Havok's Top 25 1B for 2008

[Havok1517]

Havok's Top 25 1st Basemen for 2008

01. A. Pujols (Stl) - Even though the supporting cast is down, he will not be
02. R. Howard (Phi) - Had 2 bad months and was still great down the stretch
03. P. Fielder (Mil) - Legit MVP candidate in '07, look for more of the same
04. D. Ortiz (Bos) - 7 GMS started, great lineup and park, power slightly down in '07
05. T. Hafner (Cle) - Down season, look for Pronk to rebound
06. M. Teixeria (Atl) - Move to Atlanta seems to have rejuvenated his bat
07. L. Berkman (Hou) - Predicting a bounce back, Tejada should help some
08. J. Morneau (Min) - 2nd half saw a power collapse but still very good
09. D. Lee (ChC) - Wrist injury usually takes 1 year to heal, getty up
10. V. Martinez (Cle) - Value is at C, but 1B helps
11. A. Gonzalez - Even though Petco saps power, he will produce
12. P. Konerko (ChW) - Regressing but he should have 1 more big season
13. G. Atkins (Col) - 10 games played, '07 made him legit
14. C. Pena (TB) - Lets see it again before we get too excited
15. C. Guillen (Det) - I actually think he will move to 3B with MCab going to 1B
16. N. Swisher (Oak) - Power was down but Avg up, EDIT: Moves to AL's #1 HR field
17. T. Helton (Col) - Not close to his previous seasons but doubles machine still
18. J. Loney (LAD) - Adrian Gonzalez-lite right now, but should have 1B job at start
19. K. Youkilis (Bos) - the UC star continues to produce in that lineup
20. A. Gordon (KC) - 32 games played, too talented not to produce
21. R. Garko (Cle) - Hafner & Martinez steal time but continuing to improve
22. B. Butler (KC) Played enough games to qualify, a great but young bat, DHing will help
23. R. Sexson (Sea) - Just a horrible '07 season but has crazy power still
24. Ad. LaRoche (Pit) - Similar to Sexson but came around near the end
25. C. Delgado (NYM) - He's about done, age and injuries regressing him very quickly

Just Misses: C. Jackson (Ari) - Will the predicted power ever come? Hope so, A. Huff (Bal) - Could be traded, but had a down year last year, D. Barton (Oak) - Impressive debut, will fight with Johnson & Swisher for time, J. Giambi (NYY) - Not sure if he can hold up, C. Kotchman (LAA) - Needs to show a lot more, J. Saltalamacchia (Tex) - 1B too deep to make the cut, Di. Young (Was) - Skeptical, N. Johnson (Was) - Always injured & trade candidate, J. Votto (Cin) - Prospect will split time with Hatteberg, L. Overbay (Tor) - Injured for a lot of '07, M. Jacobs (Fla) - MCab leaving hurts offense

Prospects: C. Davis (Tex) - Could see time at DH or 1B in '08. Could very well see Salty at 1B, Teagarden at C, and Davis at DH in the near future.

Notes: M. Cabrera could see time at 1B in '08 for Det. Seattle will be pressed to find J. Clement ABs with Johjima at C and Clement could see time at 1B especially if Sexson is traded

In a Perfect World, where tools & potential are maxed and injuries are non-existent...

01. A. Pujols (Stl)
02. P. Fielder (Mil)
03. D. Ortiz (Bos)
04. T. Hafner (Cle)
05. R. Howard (Phi)
06. M. Teixeria (Atl)
07. D. Lee (ChC)
08. L. Berkman (Hou)
09. J. Morneau (Min)
10. A. Gordon (KC)

[The Artful Dodger]

I think I'd give the edge to Fielder over Howard and I'd put Berkman #5 and drop Hafner to 7th. Atkins should go up to 9th.

[mariners47]

Does anyone have a good argument (not just a gut feeling), for why Hafner will rebound? I haven't done much research into it yet but I'm wondering about his BABIP and splits last year. Are there any positive indicators going forward?

[CadensDad]

Does anyone have a good argument (not just a gut feeling), for why Hafner will rebound? I haven't done much research into it yet but I'm wondering about his BABIP and splits last year. Are there any positive indicators going forward?

Good question, I expect him to rebound as well as 90% of the cafe members do but I don't know why,

[Scooter1027]

Does anyone have a good argument (not just a gut feeling), for why Hafner will rebound? I haven't done much research into it yet but I'm wondering about his BABIP and splits last year. Are there any positive indicators going forward?

Good question, I expect him to rebound as well as 90% of the cafe members do but I don't know why,

I think it is mostly gut feel, but there are some statistics that suggest a bounceback. His BB rate was above his career average and his K rate dropped, suggesting that there wasn't a plate discipline issue. He had a career low .298 BABIP (career BABIP .327). Part of this is likely explained by his career low line drive % (17.5% in 2007, versus 21.2% in 2006 and 19.6% for his career). This also translated into a big loss in isolated power (ISO of .185 in 2007 versus .350 in 2006, big difference). He just hit a lot of ground balls in 2007 which cost him his average and HR numbers. The question is whether you believe that's the real Travis Hafner from here on in (he is on the wrong side of 30), or if it was just an aberration of a season. I think he'll rebound closer to his career norms, although I don't think we'll see another year like 2006.

[IllinoisBandit]

Pretty solid.

[J35J]

Does anyone have a good argument (not just a gut feeling), for why Hafner will rebound? I haven't done much research into it yet but I'm wondering about his BABIP and splits last year. Are there any positive indicators going forward?

3 consecutive years of improvement and then last year hit.....no real reason why we should just dismiss those 3 years and the trend upward in #s just because of a bad year last year. He's still plenty young enough to have another peak season and we all know, just by knowing the game and the players, that Hafner is a force offensively.....why would he all of a sudden be a .265 25 100 now? ....unless he's got something wrong with him physically.

[FearTheRoyals]

I think my draft strategy this year will be to sit back and wait as long as I can to draft a 1B and then draft either Hafner or DLee.

[osu99]

Pronk also struggled with injuries throughout the season last year and never seemed to get in the hot streak that he has had in previous years. I guess it's a gut feeling but he will be back in form next year.

[chipper]

Good list, but Votto has to be higher. He will face most righties and that park is great. He also has explosive players around him for protection and to drive in.
I would rank him somewhere in your Swisher/Gordon area.