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What went wrong?

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Re: What went wrong?

Postby Steve-o » Wed Dec 19, 2007 12:49 am

Funny. I was just about to start a thread very similar to this, but I didn't think my results were interesting enough to share. I guess I will contribute to this thread. Anyways, I was looking at some early ADP info for 2008 and here are the players being drafted at least 75 spots lower this year. (Guys with an 2008 Avg of 251 are essentially not being drafted.)

Code: Select all
2007 Rank   2008 Avg   Diff   Name
67   239.0   -172.0   Rolen, S
64   222.0   -158.0   Hall, B
75   218.0   -143.0   Giambi, J
74   211.0   -137.0   Glaus, T
106   237.3   -131.3   Drew, J
92   221.3   -129.3   Sexson, R
128   251.0   -123.0   Piazza, M
117   236.7   -119.7   Barfield, J
123   242.3   -119.3   Iguchi, T
83   202.3   -119.3   Lopez, F
126   240.7   -114.7   Thomas, F
124   232.7   -108.7   Chavez, Eric
151   251.0   -100.0   Barrett, M
154   251.0   -97.0   Tracy, C
155   251.0   -96.0   Podsednik, S
50   138.7   -88.7   Delgado, C
161   243.7   -82.7   Crede, J
170   251.0   -81.0   Garciaparra, N
114   194.7   -80.7   Baldelli, R
107   186.0   -79.0   Lugo, J
111   188.7   -77.7   LaRoche, A


I was doing some analysis of this data, trying to figure out how to avoid players like this for this year and here are some of my numbers: 67% of hitters are over 30, 41% were injured, 38% had a history of injury, 67% had only one "good" statistical year, 10% were speed guys, only 48% of them had more than one of the bad factors, and of the guys over 30 on the list 54% them had only one statistical good year.

Basically, nothing really stood out to me, other than guys over 30 are more likely to hit the wall and guys without a history of success are more likely to bust (duh). I was hoping something would stick out, but the only things were the obvious ones.

BTW, here are the pitchers being drafted at least 75 spots lower

Code: Select all
2007 Rank   2008 Avg   Diff   Name
24   251.0   -227.0   Carpenter, C
96   251.0   -155.0   Ray, Chris
97   251.0   -154.0   Schmidt, J
57   189.7   -132.7   Ryan, B
121   251.0   -130.0   Fuentes, B
131   251.0   -120.0   Mussina, M
132   251.0   -119.0   Capuano, C
136   251.0   -115.0   Santana, Ervin
137   251.0   -114.0   Gordon, T
140   251.0   -111.0   Wickman, B
149   251.0   -102.0   Johnson, J
146   246.7   -100.7   Johnson, R
93   191.0   -98.0   Willis, D
148   246.0   -98.0   Bush, D
79   171.7   -92.7   Weaver, Jered
129   215.0   -86.0   Gagne, E
165   251.0   -86.0   Gonzalez, Mike
82   167.0   -85.0   Bonderman, J
104   187.0   -83.0   Harden, R
173   251.0   -78.0   Olsen, S


Of those pitchers, the average age is only 30.6 (and if you take RJ out, it's under 30), and only 45% of them are over 30. I haven't taken the time to run the rest of the numbers (I was pretty deflated after doing everything for the hitters and not finding anything all that worthwhile), but my guess is most of those guys are injury risks.

Maybe somebody can come at this data from an different angle and shed a decent theory on it for us. I'm sure this is useful info to have, as avoiding the biggest busts in the mid rounds of your draft is a key to winning imo.
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Re: What went wrong?

Postby Grouperman941 » Wed Dec 19, 2007 1:14 am

Chadgo5 wrote:What went wrong? Baseball is unpredictable. Someone who thinks he can forecast perfomance consistently and correctly is a fool. There are too many factors that go into performance.... injury, age, mentality, contracts, PEDs, declining skills, weaknesses suddenly found and exploited, personal issues, personality conflicts, luck, desire, etc.

It is an endless list. And unless it is an obvious or reported injury, most of us will never know the reasons. Its all just speculation. But that is what is great about the game.


Ah, this is why I am working on a Draft Prep method relying sloely on my old and dusty collection of D&D Dice. :-)

Nice topic, and nice info, Steve-o. ;-D
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Re: What went wrong?

Postby ayebatter » Wed Dec 19, 2007 2:19 am

I'm in a long term 15 team money league, straight draft, no trades. My 1st 3 picks, Puljols-Carpenter-Bay, I never recovered from the draft and finished 3rd, still in the money,but I should have won it all. :,-(
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Re: What went wrong?

Postby Yoda » Wed Dec 19, 2007 2:25 am

Steve-o wrote:Funny. I was just about to start a thread very similar to this, but I didn't think my results were interesting enough to share. I guess I will contribute to this thread. Anyways, I was looking at some early ADP info for 2008 and here are the players being drafted at least 75 spots lower this year. (Guys with an 2008 Avg of 251 are essentially not being drafted.)

Code: Select all
2007 Rank   2008 Avg   Diff   Name
67   239.0   -172.0   Rolen, S
64   222.0   -158.0   Hall, B
75   218.0   -143.0   Giambi, J
74   211.0   -137.0   Glaus, T
106   237.3   -131.3   Drew, J
92   221.3   -129.3   Sexson, R
128   251.0   -123.0   Piazza, M
117   236.7   -119.7   Barfield, J
123   242.3   -119.3   Iguchi, T
83   202.3   -119.3   Lopez, F
126   240.7   -114.7   Thomas, F
124   232.7   -108.7   Chavez, Eric
151   251.0   -100.0   Barrett, M
154   251.0   -97.0   Tracy, C
155   251.0   -96.0   Podsednik, S
50   138.7   -88.7   Delgado, C
161   243.7   -82.7   Crede, J
170   251.0   -81.0   Garciaparra, N
114   194.7   -80.7   Baldelli, R
107   186.0   -79.0   Lugo, J
111   188.7   -77.7   LaRoche, A


I was doing some analysis of this data, trying to figure out how to avoid players like this for this year and here are some of my numbers: 67% of hitters are over 30, 41% were injured, 38% had a history of injury, 67% had only one "good" statistical year, 10% were speed guys, only 48% of them had more than one of the bad factors, and of the guys over 30 on the list 54% them had only one statistical good year.

Basically, nothing really stood out to me, other than guys over 30 are more likely to hit the wall and guys without a history of success are more likely to bust (duh). I was hoping something would stick out, but the only things were the obvious ones.

BTW, here are the pitchers being drafted at least 75 spots lower

Code: Select all
2007 Rank   2008 Avg   Diff   Name
24   251.0   -227.0   Carpenter, C
96   251.0   -155.0   Ray, Chris
97   251.0   -154.0   Schmidt, J
57   189.7   -132.7   Ryan, B
121   251.0   -130.0   Fuentes, B
131   251.0   -120.0   Mussina, M
132   251.0   -119.0   Capuano, C
136   251.0   -115.0   Santana, Ervin
137   251.0   -114.0   Gordon, T
140   251.0   -111.0   Wickman, B
149   251.0   -102.0   Johnson, J
146   246.7   -100.7   Johnson, R
93   191.0   -98.0   Willis, D
148   246.0   -98.0   Bush, D
79   171.7   -92.7   Weaver, Jered
129   215.0   -86.0   Gagne, E
165   251.0   -86.0   Gonzalez, Mike
82   167.0   -85.0   Bonderman, J
104   187.0   -83.0   Harden, R
173   251.0   -78.0   Olsen, S


Of those pitchers, the average age is only 30.6 (and if you take RJ out, it's under 30), and only 45% of them are over 30. I haven't taken the time to run the rest of the numbers (I was pretty deflated after doing everything for the hitters and not finding anything all that worthwhile), but my guess is most of those guys are injury risks.

Maybe somebody can come at this data from an different angle and shed a decent theory on it for us. I'm sure this is useful info to have, as avoiding the biggest busts in the mid rounds of your draft is a key to winning imo.


Sounds about right. I've done this in the past and found that draft is important but in the later rounds. More important is getting players during the season via trades and free agency.

Pitchers are definitely unpredictable more so than position players. This is why a lot of people put more emphasis in hitting than pitching.
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Re: What went wrong?

Postby The Cow » Wed Dec 19, 2007 10:49 am

Bloody Sox wrote:Some mostly-non-injured underperformers drafted high in my leagues:
- Hafner
- Bay
- M. Young
- Konerko
- B. Hall
- A. Jones
- R. Furcal: injured early, but never recovered
- Swisher

What went wrong? I'd love to know... especially with Hafner.


As for Hafner he got a lot skinnier last year. Supposedly his wife got him eating healthy, but I think he is off the PEDs, IMO. Though it could have something to do with his eyes as he struggled against breaking balls low and in. I mean teams were getting him out with the low and in breaking ball all year. He had some very ugly swings against the low and in breaker.

Bay, I think his knee played a role, but...

M. Young- I thought he was over valued to begin with
Konerko- good question, though Konerko has had a clunker season before, so it could have just been a bad season. A good bet to bounce back here.
B. Hall- Probably played over his head in 2006.
A Jones- I guess it was the FA??? This one is the biggest head shaker.
Furcal- I think it was injuries
Swisher- Is over rated by many. This guy is more of a .250 hitter, maybe he can hit .280 one year.

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Re: What went wrong?

Postby Rhydderch » Wed Dec 19, 2007 5:49 pm

Nice work Steve-O.

Carlos Delgado, theres another guy. He had some injury problems, but did hit better in the second half than the first. Could be someone to keep an eye on. Though he will be 36 next year, so maybe his great career is winding down....
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Re: What went wrong?

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Wed Dec 19, 2007 6:25 pm

Nice job. It hurt to have BHall on my roster last year. !+)
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Re: What went wrong?

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Wed Dec 19, 2007 8:39 pm

Atkins was brutal but more than made up for it late in the season.

Of all the above guys, Hafner is one that I'm still uncomfortable drafting "too early" this year.
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