Hi all, I've been playing fantasy baseball since 2003. It seems to me that 2008's draft will be the most interesting since I've been playing. Here's why I think this is so. I'll try and place players into certain categories. Please add players as you see fit. The declining aging players. Can some of these guys muster up another good year ? Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Jeff Kent, Miguel Tejada, Johnny Damon, Garret Anderson, Jim Edmonds, Bobby Abreau . Then there's all kind's of players coming off surgeries, or just battled nagging injuries all year. Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, Troy Glaus, Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock, Joe Crede, Rafael Furcal, Jason Bay, Vernon Wells, Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, Francisco Liriano, Chris Carpenter, Randy Wolf, are some examples. There's many highly touted young players. Can they step it up ? Guys like Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, Cameron Maybin, Ian Kinsler. There's also those who aren't yet old and had bad years. Players like Bonderman, Andruw Jones, Travis Hafner , etc:: Add to this the many good young pitchers such as McGowen, Gallardo, Jiminez, Garza, Hughes, Chamberlain, Snell, Billingsley, Shields, and Francis. I guess what I'm trying to get at is there's so many different reasons for not knowing when to draft a large number of players that this will lead to some great value picks later in the draft. Also , the first round is in a state of change. There's also in my opinion a lot less real good outfielders. This especially matters in leagues that play LF, CF, RF as seperate outfield positions. When looking at ADP's in mock drafts, I see many changes in when players are drafted. When preparing my draft lists, I've never had such a hard time in ranking some players. I'm wondering if others are having some of the same problems in ranking. I know some of the older guys , and those coming off injuries are risks. But if they fall far enough in the draft , it could be worth a shot. I'm guessing the projections for many of the before mentioned players will vary greatly. And to get some of the real good young and upcomers, you may have to reach a little. All in all it will be an interesting draft with many different options . I for one will be taking some chances on a few players. Looking forward to other's thoughts on the 2008 draft. Dan the Bluesman
I agree. I was just telling a leaguemate I thought last year's draft kind of stank, mainly because after the 7th round there wasn't much out there for some reason, but this year's draft is going to get REAL GOOD after the 7th round. I am anxious for the late rounds. Lots of rookies and lots of guys flying under the radar...
Yeah I agree here. I think whats going to be most important is peoples preparation heading into the draft. Of course that aspect is always important, I feel as though this year, more than ever, those who prepare the most while truely shine through...
Hey Dan, I totally agree with you!! This years draft is going to be different, in fact a friend of mine said this years draft was "going to be a sort of changing of the guard if you will" as guys that have been first rounders for years may slip a few rounds. It is not like it used to be, the young guys that have real major league talent are not being kept "on the farm" for long. They are being put on the fast track for big leagues! Great post!! I look forward to reading more of your posts! You seem to really know your stuff.
This will be a great year to draft, because of the economics of the game. Never have we seen soooo many teams (even the better organizations) soooo willing to give a kid a shot to play. I think this is becauce the rookies are affordable.
The Dodgers could have traded Kemp, Loney, Ethier, whoever... but part of their value is affordability. For every overpaid player a team has on the field, they have to be offset with a young player somewhere else. Example: Andruw Jones gets to be a Dodger because the team is paying Martin, Loney, Kemp, and Billingsley peanuts.
This works for all teams, even the Red Sox. The Yankees may be out of this to some extent, but their kids are coming up not because of the salary of their stars, but because those stars are getting old (Giambi, Mussina, Posada, Damon).
So we have a tremendous amount of opportunity out there for some kid to play enough games to do us some good in fantasy land. Keeper league owners must be out of their minds this offseason.
I also noticed the down season list, and the injury front. You just never know about those types... (I worry about Furcal).
The guys who are losing some value are the ones who are getting up there in age. I no longer have to reach for Jeff Kent. If I miss him, I'll take someone else. I won't risk a high draft pick, and this flood of rookies on the wire will reduce the risk I take with a replacement who I know cannot hit as well as a healthy Jeff Kent.
The players who are now more valuable than ever are starting pitchers in their prime. Someone make a list of starting pitchers who are between the ages of 28-32, have thrown more than one thousand innings, and have won more than seventy games. I don't think anyone here would keep guys like that on the draft board for very long.