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Early Keeper Top 20 1B

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Early Keeper Top 20 1B

Postby deerayfan072 » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:35 pm

Yahoo elig. Top 20 in keeper.

Very early in my rankings -- where am I overthinking?

Pujols
Fielder
Howard
Tex
Ortiz
Hafner
Berkman
Lee
A. Gonzalez
Morneau
Konerko
Pena
Giambi
Votto
Delgado
Barton
B. Butler
Laroche
Jackson
Loney
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Re: Early Keeper Top 20 1B

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Dec 22, 2007 12:20 am

pujols
howard
fielder
ortiz
tex
berkman
hafner
morneau
lee
gonzalez

is my top 10

also you have helton missing?
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Re: Early Keeper Top 20 1B

Postby Ender » Sat Dec 22, 2007 2:10 am

All I'll comment on is your early picks but I'd rather have Fielder for the next 3 or 4 years than Howard. I think Fielder has more AVG upside as he has legit .300 AVG year to year potential and he might throw in 4 or 5 SB a year too. Fielder is a better hitter in my opinion but Howard has the better park behind him so it evens out some.
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Re: Early Keeper Top 20 1B

Postby hot4tx » Sat Dec 22, 2007 11:30 am

Just a question... why is Adrian Gonzalez ranked about Carlos Pena just about everywhere? Just the age difference(25 vs 29)? Pena had the same BA, a better OBP (which might indicate a better eye) and hit 153% of the HRs in 76% of the at bats.

Both were top 1B prospects (with the Rangers :,-( ) and both had break out years in 2007. If anything I think it's more likely that A-Gon does not ever get 646 at bats in a season again, causing his overall numbers to remain about the same even if he improves.

Not criticizing, but I've noticed that AGon is ranked higher (sometimes much higher) in every ranking I've seen when their values seem to be very close in my mind.
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Re: Early Keeper Top 20 1B

Postby deerayfan072 » Sat Dec 22, 2007 11:49 am

hot4tx wrote:Just a question... why is Adrian Gonzalez ranked about Carlos Pena just about everywhere? Just the age difference(25 vs 29)? Pena had the same BA, a better OBP (which might indicate a better eye) and hit 153% of the HRs in 76% of the at bats.

Both were top 1B prospects (with the Rangers :,-( ) and both had break out years in 2007. If anything I think it's more likely that A-Gon does not ever get 646 at bats in a season again, causing his overall numbers to remain about the same even if he improves.

Not criticizing, but I've noticed that AGon is ranked higher (sometimes much higher) in every ranking I've seen when their values seem to be very close in my mind.


I am a huge huge Pena fan trust me. I think he can reproduce close to the stats he did last year, but until I see it, I am not willing to bet my money on it. I think the inconsistency with Pena is why he is ranked lower by most people.
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Re: Early Keeper Top 20 1B

Postby Yoda » Sat Dec 22, 2007 12:11 pm

hot4tx wrote:Just a question... why is Adrian Gonzalez ranked about Carlos Pena just about everywhere? Just the age difference(25 vs 29)? Pena had the same BA, a better OBP (which might indicate a better eye) and hit 153% of the HRs in 76% of the at bats.

Both were top 1B prospects (with the Rangers :,-( ) and both had break out years in 2007. If anything I think it's more likely that A-Gon does not ever get 646 at bats in a season again, causing his overall numbers to remain about the same even if he improves.

Not criticizing, but I've noticed that AGon is ranked higher (sometimes much higher) in every ranking I've seen when their values seem to be very close in my mind.


I'd much rather have AGon than Pena. I get to watch AGon quite a bit but he is getting better. He had a long slump in 07 but the power is legit and he is still very young. Pena had a breakout year but he is at a point in his career where he can go either up or down. AGon is steadily getting better and I'd choose him over Pena in a heartbeat.
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Re: Early Keeper Top 20 1B

Postby hot4tx » Sat Dec 22, 2007 12:54 pm

So it seems to be more of a risk thing - ie AGon seems more likely to repeat or improve his stats than Pena does.

What are some projections people have for these two guys? Maybe high/low ranges? Sorry if I'm whipping a dead horse, just interested in other's thoughts here.

You guys think Pena could regress to the .250- hitter he's been for much of his career in the MLs? Or do you think he's actually improved and last year playing full time again he got a chance to show it?
Anyone think he's likely to regress back below .260 and hit less than 30 HRs?
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Re: Early Keeper Top 20 1B

Postby Legia13 » Sat Dec 22, 2007 1:19 pm

deerayfan072 wrote:Yahoo elig. Top 20 in keeper.

Very early in my rankings -- where am I overthinking?

Pujols
Fielder
Howard
Tex
Ortiz
Hafner
Berkman
Lee
A. Gonzalez
Morneau
Konerko
Pena
Giambi
Votto
Delgado
Barton
B. Butler
Laroche
Jackson
Loney


I would much rather take Votto over Giambi in a keeper 10 times out of 10.
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Re: Early Keeper Top 20 1B

Postby joecahill » Sat Dec 22, 2007 10:30 pm

Hey deeray...here is the top 20 1B list I'd been working on: feel free as always to agree or disagree as you like. ;-D

1. Pujols, Albert - STL
2. Fielder, Prince - MIL
3. Teixeira, Mark - ATL
4. Howard, Ryan - PHI
5. Hafner, Travis - CLE
6. Ortiz, David - BOS
7. Lee, Derrek - CHC
8. Berkman, Lance - HOU
9. Gonzalez, Adrian - SD
10. Pena, Carlos - TB
11. Morneau, Justin - MIN
12. Helton, Todd - COL
13. Delgado, Carlos - NYM
14. Konerko, Paul - CHW
15. Votto, Joey - CIN
16. Loney, James - LAD
17. Giambi, Jason - NYY
18. Saltalamacchia, Jarrod - TEX
19. Barton, Daric - OAK
20. Butler, Billy - KC

I really wanted to put Victor Martinez on this list, but a.) couldn't figure someone to leave off...Salty might work, but he's in a more hitter-friendly ballpark, and b.) no one without Martinez and Russ Martin on their team is going to be playing Martinez at 1B anyways.
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