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RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby talk show host » Fri Dec 21, 2007 1:49 pm

#1 I may be misunderstood Iam only referring to the risk that Bruan could be devalued based on these 2 aspect I am saying in my opinion he will take "a step back" but still be a good player. just may not live to hype .
Every respected Baseball publication has referred to the Sophmore jinx as has MLB i can get more studies when i have the time..Also it is NOT etched in stone that evry player is touched by it Teahen is a good an athlete as Braun as evidenced by his ability to play CF as well as RF Hall as a ss has all the skills as Braun as he has played 2 skill positions ss & Of each has said they were distraced offensively by the position change Only suggesting it could happen to Braun ..I think it will Thanks for reply Lenny ;-7

Sometimes learning a new position can be a distraction to other parts of a player's game, like hitting. Teahen doesn't think that will be the case in his situation.

"I've had plenty of time to go through the mental aspects of switching positions. I'm fine with it now; [it] really shouldn't affect any part of my game," he said. LENNY: It did :-)
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Yoda » Fri Dec 21, 2007 2:05 pm

talk show host wrote:#1 I may be misunderstood Iam only referring to the risk that Bruan could be devalued based on these 2 aspect I am saying in my opinion he will take "a step back" but still be a good player. just may not live to hype .
Every respected Baseball publication has referred to the Sophmore jinx as has MLB i can get more studies when i have the time..Also it is NOT etched in stone that evry player is touched by it Teahen is a good an athlete as Braun as evidenced by his ability to play CF as well as RF Hall as a ss has all the skills as Braun as he has played 2 skill positions ss & Of each has said they were distraced offensively by the position change Only suggesting it could happen to Braun ..I think it will Thanks for reply Lenny ;-7


I am also saying that Braun is a risk early in the draft. However, I still believe that the chances of him repeating or improving are greater than not.

Just using 2007 as an example, did any of these players suffer from the sophomore jinx last year?
Hamels
Cain
Verlander
Papelbon
Fielder
Kinsler
Markakis
Johjima
Willinghelm

Position change could have a negative effect on players I agree. However, Braun has already made a position change successfully. If his production goes down, then it will be due to him K'ing too much and the ridiculously high BABIP catching up with his AVG. His power is real and his speed is real. He hits in a favorable park with more than adequate protection around him. AVG is the only category I can see coming down as a result.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Scooter1027 » Fri Dec 21, 2007 2:14 pm

I haven't seen any good evidence regarding the sophomore slump concept. I agree with Yoda there. It's near worthless to look at past ROY winners, as some of them weren't really good in the first place, they just caught a little lightning in a bottle for a season (e.g. Pat Listach).

As far as the defensive switch, I agree with you -- to a point. Billy Hall struggled because he made the very difficult transition to CF, and he was a more than adequete SS to begin with. The change, mentally anyway, was not necessary for him. He would have been just fine staying at SS, in fact, he has more value there. He was being a team player because we had JJ Hardy. Braun is a butcher at 3B -- if anything, that has to be affecting the mental part of the game. Moving to the easiest position on the diamond (LF) should ease the stress his defense brings him.

Now, I think Braun could regress a little too. His BABIP is basically unsustainable, as is the .450/.516/.964 (1.480) line he posted against LHP. Just think about that -- he got on base over half the time against lefties. I agree with StlSluggers in that I think Braun will be one of those guys who always carries an above average BABIP because he stings the ball so hard, but .361 is probably too much. I disagree that Braun would be in danger of being benched, this team stuck through the early struggles of Rickie Weeks defensively too.

Overall, I have him ranked 4th amongst 3B. At the very least I think you're looking at .285, 25-30 HR, 95-100 RBI, 15-20 SB. The upside of course is much greater (insanely greater if you look at some of the projections out there, like Bill James). I think he'll land somewhere between the following two projections:

CHONE -- .293 AVG, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 87 R, 18 SB
James -- .326 AVG, 46 HR, 121 RBI, 121 R, 20 SB

Obviously if Braun posts the James line, he can consider himself a very legit MVP candidate in 2008. I think he'll post a slightly better CHONE line, with more RBI and more R, something like .295/35 HR/105 RBI/95 R/18 SB. That would still be a regression from last year, but still be a player I would want ahead of Garrett Atkins/Aramis Ramirez types.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby talk show host » Fri Dec 21, 2007 2:19 pm

Great stuff here ..Interesting points and good discussion I have a feeling we will revisit this as we get evidence as to what realy happens Thanks Lenny :-o
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Guaranteed Loser » Fri Dec 21, 2007 2:34 pm

He also has Ned Yost coaching him.

Who knows what that guy is gonna do.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Ender » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:24 pm

I think his numbers will regress but the extra month of playtime will hide it. Bill James projection seems high, under my scoring system he is worth more than ARod with those numbers. Late 2nd round, early 3rd round is probably where he goes, the fact he has 20 SB speed helps offset some of the risk from falling numbers elsewhere.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Scooter1027 » Sat Dec 22, 2007 12:29 am

Ender wrote:I think his numbers will regress but the extra month of playtime will hide it. Bill James projection seems high, under my scoring system he is worth more than ARod with those numbers. Late 2nd round, early 3rd round is probably where he goes, the fact he has 20 SB speed helps offset some of the risk from falling numbers elsewhere.


I agree. At the very least, he'll hit home runs, steal bases, and drive a bunch in hitting in the 3 spot of a good lineup. The only number really that could regress significantly I think is batting average.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby -Slap- » Sat Dec 22, 2007 10:28 am

I could justify ranking him as high as 13th overall this year. I really can't see dropping him much lower than 17th. If I happen to see him available any lower than that, I'll feel like I'm giving away value by passing on him.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Dec 22, 2007 12:37 pm

Braun probably will take a step back. Guys with big numbers in 400 abs, usually don't keep it up over 600 abs.

The sophmore jinx is a media myth. James did a study of every player. What he found was this

35 % increased year 2
35 % decreased year 2
30% stayed the same year 2

So basically, 35 out of 100 rookies will decrease.

As far as BP ROY study, it only has 114 players. Very small sample size. Also, ROY, usually have the best numbers for rookies, so their decrease rate is higher then the average 35%.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby stumpak » Sat Dec 22, 2007 8:55 pm

Yoda wrote:
talk show host wrote:Hear is a list Of the 116 total winners, 87 were hitters and 29 were pitchers. By those numbers, pitchers seem under-represented, receiving just 25% of the awards. In recent years, however, pitchers have won slightly more often. Since 1995, six pitchers have won the award, compared to 14 hitters. The average Rookie of the Year season has been worth 19 Win Shares, so last year's winners were both below average in that respect; Bay had 18 Win Shares, while Crosby had 13.

So, now that we know a little bit about the 116 Rookie of the Year winners, let's take a look at how they performed in their sophomore seasons. Since Bay and Crosby are just starting their second seasons, they are excluded from this little study. That leaves 114 players left to look at (using Win Shares). Of those 114 Rookie of the Year winners ...

- 73 declined in their second year (64.0%)
- 37 improved in their second year (32.5%)
- 4 stayed the same in their second year (3.5%)
a study published In hard Ball Timeshttp://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ ... ore-slump/
As for changin positions?? Ask Billy Hall and Mark Teahen and many more that we all have seen I appreciate your commnts as I hope ypu undersyand Im not saying braun is a flop but these factors May be a cause for a setback :-)


The study doesn't mean anything to me since it only accounts for ROY winners. Not all ROY winners are the same and the quality of the rookie pool varies greatly from year to year.



If one is seeking to identify the second year performance of successful rookies, the ROY is probably the best easy sample one can use. What do you want to see as proof, someone combing through every rookie ever to see how well he did the next year? I don't think this is the best metric to apply to Braun since he has exceptional hitting skills (vice Todd Hollandsworth, Walt Weiss, Alredo Garcia and some others guys that will show up) but you made the point that there is no sophomore slump among successful rookies in general and if someone has empircal data showing that ROYs suffer a regression that is a pretty good proxy for refuting your arguement.
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