What went wrong?

[jfg]

What players had high expectations last year, what went wrong, and will they bounce back this year? Also, do you see anybody following a similar path this year?

I rarely see mistakes in projections recounted and it's a shame because it's probably the best way to understand how to avoid mistakes in the future.

[hot4tx]

Andruw Jones: had probably his worst year since becoming a starter. Could be that he was just trying too hard because he was in a contract year and never settled in. It could be that he has some nagging injuries that he played through because of the contract year instead of resting. Also of course any time a guy bulks up a little and hits for power and then drops off substantially there are "other" rumors.

Honestly I have no idea what to make of him or how we could have seen this coming. One thing I did think about this year was something I read discussing guys that aren't good pure "hitters" like Jones, Beltran and Soriano being more likely to have large swings in their production even for whole years. Could Jones just have had a down year?


Jason Bay: had another even worse year. We knew that his steals were declining and I think he was a bit overrated because of 2005 numbers. Also his supporting cast is just so bad (LaRoche was not as good as hoped for most of the season) that he really had no potential for his Runs and RBI to increase much and it would have been hard to repeat past numbers. Also again there will be "rumors" in this day and age.

[Yoda]

A lot of misprojections are due to injuries.

[Bloody Sox]

Some mostly-non-injured underperformers drafted high in my leagues:
- Hafner
- Bay
- M. Young
- Konerko
- B. Hall
- A. Jones
- R. Furcal: injured early, but never recovered
- Swisher

What went wrong? I'd love to know... especially with Hafner.

[AussieDodger]

Some mostly-non-injured underperformers drafted high in my leagues:
- Swisher

What went wrong? I'd love to know... especially with Hafner.

I think Swisher just had an off year. He hit extra base hits at pretty much exactly the same rate per at-bat , it's just that less were homers.
He should bounce back in '08 , he's definately a 30-35 HR guy. Decent sleeper.

I think Hafner was carrying an injury in 2007.
From hitting 74 Extra Base hits from 454 at bats in 2006 to 51 Extra Base hits from 545 at bats in 2007 - that's a huge power outage.
He would be someone I'd buy super low in a dynasty/keeper league and not expect the world from him (certainly not 40 HR).

[Ender]

Swisher(shoulder and something else that I forget) and Bay (knee) both had injuries, Hafner was coming off of a wrist injury. Hall switched positions and played with an ankle injury for most of the 2nd half of the season.

[Rhydderch]

Konerko is a guy I'm looking at next year. The guys homeruns, walks, strikeouts, and extra base hits were all similar to previous years. I think his average dipped a bit because he got unlucky and his rbi/runs were down because of this and also his team sucking. I think next year 280-30-100 are reasonable. I am a little worried about the decline in home run totals the last three years (and corresponding increase in doubles) but I think he'll provide good value in 08.

[jfg]

Has there ever been a study done of how many older players bounce back from injuries? Just thinking about it, it seems like it would be a small number. I'm talking about players around 30 or older.

[Chadgo5]

What went wrong? Baseball is unpredictable. Someone who thinks he can forecast perfomance consistently and correctly is a fool. There are too many factors that go into performance.... injury, age, mentality, contracts, PEDs, declining skills, weaknesses suddenly found and exploited, personal issues, personality conflicts, luck, desire, etc.

It is an endless list. And unless it is an obvious or reported injury, most of us will never know the reasons. Its all just speculation. But that is what is great about the game.

[jfg]

But, at least you can use those things to make a guess at the next year. It's true that changes in performance are tough to predict but once the decline happens it's easier to take a look at the player and try to figure out why that happened and if it will continue.