os_gamejunkie wrote: Tavish wrote: Guzman24 wrote:
How does this affect Haren's fantasy value???
Move to the NL
Better offence behind him
As a Haren owner I'm
Moving from the Coliseum to Chase The guy gave up a bunch of HRs for #1 or #2 starter in the Coliseum
. Now in the new Launching pad it might be ugly.
That's because Haren pitches in the strike zone, avoiding the walk as much as possible. 17 of his HR given up last year came with no runners on meaning he still pretty stingy.
He gives up a higher number of HRs because he is a flyball pitcher. His decent walk rate certainly helps minimize the damage but it doesn't change that you have to expect the number of HRs he gives up next year to climb.
HOOTIE wrote:The change in parks is big i agree. But don't you think some of it is negated by no dh, increasing his K/9, a better defense, and his bad luck last year leading MLB in tough losses with 8.
The R/G difference and slightly increased K's should help offset it some. But he is moving from a Top 5 AL defensive team to a Top 5 NL defensive team so I don't see him getting any extra help there. As far as wins go him getting 15 wins is just about right for how he pitched last year. His Expected Wins according to BP was 14.4. He is moving to an Arizona team that I don't expect to be close to winning 90 games again. This a team that played in a hitters park and still had the 4th worst offense in the NL and was outscored by 30 runs over the course of the season.
If Haren can beat his DIPs by half a run again and the D-Backs regress back to where Pythag would expect them then he will be right around the same amount of wins.
RynMan wrote:I agree Hootie. Johan Santana gives up a bunch of HRs as well, and he seems to get by alright. As long as he keeps the walk rate down and the defense behind can keep hits from landing in (which it will in ARZ), should be solo shots. I think he gets a slight bump.
Haren isn't even close to the same league of a pitcher as Santana, he can get away with allowing a few extra homeruns because they aren't getting many other type of hits off of him. But Santana's 2007 season is a good indication of what can happen when your HR rate inflates some. It doesn't destroy a pitcher but can make a tough impact on their production.