talk show host wrote:I truely believe Braun may be overvalued this year
I agree. There are the usual slump risk flags here on Braun: Low BB rate, high K rate, extraordinarily high BABIP. However, I think he's too good of a hitter to just fall on his face. I think his BABIP is one of true outliers that is where it's supposed to be. Sort of like Albert, ARod, and Pronk, he's just one of those guys who hits balls so hard that they end up as hits more often than normal.
The risk with Braun is, imo, based on this perfect storm of events. First, he's getting ridiculous hype from Bill James: .326/.383/.660. That's first-round production right there. That's going to keep his ADP very high this coming spring; way too high.
Second, he has an unusual risk factor associated with him: terrible fielding. He's such a terrible fielder, there is the risk - albeit small - that if he does falter badly, he will get benched. We've seen a guy have a great streak, stumble, get benched, and then disappear for an extended time. We're not talking about Scott Rolen here. If he slips to .250, he becomes an offensive and
defensive liability. He'll be riding the pine.
I'm going to stick to my usual assertion that a first-round pick should be first and foremost reliable. Braun will almost certainly go in the first round in a majority of drafts. With all the variability out there, I would rather take a player with a proven offensive and health record than a rookie flash who carries a ton of risk factors in his skill set - even if his ceiling is through the roof.
Now give me Braun in a contract/keeper league or in the 3rd round, and I'm singing a different tune. I'm just saying I wouldn't touch him in the first round of a redraft.
Last edited by StlSluggers on Fri Dec 21, 2007 12:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.