All I'll comment on is your early picks but I'd rather have Fielder for the next 3 or 4 years than Howard. I think Fielder has more AVG upside as he has legit .300 AVG year to year potential and he might throw in 4 or 5 SB a year too. Fielder is a better hitter in my opinion but Howard has the better park behind him so it evens out some.
Just a question... why is Adrian Gonzalez ranked about Carlos Pena just about everywhere? Just the age difference(25 vs 29)? Pena had the same BA, a better OBP (which might indicate a better eye) and hit 153% of the HRs in 76% of the at bats.
Both were top 1B prospects (with the Rangers ) and both had break out years in 2007. If anything I think it's more likely that A-Gon does not ever get 646 at bats in a season again, causing his overall numbers to remain about the same even if he improves.
Not criticizing, but I've noticed that AGon is ranked higher (sometimes much higher) in every ranking I've seen when their values seem to be very close in my mind.
hot4tx wrote:Just a question... why is Adrian Gonzalez ranked about Carlos Pena just about everywhere? Just the age difference(25 vs 29)? Pena had the same BA, a better OBP (which might indicate a better eye) and hit 153% of the HRs in 76% of the at bats.
Both were top 1B prospects (with the Rangers ) and both had break out years in 2007. If anything I think it's more likely that A-Gon does not ever get 646 at bats in a season again, causing his overall numbers to remain about the same even if he improves.
Not criticizing, but I've noticed that AGon is ranked higher (sometimes much higher) in every ranking I've seen when their values seem to be very close in my mind.
I am a huge huge Pena fan trust me. I think he can reproduce close to the stats he did last year, but until I see it, I am not willing to bet my money on it. I think the inconsistency with Pena is why he is ranked lower by most people.
hot4tx wrote:Just a question... why is Adrian Gonzalez ranked about Carlos Pena just about everywhere? Just the age difference(25 vs 29)? Pena had the same BA, a better OBP (which might indicate a better eye) and hit 153% of the HRs in 76% of the at bats.
Both were top 1B prospects (with the Rangers ) and both had break out years in 2007. If anything I think it's more likely that A-Gon does not ever get 646 at bats in a season again, causing his overall numbers to remain about the same even if he improves.
Not criticizing, but I've noticed that AGon is ranked higher (sometimes much higher) in every ranking I've seen when their values seem to be very close in my mind.
I'd much rather have AGon than Pena. I get to watch AGon quite a bit but he is getting better. He had a long slump in 07 but the power is legit and he is still very young. Pena had a breakout year but he is at a point in his career where he can go either up or down. AGon is steadily getting better and I'd choose him over Pena in a heartbeat.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
So it seems to be more of a risk thing - ie AGon seems more likely to repeat or improve his stats than Pena does.
What are some projections people have for these two guys? Maybe high/low ranges? Sorry if I'm whipping a dead horse, just interested in other's thoughts here.
You guys think Pena could regress to the .250- hitter he's been for much of his career in the MLs? Or do you think he's actually improved and last year playing full time again he got a chance to show it? Anyone think he's likely to regress back below .260 and hit less than 30 HRs?
Hey deeray...here is the top 20 1B list I'd been working on: feel free as always to agree or disagree as you like.
1. Pujols, Albert - STL 2. Fielder, Prince - MIL 3. Teixeira, Mark - ATL 4. Howard, Ryan - PHI 5. Hafner, Travis - CLE 6. Ortiz, David - BOS 7. Lee, Derrek - CHC 8. Berkman, Lance - HOU 9. Gonzalez, Adrian - SD 10. Pena, Carlos - TB 11. Morneau, Justin - MIN 12. Helton, Todd - COL 13. Delgado, Carlos - NYM 14. Konerko, Paul - CHW 15. Votto, Joey - CIN 16. Loney, James - LAD 17. Giambi, Jason - NYY 18. Saltalamacchia, Jarrod - TEX 19. Barton, Daric - OAK 20. Butler, Billy - KC
I really wanted to put Victor Martinez on this list, but a.) couldn't figure someone to leave off...Salty might work, but he's in a more hitter-friendly ballpark, and b.) no one without Martinez and Russ Martin on their team is going to be playing Martinez at 1B anyways.
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by deerayfan072 » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:35 pm 
) and both had break out years in 2007. If anything I think it's more likely that A-Gon does not ever get 646 at bats in a season again, causing his overall numbers to remain about the same even if he improves.
