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Valuation -- Ratio Categories

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Valuation -- Ratio Categories

Postby sublime8414 » Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:12 pm

Does anyone have a good article, or a good idea of how to do a valuation of ratio categories? AVG, OBP, ERA, WHIP.

I have a basic idea, but in order to be more scientific in how i look at things, i was wondering if someone had a good way to look at how you evaluate these categories. It's very easy to see a players contribution in counting stats, but i've never had a full grasp of grasping the contribution in ratios. For example i never end up drafting ichiro.

Anyways, any help would be greatly appreciated.
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Re: Valuation -- Ratio Categories

Postby Tavish » Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:30 pm

The quickest and easiest way to do it is to use a replacement value. Quick example:

If the average player in your league had 550 ABs and hit .275 and you had 10 hitters per team your average team would have

5500 ABs
1513 Hits
.275 BA

Ichiro had 678 ABs and 238 Hits in 2007. So replace an average player on your team with Ichiro and you will see his effect on the team.

5500 - 550 + 678 = 5628 ABs
1513 - 151 + 238 = 1600 Hits
.284 BA or +.009

Pat Burrel had 472 ABs and 121 Hits in 2007.

5500 -550 + 472 = 5422 ABs
1513 - 151 + 121 = 1483 Hits
.273 BA or -.002

Now how you decide to handle the average production is up to you. Some do a league average, some do a positional average, some use last year's category totals (ie what the BA was for the 3rd place team), and so on. After you decide what the average should be, it is fairly easy to run a complete list to show the players affect the ratio categories.
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Re: Valuation -- Ratio Categories

Postby RugbyD » Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:39 pm

The contribution is determined by weighting. AB for AVG, PA for OBP, and IP for ERA and WHIP.

For example Ichiro's .350 with 680 ABs is worth a lot more than a .350 from Bonds with 400 ABs. If a team averages 550 ABs and a .290 AVG for the remaining 8 players in a lineup, here's how it breaks down:

With Ichiro:
550*8+680 = 5080
680/5080 = 13.386%
.290*(1-.13386) + .350*.13386 = .298032 team AVG

With Bonds:
550*8+400 = 4800
400/4800 = 8.333%
.290*(1-.08333) + .350*.08333 = .294998 team avg

Under these scenarios, Ichiro's AVG is worth approx 3 points more than Bonds', even though their AVG is the same.


EDIT: apparently I type numbers a bit slower than some :-b
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Re: Valuation -- Ratio Categories

Postby Tavish » Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:54 pm

RugbyD wrote:EDIT: apparently I type numbers a bit slower than some :-b

MUWHAHAHAHA!!!

To be fair I just used +-=. You had all sorts of other fun operators in there so you win on style points. :-D
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Re: Valuation -- Ratio Categories

Postby sublime8414 » Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:14 pm

Maybe i'm being a little slow, but is there a way to break down there valuation like this:

you're shooting for an avg. of .280. Ichiro will contribute +40% or something to the effect.

Or maybe this is a better way to explain it.

I'm shooting for 210 home runs. between 10 players. That means i need 21 HR per player. If I am projecting someone to hit 28 home runs. I'm plus 33% 28/21. Something to that affect.

I'm not sure i'm explaining this properly.
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Re: Valuation -- Ratio Categories

Postby Tavish » Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:26 pm

sublime8414 wrote:Maybe i'm being a little slow, but is there a way to break down there valuation like this:

you're shooting for an avg. of .280. Ichiro will contribute +40% or something to the effect.

Or maybe this is a better way to explain it.

I'm shooting for 210 home runs. between 10 players. That means i need 21 HR per player. If I am projecting someone to hit 28 home runs. I'm plus 33% 28/21. Something to that affect.

I'm not sure i'm explaining this properly.


I think that if you follow either of the above formula's then you will get exactly what you are looking for. Using my example, if you are shooting for a .275 BA (besides being an underachiever) then taking Ichiro will put you .009 ahead of the curve. If you take Burrell you have fallen off .002 from your goal. In effect you should be able to do a rate of New BA / Goal BA to get you a percentage increase.
Team BA with Ichiro / Team BA with Average player
.284/.275 = 1.033 or +33%

The biggest problem is that the value will change somewhat depending on how accurate you make that baseline player. If your baseline is 550 ABs but you draft all leadoff hitters who get 650 ABs each then the value of Ichiro will be diminished.
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