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Busts and Age?

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Re: Busts and Age?

Postby hot4tx » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:30 pm

I also think you need to use more than 1 year's worth of data


Very, very true. I've got my draft lists from at least the last 5 years. Again the stats would be skewed to my likes/dislikes (I tend to heavily downgrade guys the first year they are in the top 2 rounds for most people, tend to rank hitters higher, and tend to downgrade closers a lot) but it might be interesting.

If someone finds the historical ADP that might be more telling so put it on here. This would be quite the project, but could end up being pretty helpful. I'd assume this will end up being a non-normal data set, so I'll try to see what type of distribution fits it best and/or will try some sort of simple ratio with constants.

I probably won't be able to do this until January, but I think it would be pretty interesting to do. I will also try to include player ages (instead of age sets) so that I can age the players each year and see if there is some cut off or cut off range when different types of players (ie power hitters vs speed vs power pitchers vs finesse pitchers vs clsoers) begin to disappoint more. ;-D
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Re: Busts and Age?

Postby swyck » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:36 pm

I like what you're trying to do here, but I dont like your definition of "bust" using 20% - ADP.

IMO Amariz Ramirez is no bust if he goes from a 3rd rounder to a 4th (2008 ADP of 45, 2007 ADP of 33). He still had a decent year and that ADP is in the same range. Its obvious if you look at someone dropping from the 2nd overall pick to the 4th overall pick, which would be a 100% ADP drop. He's still a 1st rounder and no bust by any means!

I think first we need to define what a bust is. A start for a definition would be "a player who siginificantly underperforms their draft position".

So how do we quantify that? I think a better approach to use an absolute number and -- staying with the ADP concept -- I'd map it to rounds dropped (or added) using 12 picks per round as a baseline. So IMO moving from a 3rd rounder to a 4th rounder does not make one a bust, but what about dropping from 3rd to 6th? That is a 3 round drop (36 positions) which I'd say is a good starting point for busting. A first rounder dropping to 4th would be a bust, and so would a 10th rounder dropping to 13th.

To follow up further, in a 12 team 23 roster league, there are 276 draft picks. 55 picks (4.6 rounds) is just about 20% of the draft, 41 picks (3.4 rounds) 15%, and 36 picks (3 rounds) is about 13%. So what you'd be looking at is how far up or down the whole list of 276 drafted players did a player move up or down.

I think somewhere around 36 to 41 is a good number to use here.

Another concept that could be used here is "bustness ratio." For example if ARAM's ADP dropped 12 slots his ratio would be 12/276 = -4.3%. Pujols dropping from 1 to 3.8 would be (1-3.8)/276 = -1%. IMO this shows that even if Pulojs dropped a couple of slots his value has not dropped very much at all. Some dropping 39 slots would be -14.1%. So if you consider -15% to be a bust, someone at -14.1% is still losing value and has a high bustness ratio.
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Re: Busts and Age?

Postby Steve-o » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:39 pm

hot4tx wrote:
I also think you need to use more than 1 year's worth of data


Very, very true. I've got my draft lists from at least the last 5 years. ...


I have my own personal ADP charts back to 2003 (maybe it's 2004 - I switched computers that year).

hot4tx wrote:If someone finds the historical ADP that might be more telling so put it on here. This would be quite the project, but could end up being pretty helpful. I'd assume this will end up being a non-normal data set, so I'll try to see what type of distribution fits it best and/or will try some sort of simple ratio with constants.

I probably won't be able to do this until January, but I think it would be pretty interesting to do. I will also try to include player ages (instead of age sets) so that I can age the players each year and see if there is some cut off or cut off range when different types of players (ie power hitters vs speed vs power pitchers vs finesse pitchers vs clsoers) begin to disappoint more. ;-D


And that is why I didn't go more into it. I do have a more than full-time job. I essentially did what I could do in one night after work. Maybe I will have some time over the holidays to do some of this.
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Re: Busts and Age?

Postby hot4tx » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:42 pm

I think first we need to define what a bust is.


Yes, once we do that we should make sure to calibrate (for lack of a better term) our system to make sure that the % change is correctly identifying busts.
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Re: Busts and Age?

Postby Rhydderch » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:55 pm

I really like this Steve-O.

My main league is a competive 13 teamer auction (with keepers). As such, guys like pujos cost a disproportion amount when things are said and done. Therefore, him going from a ADP of 1 to 3.8 is fairly significant in my league (as I believe it would in any competive league). I like how you defined busts + achievers.

I think this also brings up a very good point that people know but can over look. The easiest way to throw out a season is to have one of your top guys flame out.

This is good stuff.
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