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Which projections do you trust most?

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What projections do you trust the most?

Baseball Forecaster
2
7%
Chone
0
No votes
ESPN
0
No votes
Marcel
0
No votes
PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
10
36%
Rototimes
0
No votes
Zips
0
No votes
Other
7
25%
I don't trust one more than any other
9
32%
 
Total votes : 28

Which projections do you trust most?

Postby jfg » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:41 pm

PECOTA
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Re: Which projections do you trust most?

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Dec 21, 2007 3:56 am

My own. ;-D
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Re: Which projections do you trust most?

Postby J35J » Fri Dec 21, 2007 9:46 am

AussieDodger wrote:My own. ;-D


;-D

I'm not sure I would play FBB if I didn't do the work my self.... :-?
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Re: Which projections do you trust most?

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Dec 21, 2007 10:10 am

J35J wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:My own. ;-D


;-D

I'm not sure I would play FBB if I didn't do the work my self.... :-?


Yeah it would just become cut-and-paste baseball if you didn't.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
I have a crack nearly every year at rating the previous years players , I have only done SP so far , in '07 Randy Johnson was the best SP :-S :-S :-S :-S ?
I only measure SP's Extra Base per IP , Walks per IP and K's per IP , and pit them against all the other SPs to get a ranking/score.
Obviously because he only pitched 50 innings RJ at #1 is incorrect.

Top 10 for 2007:
#1 Randy Johnson (528)
#2 John Smoltz (482)
#3 Beckett (473)
#4 Peavy (472)
#5 Bedard (467)
#6 Sabathia (456)
#7 Vasquez (448)
#8 Lackey (447)
#9 Shields (436)
#10 Hamels (436)

There is absolutely no bias in these rankings , this is just what the formula came up with. ;-D
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Re: Which projections do you trust most?

Postby J35J » Fri Dec 21, 2007 10:13 am

AussieDodger wrote:
Yeah it would just become cut-and-paste baseball if you didn't.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
I have a crack nearly every year at rating the previous years players , I have only done SP so far , in '07 Randy Johnson was the best SP :-S :-S :-S :-S ?
I only measure SP's Extra Base per IP , Walks per IP and K's per IP , and pit them against all the other SPs to get a ranking/score.
Obviously because he only pitched 50 innings RJ at #1 is incorrect.

Top 10 for 2007:
#1 Randy Johnson (528)
#2 John Smoltz (482)
#3 Beckett (473)
#4 Peavy (472)
#5 Bedard (467)
#6 Sabathia (456)
#7 Vasquez (448)
#8 Lackey (447)
#9 Shields (436)
#10 Hamels (436)

There is absolutely no bias in these rankings , this is just what the formula came up with. ;-D


You do your '08 rankings based on the numbers they put up in '07? :-? Maybe I'm confused with what you said?
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Re: Which projections do you trust most?

Postby Ender » Fri Dec 21, 2007 10:17 am

I look at a bunch of projections to get an idea of the value of players but I put the most faith in PECOTA for rate numbers and I like Forecaster because of the way he does his projections, showing skills and not just numbers.

In the end I make my own projections but I voted PECOTA.
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Re: Which projections do you trust most?

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Dec 21, 2007 10:21 am

J35J wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:
Yeah it would just become cut-and-paste baseball if you didn't.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
I have a crack nearly every year at rating the previous years players , I have only done SP so far , in '07 Randy Johnson was the best SP :-S :-S :-S :-S ?
I only measure SP's Extra Base per IP , Walks per IP and K's per IP , and pit them against all the other SPs to get a ranking/score.
Obviously because he only pitched 50 innings RJ at #1 is incorrect.

Top 10 for 2007:
#1 Randy Johnson (528)
#2 John Smoltz (482)
#3 Beckett (473)
#4 Peavy (472)
#5 Bedard (467)
#6 Sabathia (456)
#7 Vasquez (448)
#8 Lackey (447)
#9 Shields (436)
#10 Hamels (436)

There is absolutely no bias in these rankings , this is just what the formula came up with. ;-D


You do your '08 rankings based on the numbers they put up in '07? :-? Maybe I'm confused with what you said?


Partially. Obviously if someone moves teams , gets fat , is injured , was a late call-up etc they slide up or down the ladder.
Of course I'm going to knock Randy off the top when/if I go to draft.
It is very handy to know how well they did last year. Especially if someone is perceived to have had a good year and they haven't.
As you probably know I hate over-rated players. I call them Delmons :-D .
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Re: Which projections do you trust most?

Postby kellythemick » Fri Dec 21, 2007 10:54 am

Ender wrote:I look at a bunch of projections to get an idea of the value of players but I put the most faith in PECOTA for rate numbers and I like Forecaster because of the way he does his projections, showing skills and not just numbers.

In the end I make my own projections but I voted PECOTA.

Agreed.

AussieDodger wrote:My own. ;-D

I like to balance out my old school 'gut instincts' with the number crunchers.
If it's obvious it's probably true.
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Re: Which projections do you trust most?

Postby J35J » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:15 am

AussieDodger wrote:Partially. Obviously if someone moves teams , gets fat , is injured , was a late call-up etc they slide up or down the ladder.
Of course I'm going to knock Randy off the top when/if I go to draft.
It is very handy to know how well they did last year. Especially if someone is perceived to have had a good year and they haven't.
As you probably know I hate over-rated players. I call them Delmons :-D .


I was hoping I misunderstood you.... :-o To have a formula based on last years stats that you use for this year seems very flawed in many ways....its good you go back and tweak things but I would imagine "almost" every player would need to be tweaked?
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Re: Which projections do you trust most?

Postby StlSluggers » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:18 am

AussieDodger wrote:My own. ;-D

Yeah, you're going to have to put that in your list.

I mix-and-match each different system based on what I think they are best at, and then tweak them based on my personal opinion. For instance, I like Fantistic's closer projections a lot.
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