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RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

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RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby talk show host » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:03 am

I truely believe Braun may be overvalued this year

1.Sophmore Jinx is real...We have already seen Braun take a step back,,BA 350 1st 40 AB .... 309 BA next 73
Successful rookies generally spend the offseaon with confidence in what they have done they rarely spend the winter tinkering with making changes
Pitchers and pitching coaches generally examine the rookies that did well against them ,and chamge the way they pitch to the sucessful rookie...
Most 2nd year players fail to adjust causing the Sophmore slump. they may adjust as the season progresses but a bad start means declining confidence as well as numbers

2 Ask Mark Teahen and Billy Hall about changing positions..this is not a secret..there is a potential to suffer decline in Batting when players change positions

The combo of Sophmore slump and Changing positions MAY take Braun down a notch..For the valie you spend at the draft(unless a keeper) he may be a "risky pick" although he still will be rated as above average.(also SB help his value)

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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby toledomudhens » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:10 am

i like him alot, but i don't see him putting up the kinda numbers he did last year..with that said i believe his value lies where people are going to take him in their drafts... i truley believe taking him as high as 1st and 2nd rounds are taking a little more of a gamble, where if you could snag him somewhere in the middle of the 3rd or top of the 4th your getting great value with no risk..
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:38 am

If you expect a repeat of last year then you will be disappointed. Still I would be surprised to see him available any later than the 3rd round.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby J35J » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:52 am

I really like Braun....with that said, I've been saying for months that Braun is going to be overrated. People have him in the late first to second rounds....I won't touch him until the 3rd at the earliest in most cases(anything can happen during the course of the draft of course). He's a stud and will be good for quite some time but to draft him in the first or second round is a risk not really worth taking in most cases.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby markj11 » Fri Dec 21, 2007 12:01 pm

talk show host wrote:
2 Ask Mark Teahen and Billy Hall about changing positions..this is not a secret..there is a potential to suffer decline in Batting when players change positions


That may be true but maybe moving him to a less demanding position would also remove that burden in the back of his mind. His defensive problems are clearly a mention issue.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby StlSluggers » Fri Dec 21, 2007 12:19 pm

talk show host wrote:I truely believe Braun may be overvalued this year

I agree. There are the usual slump risk flags here on Braun: Low BB rate, high K rate, extraordinarily high BABIP. However, I think he's too good of a hitter to just fall on his face. I think his BABIP is one of true outliers that is where it's supposed to be. Sort of like Albert, ARod, and Pronk, he's just one of those guys who hits balls so hard that they end up as hits more often than normal.

The risk with Braun is, imo, based on this perfect storm of events. First, he's getting ridiculous hype from Bill James: .326/.383/.660. That's first-round production right there. That's going to keep his ADP very high this coming spring; way too high.

Second, he has an unusual risk factor associated with him: terrible fielding. He's such a terrible fielder, there is the risk - albeit small - that if he does falter badly, he will get benched. We've seen a guy have a great streak, stumble, get benched, and then disappear for an extended time. We're not talking about Scott Rolen here. If he slips to .250, he becomes an offensive and defensive liability. He'll be riding the pine.

I'm going to stick to my usual assertion that a first-round pick should be first and foremost reliable. Braun will almost certainly go in the first round in a majority of drafts. With all the variability out there, I would rather take a player with a proven offensive and health record than a rookie flash who carries a ton of risk factors in his skill set - even if his ceiling is through the roof.

Now give me Braun in a contract/keeper league or in the 3rd round, and I'm singing a different tune. I'm just saying I wouldn't touch him in the first round of a redraft.
Last edited by StlSluggers on Fri Dec 21, 2007 12:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Yoda » Fri Dec 21, 2007 12:19 pm

Braun is a risk but not for the reasons you posted.

Sophomore slump is a myth. There is no proof that significant drop off in certain second year players' production is related to their years of service time.

Also, position change is not a good argument either. Some players handle position switch with relative ease. Plus he switched positions in college from SS to 3B and his numbers did not suffer as a result. If anything, going from 3B where he is absolutely horrid to LF which is a much easier position to play would help him and not hurt him.

There is no question about his bat. You can pretty much nitpick any player's numbers since no one is perfect. I think the risk is offset by reward in his case. He has tremendous power and he is only growing. When you consider the fact that he's been using wooden bats for less than two years before joining the big club, his accomplishments are even more impressive. He is a gambler's pick in 2008 but I think the chances of him repeating or improving are greater than not.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby talk show host » Fri Dec 21, 2007 12:48 pm

Hear is a list Of the 116 total winners, 87 were hitters and 29 were pitchers. By those numbers, pitchers seem under-represented, receiving just 25% of the awards. In recent years, however, pitchers have won slightly more often. Since 1995, six pitchers have won the award, compared to 14 hitters. The average Rookie of the Year season has been worth 19 Win Shares, so last year's winners were both below average in that respect; Bay had 18 Win Shares, while Crosby had 13.

So, now that we know a little bit about the 116 Rookie of the Year winners, let's take a look at how they performed in their sophomore seasons. Since Bay and Crosby are just starting their second seasons, they are excluded from this little study. That leaves 114 players left to look at (using Win Shares). Of those 114 Rookie of the Year winners ...

- 73 declined in their second year (64.0%)
- 37 improved in their second year (32.5%)
- 4 stayed the same in their second year (3.5%)
a study published In hard Ball Timeshttp://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ ... ore-slump/
As for changin positions?? Ask Billy Hall and Mark Teahen and many more that we all have seen I appreciate your commnts as I hope ypu undersyand Im not saying braun is a flop but these factors May be a cause for a setback :-)
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby Yoda » Fri Dec 21, 2007 12:58 pm

talk show host wrote:Hear is a list Of the 116 total winners, 87 were hitters and 29 were pitchers. By those numbers, pitchers seem under-represented, receiving just 25% of the awards. In recent years, however, pitchers have won slightly more often. Since 1995, six pitchers have won the award, compared to 14 hitters. The average Rookie of the Year season has been worth 19 Win Shares, so last year's winners were both below average in that respect; Bay had 18 Win Shares, while Crosby had 13.

So, now that we know a little bit about the 116 Rookie of the Year winners, let's take a look at how they performed in their sophomore seasons. Since Bay and Crosby are just starting their second seasons, they are excluded from this little study. That leaves 114 players left to look at (using Win Shares). Of those 114 Rookie of the Year winners ...

- 73 declined in their second year (64.0%)
- 37 improved in their second year (32.5%)
- 4 stayed the same in their second year (3.5%)
a study published In hard Ball Timeshttp://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ ... ore-slump/
As for changin positions?? Ask Billy Hall and Mark Teahen and many more that we all have seen I appreciate your commnts as I hope ypu undersyand Im not saying braun is a flop but these factors May be a cause for a setback :-)


The study doesn't mean anything to me since it only accounts for ROY winners. Not all ROY winners are the same and the quality of the rookie pool varies greatly from year to year.

Billy Hall and Mark Teahen's position change has little or nothing to do with Braun's situation. They are far less talented and Braun has already switched position pretty well: going from tough to easy in college SS to 3B. 3B to LF will also be an easier transition and there are no reasons to believe that will negatively affect his bat.
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Re: RYAN BRAUN A RISK??

Postby markj11 » Fri Dec 21, 2007 12:59 pm

EDIT: Nevermind
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