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RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Yoda » Sun Dec 23, 2007 2:54 am

stumpak wrote: What do you want to see as proof, someone combing through every rookie ever to see how well he did the next year?


Pretty much. Sophomore jinx is a myth. Plenty of rookies improved in their second season.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Ender » Sun Dec 23, 2007 10:46 am

Teahen regressed to his expected stats and Hall played injured most of the year so those aren't the best examples.

Players do generally have a small adjustment period when switching positions, I agree with you. But it isn't something where their value plummets or anything.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby kab21 » Sun Dec 23, 2007 12:55 pm

Ender wrote:Teahen regressed to his expected stats and Hall played injured most of the year so those aren't the best examples.

Players do generally have a small adjustment period when switching positions, I agree with you. But it isn't something where their value plummets or anything.


In addition to this there are times that a player breaks out because of a less demanding position. Michael Cuddyer struggled defensively (and ultimately got hurt) at 3B in 2005. He moved to RF in 2006 and broke out.

But in the end Braun should never be compared to players like Teahan, Hall and Cuddyer. Braun is uber talented and will be find wherever he plays.

I think the only way someone will be disappointed in Braun is if they project his '07 stats over a full season. Braun is still going to have a great season and in some ways I think people are concerned about overrating him that they actually underrate him.

Overall I wouldn't be surprised if Braun had a better season than teammate Prince Fielder (typically going in the 11-15 range). I don't think there is any reason to let him slip past 18 in the draft.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby cards05 » Sun Dec 23, 2007 6:28 pm

kab21 wrote:
Ender wrote:Teahen regressed to his expected stats and Hall played injured most of the year so those aren't the best examples.

Players do generally have a small adjustment period when switching positions, I agree with you. But it isn't something where their value plummets or anything.


In addition to this there are times that a player breaks out because of a less demanding position. Michael Cuddyer struggled defensively (and ultimately got hurt) at 3B in 2005. He moved to RF in 2006 and broke out.

But in the end Braun should never be compared to players like Teahan, Hall and Cuddyer. Braun is uber talented and will be find wherever he plays.

I think the only way someone will be disappointed in Braun is if they project his '07 stats over a full season. Braun is still going to have a great season and in some ways I think people are concerned about overrating him that they actually underrate him.

Overall I wouldn't be surprised if Braun had a better season than teammate Prince Fielder (typically going in the 11-15 range). I don't think there is any reason to let him slip past 18 in the draft.


I completely agree. Braun may be overrated in public leagues and such. But on this board, I think he may actually be underrated. Of course he isn't going to project those '07 stats over a full season and with his inflated BABIP, the batting average is certain to come down a little. But as Yoda said, his power is for real and he's going to steal some bases at the 3rd base position. I think he's got a great career ahead of him.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Broncmet724 » Mon Dec 24, 2007 8:21 am

I think top end for Braun will be something like .300 30 100 100 15 (hitting third won't lend to many SBs) If he's third and Prince is fourth I know I won't want him stealing very often to take the chance of the CS when Prince can hit one out every time he's up.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Philliebuster » Mon Dec 24, 2007 10:09 am

I'm not sure Braun can actually be considered overrated. IMO he earned a legit high ranking for 08 based on 07. Who wouldn't want a young stud who may put up these type of numbers for many years to come. That being said, he probably won't wind up on any of my teams, because others will most likely take him earlier than I would. No real risk though, but I can see some people taking him round 2 or 3.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Scooter1027 » Mon Dec 24, 2007 1:37 pm

Broncmet724 wrote:I think top end for Braun will be something like .300 30 100 100 15 (hitting third won't lend to many SBs) If he's third and Prince is fourth I know I won't want him stealing very often to take the chance of the CS when Prince can hit one out every time he's up.


I think your top end is low. He hit 34 HR and 97 RBI in three-fourths a rookie season last year, but the best he can do in a full season is 30 and 100? I think he could hit 45-50 and 125. Not that I necessarily think he will, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see more like 30-35 and 100. I myself am forecasting about 35 and 105. But I think his "top end" is more in the 45-50ish ballpark (like Bill James' projections).

As far as the SB, he hit 3rd all last year too and stole 15 bases in 451 ABs. Extrapolate that out to ~600 and you have 20 SB. I think that's where he can sit, ~20, something like 18-22 on the season. Basically, SB aren't the reason you draft Braun, but it is the thing that differentiates him from guys like ARam and Atkins.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Broncmet724 » Tue Dec 25, 2007 10:17 am

I think the league will adjust. But He could go higher but I think something like Bill James projection is very,very optimistic
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Scooter1027 » Wed Dec 26, 2007 1:00 am

Broncmet724 wrote:I think the league will adjust. But He could go higher but I think something like Bill James projection is very,very optimistic


Has the league "adjusted" to Albert Pujols, or Alex Rodriguez, or really any of the league's great hitters? Some guys are just great, great hitters. Heck, if anything, Braun has room to grow as his big-league plate discipline improves. I agree with you in that I don't think he'll hit 45+ HR. But if we're talking about his "top end" as you said, I think it's definitely right there. He has the potential to hit that many bombs this year, which is my interpretation of "top end".
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Broncmet724 » Wed Dec 26, 2007 8:10 am

Very true, but how many of those guys are there? 2 every 10-15 years, if that? I'll go with the "low end" if you want to call it that, which is still really good for a second year guy. And if he does .300 30 100 100 15, that leaves a bit of room to improve,you know?

Braun seems like a great talent, I honestly kept waiting for him to come back to earth, and to an extent he didn't. I thought Butler from KC was the best hitting talent coming out of the minors, or so I had thought I read.

If he goes .320 45 120 110 20 great, but until he does it the first time I won't be the guy buying him in the first round. I won't see him on any of my teams because I won't take him in the first 3 or 4 rounds. He'll probably end up being worth it, but before I'd spend a high pick on him he has to do it again <shrug> I'd rather go with someone who I know what I'll get (good numbers proven over a few years) than the possiblity of great numbers. There's a chance he'll fall flat on his face, which I doubt. I'll take Pujols, Manny, Wright, Utley, or someone who's proven what they are capable of. Just my philosophy.
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