The Outrageously Early New Year's Day Mock - Part I

[WebHamster]

This thread contains comments on the Cafe's "The Outrageously Early New Year's Day Mock - Part I", which was posted in the Cafe's Player Rankings section by Erik Blomain on January 3, 2008. The full article can be read here.

[chris8]

Interesting article, and it will be good to see how things work out, but can you give us a bit of background to the draft? For example, were 10 different managers involved in it, or is it a draft based on your initial rankings (ie: a Funston-style one-man draft)?

I think it's an important point to be clarified, because, as everyone knows, a draft with 10 managers will mean 10 different lists of players that they are targetting & avoiding, whilst one that is based off your rankings will have fewer quirks in it (such as the Tigers fan who will take Ordonez in Round 1 based on his performance last year).

It will also be easier to comment on particular picks as well. For example, I would never take Josh Beckett that early (#22 overall), especially when the team in question needed a big slugger at that stage, but if the draft is based on your rankings, it makes a little more sense if Beckett is your 3rd-ranked pitcher!

Anyway, looking forward to the next stage

[cyberer]

Hey man, the draft is based on my own rankings only. As a result I tried to keep the quirk picks to a minimum. That being said I know that dumba$$es exist in drafts so in my notes I mentioned potential crappy picks that people will make (the catcher thing in round 4, the SP thing in earlier rounds). However I figured that rather than include those quirky picks into my rankings I tried to make an "ideal draft" where everyone makes what is in my mind the right pick for them. Beckett is the 3rd SP on my board right now, more b/c ADPs and other experts put him there than my own inclinations, I still don't believe in Beckett.

[PDRAstrosFan]

Just wondering, but how does Beltran fall so far down the list? He has 30-30 potential and in a an era of baseball filled with power 1b men, I would think the steal home run combo would come in handy. Espically in the Met's line up.

[Madison]

Just wondering, but how does Beltran fall so far down the list? He has 30-30 potential and in a an era of baseball filled with power 1b men, I would think the steal home run combo would come in handy. Espically in the Met's line up.

21st overall isn't that low. It's only a 10 team mock, so you're actually looking at a late second round pick in most leagues instead of a third round pick like in this one.

[ensanimal]

Good read. Can't wait to see the rest of it.

I do find it funny though that you liked team 2 and 9 best.

Team 2 has no real power threat yet, and team 9 has 3 1B.

[PDRAstrosFan]

I understand. I still couldn't see picking Vlad or Ichiro over Beltran though. Yes, Beltran will not steal as many bases as Ichiro or hit as many home runs as Vlad. But in hitting between Reyes and Wright he is bound to get plenty of RBI's and score a ton of runs, on top of the mentioned, and what i feel to be a more than likely 30-30 season.

[The Artful Dodger]

Interesting read. I was thinking of writing a self mock draft actually.

I think you're putting a little too much weight on power/speed hitters. (I'm even surprised you think Jose Reyes is a 30-30 threat and yet Phillips drops down to the 3rd. ) I don't believe Team 2 is anywhere near being the best as it doesn't have an established 30+ HR threat yet. I tend to think your best sources of power come from the first 5 rounds when they're likely to contribute power with little or no downside on pulling down your other stats.

As Chris said, I can't imagine a good number of folks taking Beckett #22 overall. I think Santana and Peavy merit being taken within the top 20 because of their track record of producing a laser-thin ERA/WHIP with a hefty total of K's, but Beckett slides down a bit because as you said, pitching is rather deep and because you can probably find ace pitching a couple of rounds down. Again, I think the concentration should be on hitting, especially on power hitters.

Can't wait to see the rest. As most 10-team drafts, I think half of the teams in the draft at least are built with a good nucleus.

[Madison]

I understand. I still couldn't see picking Vlad or Ichiro over Beltran though. Yes, Beltran will not steal as many bases as Ichiro or hit as many home runs as Vlad. But in hitting between Reyes and Wright he is bound to get plenty of RBI's and score a ton of runs, on top of the mentioned, and what i feel to be a more than likely 30-30 season.

Oh I agree a 30-30 would be valuable in addition to his runs and average. However he also hasn't hit over .278 in 4 years. That's a negative in the average category. Your team will hit higher than that (if it doesn't, you're probably in trouble). For example, using the two guys you named, Ichiro is a career .333 and Vlad is a career .325. Beltran's career is .280, so take Vlad's career (smaller than Ichiro's) and subtract Beltran's, and you get .45 That translates to a .05 difference in your team batting average if you've got 9 hitters. In a roto league, that's quite large, it's the difference in your team hitting .285 or hitting .290 for example. That's why Adam Dunn falls each year in drafts even though he's a 40+ home run power threat. Average is a killer. And he's just an extreme example, Beltran's not nearly that risky, just showing how it can make a difference and in roto leagues, even .01 or .02 in batting average can be worth solid points in the standings. So when I see him at 21st overall, I don't blink at it.

[PDRAstrosFan]

Oh I agree a 30-30 would be valuable in addition to his runs and average. However he also hasn't hit over .278 in 4 years. That's a negative in the average category. Your team will hit higher than that (if it doesn't, you're probably in trouble). For example, using the two guys you named, Ichiro is a career .333 and Vlad is a career .325. Beltran's career is .280, so take Vlad's career (smaller than Ichiro's) and subtract Beltran's, and you get .45 That translates to a .05 difference in your team batting average if you've got 9 hitters. In a roto league, that's quite large, it's the difference in your team hitting .285 or hitting .290 for example. That's why Adam Dunn falls each year in drafts even though he's a 40+ home run power threat. Average is a killer. And he's just an extreme example, Beltran's not nearly that risky, just showing how it can make a difference and in roto leagues, even .01 or .02 in batting average can be worth solid points in the standings. So when I see him at 21st overall, I don't blink at it. [/quote]

Alright cool, I very much appreciate the explination. I still personally feel that it is easier to make up for a weak AVG. than it would be to make up for weak SB totall. Again, thanks for the explination though.