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1st & 4th overall pick

Postby CETracy » Wed Dec 26, 2007 1:12 pm

This is how it shapes up...Some prospects arent avail as other teams got to keep 5 from there rosters...here is a list of guy...Who should i take #1 overall and #4 overall:

Maybin
Rasmus
Buchholz
Joba
Kennedy
McCutchen
Porcello
Wieters
Fukadome
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Re: 1st & 4th overall pick

Postby San D » Wed Dec 26, 2007 1:40 pm

CETracy wrote:This is how it shapes up...Some prospects arent avail as other teams got to keep 5 from there rosters...here is a list of guy...Who should i take #1 overall and #4 overall:

Maybin
Rasmus
Buchholz
Joba
Kennedy
McCutchen
Porcello
Wieters
Fukadome


My order: Rasmus, Buchholz, Joba, Maybin, Wieters, Fukudome, Kennedy, McCutchen, Porcello (huge upside but far away)
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Re: 1st & 4th overall pick

Postby Savoy Special » Wed Dec 26, 2007 2:50 pm

My top 4 would be:
1) Buchholz
2) Rasmus
3) Maybin
4) Joba

**You could make 3 exceptions at #4 based on your own ideas:
1--If you want to take a high end catcher at a position that doesn't have many top players available, then Wieters would be a great pick
2--If you want to get a very good OF that will provide immediate help all across the board, then Fukudome would be a good pick.
3--If you want a great SP that is a long ways away, Porcello could be your guy. Kershaw may have been protected, but he is another very high ceiling SP that could be looked at.
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Re: 1st & 4th overall pick

Postby thedude » Wed Dec 26, 2007 6:56 pm

Maybin
Buchholz
Rasmus
Wieters
Joba


I usually profess to taking the hitter over the pitcher in the minors, so i would take Wieters over Joba (besides it is hard to find good catchers)
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Re: 1st & 4th overall pick

Postby BigLeagueFutures » Wed Dec 26, 2007 7:58 pm

I'd rank'em:

Maybin
Buchholz
Joba
Rasmus
McCutchen
Wieters
Porcello
Kennedy
Fukadome
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Re: 1st & 4th overall pick

Postby cardinal1975 » Wed Dec 26, 2007 9:28 pm

1. Maybin
2. Rasmus
3. Buchholz
4. Joba
5. Wieters
6. Porcello
7. McCutchen
8. Fukudome
9. Kennedy

Good luck!
:-)
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Re: 1st & 4th overall pick

Postby Koby Schellenger » Thu Dec 27, 2007 1:05 am

I'd rank the top four as:
Rasmus
Buchholz
Chamberlain
Maybin
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Re: 1st & 4th overall pick

Postby Seattle Squirrels » Thu Dec 27, 2007 4:03 am

I would say Rasmus must be your 1st selection.

For the fourth I would take in this order:
Joba
Wieters
Buchholz
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Re: 1st & 4th overall pick

Postby bloodface » Thu Dec 27, 2007 4:58 am

I'm going to assume this is a long term keeper league, and absent you telling any of us any information on how your league works, I'm guessing you get to keep these guys indefinitely. Second, I'm an owner of Maybin, Buchholz and Porcello, so I'm not favoring one or the other because of personal attachment. I'm also guessing that David Price is not available for whatever reason that doesn't make much sense if Weiters is.

There are a couple of reasons why Maybin should not be #1 on this list. First off, he's most likely getting a starting job this year, 2 years too soon. He'll likely slump (he strikes out, A LOT), like Homer Bailey did last year, and his cost will plummet. You will be able to trade for him for much cheaper of a relative value than picking him overall first in this draft. Why will he slump? He was below par in the AFL, and his bat was exposed during his call-up with the Tigers this year.

As a 20 year-old, he started the year in High-A Lakeland, and displayed everything but good plate presence in terms of pitch recognition and long swing. He was striking out 23.8% of the time versus walking 12.3%. Now, those were small improvements based upon his first year in A-Ball, however, he was still striking out nearly double the amount of times he was walking. Considering he was 20, that's not bad, but it's also not great, especially if you are going to rush him. That presence gets exposed against older pitchers who have the ability to throw pitches that he cannot hit or hold off of more successfully.

His promotion to Double-A Erie lasted a whopping 26 Plate appearances before his promotion to the big club, which is rather unheard of. Players do get promoted from AA all the time, but not after only their first few games there. His sample size is so small that we cannot discern much from it, other than he made much better contact, was much more patient, but hit without any real power (only 1XBH).

It goes without saying that his shoulder injury had a large impact on his showing in Detroit and the AFL, but it should not blind one to the fact that his bat simply was not ready. He likely needs a full season in AA before he gets a call, but unfortunately in Florida, they need a CF. Whether or not this sets Cameron back remains to be seen, but stinking it up royally tends to have a negative impact on the progression of prospects, and one fears this outcome for Maybin coming off two bad previous showings. The conservative estimate says that Maybin is due for a promotion to full time mid 2009. And this is why he should not be #1 on this list.

Who should be? Clay Buchholz. Say what you want about the shoulder issue at the end of last year, but that was a product of him being at his protected inning limit rather than any structural issue - Buchholz has one of the best repeatable and smooth deliveries in the Minors, and worrying about any health issues when there really have been none is foolhardy. Conversely, I also think that you should not put a ton of stock into the no-hitter. We all remember Jered Weaver and Zack Duke's entry into the Majors, and this was likely partly a product of the other team having little information on Clay. But it would also be foolhardy to assume the same outcome as Weaver or Duke. Buchholz is SPECIAL. He has THREE (one fastball, 2 offspeed) plus pitches as well as PLUS command. That just doesn't really happen. The make-up is there to be a TRUE ACE. His Dominance rates were in the TWELVES in the Minors, and he hovered around nine in the Majors. And when you consider he'll pitch at the back-end of the rotation for the World Series champs, his ability to get you a lot of wins and a lot of strikeouts with great percentages, THIS YEAR makes him the unequivocal first overall pick. His relative value after the draft is only going to go up. And his long term potential matches that of Maybin.

The list would be as follows, with an * denoting players who will have a positive impact this season:

Buchholz*
Fukudome* (his long term is not as bright as the rest of these players, however, he'll have impact immediately)
Price* (sure he's not available?)
Maybin
Joba* (injury history puts him below Maybin)
Rasmus
McCutchen

The rest are FAR AWAY from making the bigs.
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Re: 1st & 4th overall pick

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:26 am

I got them:

Buchholz
Rasmus
Maybin
Joba

Those four are basically interchangable, but that's how I see them.

The rest I have as:

McCutchen
Porcello
Kennedy
Wieters

Fukudome
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