Yoda wrote:Probably should have waited until next winter. Look at the SP list (courtesy of mlbtraderumors): A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season Paul Byrd (38) Ryan Dempster (32) Jon Garland (29) Tom Glavine (43) Orlando Hernandez (43) Randy Johnson (45) John Lackey (30) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout Esteban Loaiza (37) - $7.5MM club option for '09 with a $0.375MM buyout Braden Looper (34) Derek Lowe (36) Greg Maddux (43) Pedro Martinez (37) Matt Morris (34) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $1MM buyout Jamie Moyer (46) Mark Mulder (31) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $1.5MM buyout Mike Mussina (40) Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $2MM buyout Oliver Perez (27) Andy Pettitte (37) Kenny Rogers (44) C.C. Sabathia (28) Johan Santana (30) Curt Schilling (42) Ben Sheets (30) John Smoltz (42) - $12MM club option for '09 Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option Woody Williams (42) - $6.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout Randy Wolf (32)
That's a list of injury risks and guys way past their prime or almost there. Sabathia, Lackey and Perez will all probably resign with the team they are on now. Burnett and Penny have a good chance of staying put as well. Santana will be traded. The list has a lot of big names on it but in reality it probably won't be all that much better than this year don't you think?
Yoda wrote:Probably should have waited until next winter. Look at the SP list (courtesy of mlbtraderumors): A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season Paul Byrd (38) Ryan Dempster (32) Jon Garland (29) Tom Glavine (43) Orlando Hernandez (43) Randy Johnson (45) John Lackey (30) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout Esteban Loaiza (37) - $7.5MM club option for '09 with a $0.375MM buyout Braden Looper (34) Derek Lowe (36) Greg Maddux (43) Pedro Martinez (37) Matt Morris (34) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $1MM buyout Jamie Moyer (46) Mark Mulder (31) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $1.5MM buyout Mike Mussina (40) Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $2MM buyout Oliver Perez (27) Andy Pettitte (37) Kenny Rogers (44) C.C. Sabathia (28) Johan Santana (30) Curt Schilling (42) Ben Sheets (30) John Smoltz (42) - $12MM club option for '09 Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option Woody Williams (42) - $6.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout Randy Wolf (32)
That's a list of injury risks and guys way past their prime or almost there. Sabathia, Lackey and Perez will all probably resign with the team they are on now. Burnett and Penny have a good chance of staying put as well. Santana will be traded. The list has a lot of big names on it but in reality it probably won't be all that much better than this year don't you think?
Are you serious? The list has multiple top pitchers in it. How many FA pitchers are available right now?
All pitchers come with risks including Silva. You have no idea whether CC, Lackey and Perez will resign with their teams. Burnett I guarantee you will opt out when you consider that he is twice the pitcher and Silva is getting $12 mil a year.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Tony Armas 29 Free Agent Pittsburgh -- NR Kris Benson 33 Free Agent Baltimore -- NR Roger Clemens 45 Free Agent NY Yankees -- NR Matt Clement 33 Free Agent Boston -- NR Bartolo Colon 34 Free Agent LA Angels -- 22 Matt DeSalvo 27 Non-Tendered NY Yankees -- NR Elmer Dessens 36 Free Agent Colorado -- NR Chad Durbin 30 Signed Detroit Philadelphia 1 NR Josh Fogg 31 Free Agent Colorado -- 37 Freddy Garcia 31 Free Agent (B) Philadelphia -- NR Player Age Status Old Team New Team Years Dollars Rank Jose Garcia 22 Non-Tendered Oakland -- NR Tom Glavine 41 Signed (A) NY Mets Atlanta 1 $8,000,000 50 Livan Hernandez 32 Free Agent (B) Arizona -- 30 Jason Jennings 29 Free Agent Houston -- NR Byung-Hyun Kim 28 Free Agent Florida -- NR Hiroki Kuroda 32 Signed Japan LA Dodgers 3 $35,300,000 NR Jon Lieber 37 Free Agent Philadelphia -- NR Kyle Lohse 29 Free Agent Philadelphia -- 11 Rodrigo Lopez 32 Free Agent Colorado -- NR Eric Milton 32 Free Agent Cincinnati -- NR Player Age Status Old Team New Team Years Dollars Rank Mike O'Connor 27 Non-Tendered Washington -- NR Russ Ortiz 33 Free Agent San Francisco -- NR Odalis Perez 30 Free Agent Kansas City -- NR Andy Pettitte 35 Signed NY Yankees NY Yankees 1 $16,000,000 5 Mark Prior 27 Non-Tendered Chicago Cubs -- NR Darrell Rasner 26 Non-Tendered NY Yankees -- NR Mark Redman 33 Signed Colorado Colorado 1 NR Kenny Rogers 43 Signed Detroit Detroit 1 $8,000,000 33 Carlos Silva 28 Signed Minnesota Seattle 4 $48,000,000 13 John Thomson 34 Free Agent Kansas City -- NR Player Age Status Old Team New Team Years Dollars Rank Brett Tomko 34 Free Agent San Diego -- NR Josh Towers 30 Non-Tendered Toronto -- NR Steve Trachsel 37 Free Agent Baltimore -- NR Jeff Weaver 31 Free Agent Seattle -- 45 David Wells 44 Free Agent LA Dodgers -- NR Kip Wells 30 Signed St. Louis Colorado 1 $3,100,000 NR Randy Wolf 31 Signed LA Dodgers San Diego 1 $4,750,000 41
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda wrote:Probably should have waited until next winter. Look at the SP list (courtesy of mlbtraderumors): Next years cream of the crop unless CC/Johan make it to FA A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season Ben Sheets (30)
I think one (possibly both) of these guys are signed to an extension C.C. Sabathia (28) Johan Santana (30)
Some other valuable pitchers Jon Garland (29) Pedro Martinez (37) Oliver Perez (27) Andy Pettitte (37) - probably only will sign with NYY
A) Seattle can't really wait until next year since Brandon Morrow, Rowland-Smith, Baek, and Horacio Ramirez are currently their options as #4 or #5 starters (In no way do I think that Silva and 48M are a good idea, but I understand why). And Washburn/Batista are not that great. The worst part is that Seattle locked up 30M in Silva/Washburn/Batista.
B) I really expect at least one of Johan/CC to be signed to an extension. After eliminating guys that will definitely have their options picked up and the guys that aren't that good or old, you are left with Sheets and Burnett to spend big money on (very good, but injury risks) with a couple of other intriguing guys (and a chance that CC/Johan is available).
C) You're totally right that next year's SP FA market is much better than this years. But that has more to do with the fact that Silva/Kuroda/Lohse are the best available pitchers this offseason.
You're right it's better than this year, but I don't think it's much better. Burnett is kind of the key guy but if he has a good first half I'd think Toronto would extend him. The rest of the list are guys on big market teams (or will be on big market teams) who will probably be resigned and guys who have a good chance of retiring after this season. I just don't think that list is going to look as appealing come next November.
kab21 wrote:A) Seattle can't really wait until next year since Brandon Morrow, Rowland-Smith, Baek, and Horacio Ramirez are currently their options as #4 or #5 starters (In no way do I think that Silva and 48M are a good idea, but I understand why). And Washburn/Batista are not that great. The worst part is that Seattle locked up 30M in Silva/Washburn/Batista.
There are other ways to get players besides spending $12M on an average one because the market says that's what he's worth. "He's better than what we've got now" is not a good excuse for spending $12M poorly. Unless you're the Yankees.
Tony Armas 29 Free Agent Pittsburgh -- NR Kris Benson 33 Free Agent Baltimore -- NR Roger Clemens 45 Free Agent NY Yankees -- NR Matt Clement 33 Free Agent Boston -- NR Bartolo Colon 34 Free Agent LA Angels -- 22 Matt DeSalvo 27 Non-Tendered NY Yankees -- NR Elmer Dessens 36 Free Agent Colorado -- NR Chad Durbin 30 Signed Detroit Philadelphia 1 NR Josh Fogg 31 Free Agent Colorado -- 37 Freddy Garcia 31 Free Agent (B) Philadelphia -- NR Player Age Status Old Team New Team Years Dollars Rank Jose Garcia 22 Non-Tendered Oakland -- NR Tom Glavine 41 Signed (A) NY Mets Atlanta 1 $8,000,000 50 Livan Hernandez 32 Free Agent (B) Arizona -- 30 Jason Jennings 29 Free Agent Houston -- NR Byung-Hyun Kim 28 Free Agent Florida -- NR Hiroki Kuroda 32 Signed Japan LA Dodgers 3 $35,300,000 NR Jon Lieber 37 Free Agent Philadelphia -- NR Kyle Lohse 29 Free Agent Philadelphia -- 11 Rodrigo Lopez 32 Free Agent Colorado -- NR Eric Milton 32 Free Agent Cincinnati -- NR Player Age Status Old Team New Team Years Dollars Rank Mike O'Connor 27 Non-Tendered Washington -- NR Russ Ortiz 33 Free Agent San Francisco -- NR Odalis Perez 30 Free Agent Kansas City -- NR Andy Pettitte 35 Signed NY Yankees NY Yankees 1 $16,000,000 5 Mark Prior 27 Non-Tendered Chicago Cubs -- NR Darrell Rasner 26 Non-Tendered NY Yankees -- NR Mark Redman 33 Signed Colorado Colorado 1 NR Kenny Rogers 43 Signed Detroit Detroit 1 $8,000,000 33 Carlos Silva 28 Signed Minnesota Seattle 4 $48,000,000 13 John Thomson 34 Free Agent Kansas City -- NR Player Age Status Old Team New Team Years Dollars Rank Brett Tomko 34 Free Agent San Diego -- NR Josh Towers 30 Non-Tendered Toronto -- NR Steve Trachsel 37 Free Agent Baltimore -- NR Jeff Weaver 31 Free Agent Seattle -- 45 David Wells 44 Free Agent LA Dodgers -- NR Kip Wells 30 Signed St. Louis Colorado 1 $3,100,000 NR Randy Wolf 31 Signed LA Dodgers San Diego 1 $4,750,000 41
Wow. Of what's unsigned there are 5 interesting pitchers , and that's it. Fatolo would be worth a gamble if you can get him for say 2 years x $8 mil. (Especially in this market). Why do teams keep non-tendering Jose Garcia? I know he's 3 feet tall and made of thin cardboard , but his stats seem good enough. Maybe pitching 177 innings in 2006 at age 21 has stuffed him arm - not unlike Ricky Nolasco
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kab21 wrote:A) Seattle can't really wait until next year since Brandon Morrow, Rowland-Smith, Baek, and Horacio Ramirez are currently their options as #4 or #5 starters (In no way do I think that Silva and 48M are a good idea, but I understand why). And Washburn/Batista are not that great. The worst part is that Seattle locked up 30M in Silva/Washburn/Batista.
There are other ways to get players besides spending $12M on an average one because the market says that's what he's worth. "He's better than what we've got now" is not a good excuse for spending $12M poorly. Unless you're the Yankees.
I did say ' in no way do I think that Silva and 48M are a good idea, but I understand why.' Bavasi made a choice not to trade any of the young players to bring in a pitcher. He made a choice not to take a flier on someone like Jeff Weaver (that worked out well...). Silva is way overpaid, but he should give the Mariners some stability in the rotation.
HOOTIE wrote:The sad part is the state of MLB. Guys with a career era+ of 102 (average), can get 11 mil a year. That means scrubs can get 5-6 mil. This only continues to show that pitching is diluted, and 24 teams never sounded better.
It is all cyclical. I think pitching is already catching back up. The fault is with GMs overpaying average guys.
True it is. And pitching is catching up with some good young arms. But with 30 teams, at 11-12 pitchers, there isn't enough quality arms to go around.
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by jfg » Fri Dec 21, 2007 4:48 pm 
