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Re: Nick Johnson

Postby stumpak » Tue Dec 18, 2007 1:01 pm

[quote="High Heater"][quote="cordscords"]Potential sapped by injuries, supporting cast, and RFK.[/quote]

only problem is RFK isnt their home anymore, and the supporting cast got potentialy better this year.[/quote]

This is the right answer. The new park can only be better than RFK. Johnson will put up good numbers WHEN HEALTHY, probably better than expected, although as mentioned he is rarely healthy. He is the Milton Bradley of 1Bs - when healthy has good value, but few league structures accomodate guys like this very well.
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Re: Nick Johnson

Postby KCollins1304 » Tue Dec 18, 2007 1:23 pm

stumpak wrote:
High Heater wrote:
cordscords wrote:Potential sapped by injuries, supporting cast, and RFK.


only problem is RFK isnt their home anymore, and the supporting cast got potentialy better this year.


This is the right answer. The new park can only be better than RFK. Johnson will put up good numbers WHEN HEALTHY, probably better than expected, although as mentioned he is rarely healthy. He is the Milton Bradley of 1Bs - when healthy has good value, but few league structures accomodate guys like this very well.


Just looking at the dimensions of the new park, it doesn't look much different than RFK. Plus it's on the water, which would just make the air more humid. I'm not sure about the wind patterns there though.
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Re: Nick Johnson

Postby cordscords » Tue Dec 18, 2007 1:57 pm

The new stadium is finished? I thought '08 was the last year at RFK.

My bad. Just replace my RFK statement with still plays in a pitchers park.
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Re: Nick Johnson

Postby Rhydderch » Tue Dec 18, 2007 2:21 pm

Thanks for the responses.

Incidently, the nationals are playing in a new stadium this year. Rotoauthority had an article about it, basically saying that it is neither a pitcher park nor a hitters park. Considering how much RFK was a pitchers park, most of the National hitters should be better off.
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Re: Nick Johnson

Postby talk show host » Tue Dec 18, 2007 2:31 pm

This is what the park factor model that I’ve developed for PECOTA thinks, based on a host of factors like field dimensions, altitude, average temperature, and the like. All park factors are listed baseball-reference style, where 100 represents average.

Nats Park RFK 99.3 88.9
LHB Runs 98.9 93.8
LHB HR 101.1 88.5

RHB Runs 98.0 93.5
RHB HRBasically, we’re removing one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball and replacing it with what looks like it should be a neutral park. Although Nats Park is a natural-grass field located close to sea level, which always represses run-scoring a bit, its friendlier dimensions should help the Nationals score an extra 30 or so runs this year. Left-handed hitters look like they will get most of the benefit. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=677
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Re: Nick Johnson

Postby Yoda » Tue Dec 18, 2007 3:13 pm

Not sure how anyone can determine what the new park will be like before anyone's even played a game there.

That being said, chances are it will be more neutral than not since RFK was such an extreme pitcher's park but we won't know for sure until they start playing there.

NJ is a much better player than a fantasy player. Health obviously is the big question mark for him but when healthy, he should post numbers similar to 06.
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Re: Nick Johnson

Postby cordscords » Tue Dec 18, 2007 3:18 pm

Then scratch everything I said about his home park. LOL. This is what happens when I'm not getting enough sleep. I need to pull up a reference instead of just counting on my brain.

That being said, I still don't think he's worth much this year.
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Re: Nick Johnson

Postby markj11 » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:33 pm

I watched a show on LTC or Discovery that documented the building of the new park. It showed why RFK was such a pitchers park. It basically showed a computer generated image that showed how the wind would swirl around the inside of the stadium since it was bowl shaped. Kinda created a vortex, the new stadium is open so this will not be the case. It was a pretty neat program, it showed that 4 seats were not put into the stadium that were in plans b/c they would not offer a good view.
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Re: Nick Johnson

Postby Yoda » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:37 pm

markj11 wrote:I watched a show on LTC or Discovery that documented the building of the new park. It showed why RFK was such a pitchers park. It basically showed a computer generated image that showed how the wind would swirl around the inside of the stadium since it was bowl shaped. Kinda created a vortex, the new stadium is open so this will not be the case. It was a pretty neat program, it showed that 4 seats were not put into the stadium that were in plans b/c they would not offer a good view.


That's pretty cool. I'll have to find it. Still, until they start playing there, I don't think you will know for sure how the park will play out.
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Re: Nick Johnson

Postby stumpak » Wed Dec 19, 2007 10:30 am

talk show host wrote:This is what the park factor model that I’ve developed for PECOTA thinks, based on a host of factors like field dimensions, altitude, average temperature, and the like. All park factors are listed baseball-reference style, where 100 represents average.

Nats Park RFK 99.3 88.9
LHB Runs 98.9 93.8
LHB HR 101.1 88.5

RHB Runs 98.0 93.5
RHB HRBasically, we’re removing one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball and replacing it with what looks like it should be a neutral park. Although Nats Park is a natural-grass field located close to sea level, which always represses run-scoring a bit, its friendlier dimensions should help the Nationals score an extra 30 or so runs this year. Left-handed hitters look like they will get most of the benefit. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=677


If this is true, it makes Johnson more attractive, but it makes Kearns a super attractive sleeper. Look at his home/road splits from last year - he could put up some real nice mumbers with a neutral home park.
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