increase in their production from here on out.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

FWIW, Konerko has a career OPS of 848 and he had an OPS of 841 last year.
Dye has a career OPS of 823 and he had an OPS of 803 last year.

I'd say that last year's numbers are fairly close to their career average and considering that both of them are in their 30s now, I wouldn't expect any increase in their production from here on out.

Exactly. Both had low BAs, but BA is not a decent measure of offense. Konerko's OPS+ in 2007 was basically identical to his career OPS+. He's not ancient, so an OPS between 2006 and 2007 levels would be a decent bet.

Dye won't get anywhere close to his 2006.

Yes, Swisher is a big 50 run improvement, if he can handle CF.

The problem with your assessment is that you look only on the positive side. Position by position between 2007 and 2008, you have:
C: modest decline to modest rebound
1B: no change to modest rebound
2B: modest decline
ss: modest improvement
3B: no change to modest decline (Fields did very well filling in for Crede, and you overweight Crede's value because you ignore his lousy OBP).
LF: Good improvement
CF: Significant improvement
RF; Modest decline to modest rebound
DH: Modest decline

Overall, a team likely to improve by 50-75 runs, I'd say. They won't be as bad as 2007, but they won't catch the Tigers in offense--who have more than matched the Swisher move with Cabrera--and I seriously doubt they'll catch the Indians. The Sox problem is not homers. They were second in the league in HRs last year. It's that nasty .318 OBP. In addition, their three best hitters are all over 32 and the bench stinks. An injury to any one of Thome, Konerko or Dye (or Swisher or Quentin), and the Sox are once again putting offensive black holes out there and finishing in the bottom third in runs scored.

You have to look at the likely events, not the best of all possible worlds.

[BritSox]

And they're still going to be managed by Ozzie Guillen, who will continue to give away outs as if they were promotional bobbleheads.