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Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros

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Re: Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros

Postby IllinoisBandit » Wed Dec 12, 2007 6:56 pm

I don't know how many Astros games ya'll watched last year, but Everett was very, very poor at the plate. Much worse than even his numbers indicate. If a pitcher had to get him out in a clutch situation it was all but automatic by MLB standards.

I think this was a big upgrade for the Astros and that they got a pretty good deal.
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Re: Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Dec 12, 2007 10:15 pm

hot4tx wrote:We might see a little jump up in HR from last year in the juice box, but we're still talking about a 20-HR hitter.


Somebody needs to check the park factors for B'more and Houston. Camden Yards was #4 park for HRs last year. Minute Maid was #13.
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Re: Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Dec 12, 2007 10:21 pm

I'm OK with this trade for the O's. Of course, the Angels COULD have offered more, but were they? It was clear that the offensive, defensive, and steroid ? with Miggy were hurting his value and the O's were getting no A prospect offers. Trading him for multiple B/C prospects is the next best thing. Scott may not be a star, but he would have been the second best hitter on the Orioles last year. He'll improve the current team, and could potentially be flipped for more prospects later. I'm hoping some of the positive comments on Patton and Costanzo come true.

Now, we need to flip Bedard and Roberts for 2-4 prospects each, including at least one A prospect. Add Pie and a few Cubbies for Roberts, and Votto/Encarnacion/Cueto would be nice. Couple them with Guthrie, Loewen, Wieters, Rowell, and Markakis and you've got something going.
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Re: Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros

Postby Scooter1027 » Wed Dec 12, 2007 11:45 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
hot4tx wrote:We might see a little jump up in HR from last year in the juice box, but we're still talking about a 20-HR hitter.


Somebody needs to check the park factors for B'more and Houston. Camden Yards was #4 park for HRs last year. Minute Maid was #13.


Hmm, I'm surprised Houston's not a little higher. I wonder if there's data on park factors for righties versus lefties? I would think that the short porch Crawford Boxes would be a boon for right handed hitters, but that park is definitely not made for lefties. And whatever you do, don't hit one to CF. That stupid flagpole that's in play on that hill that's like 600 feet away. I still remember the day Richie Sexson hit like a mile long bomb to CF as a Brewer, and it left a permanent mark as it clanged somewhat high off that flagpole and stayed in play. I guess I could see why Houston wanted Michael Bourn with that huge CF to cover.
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Re: Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Dec 12, 2007 11:56 pm

Using 3 year park factors, Minute Maid is much better for RHB than LHB for HRs (119/104). But Camden Yards also has that nice porch for righties, and it's been 120 for RHB versus 97 for lefties.
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Re: Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros

Postby Scooter1027 » Thu Dec 13, 2007 1:18 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Using 3 year park factors, Minute Maid is much better for RHB than LHB for HRs (119/104). But Camden Yards also has that nice porch for righties, and it's been 120 for RHB versus 97 for lefties.


Interesting, thanks, good find. That's an interesting piece of information comparing Camden to Minute Maid -- I would have expected Minute Maid to be as good as it gets for righties. So basically, park wise, it's a wash for Tejada. I guess they have that short porch but that's in the "dead pull" range. Then it takes that right angle sharp turn and turns into that bizarre tall wall that just goes straight back to a point in CF. That's probably not easy on righties because it gets disportionately deeper the more towards center you hit it, plus the home run line is painted kind of far up.

If I may, do you have the link where you found the prak factor splits? Not that I doubt you at all, I'd actually like to look at it myself.
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Re: Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros

Postby Yoda » Thu Dec 13, 2007 1:25 am

I think protection will be a factor for Tejada as well. He hasn't had a lot of support in BAL. So many people wrote him off after last year but don't forget that he was injured also.
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Re: Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros

Postby Scooter1027 » Thu Dec 13, 2007 1:34 am

Yoda wrote:I think protection will be a factor for Tejada as well. He hasn't had a lot of support in BAL. So many people wrote him off after last year but don't forget that he was injured also.


True, but that's a concern for me too. I know he doesn't have a strong injury history, but he's coming off some injuries and is on the wrong side of 30.
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Re: Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Dec 13, 2007 7:24 am

Haven't seen 3 year park factors online, but they are in Bill James Handbook.

The injury issue is something that I think a lot of fantasy players get wrong, because they tend to assume that injuries are just random events. So, they over-correct, assuming that injured guys are more likely to rebound. The truth is that most baseball injuries are the result of repetitive stress and simple aging. So, if a guy was injured last year, you ought to assume that those injury trends will continue in most cases. There's certainly some random fluctuation around that trend and Miggy has been much more durable than average. Still, I'd expect him to miss 5-10 games from injury next year and not rebound as high as he performed previously.
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Re: Miguel Tejada traded to the Astros

Postby mak1277 » Thu Dec 13, 2007 10:35 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:The injury issue is something that I think a lot of fantasy players get wrong, because they tend to assume that injuries are just random events.


A broken bone stemming from a hit-by-pitch is pretty random...definitely not a repetetive stress injury. That said, I agree that things tend to snowball and last year's injury may have an ongoing impact, but Miggy's been the most durable player in the game over the course of his career, so maybe he deserves a little slack.
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