jfg wrote:Interesting. I think you're selling your team short. This is Milwaukee's year unless something big happens to Chicago.
Again, as I said, it's a current snapshot. There's much to come yet this offseason that could change that. As of right this minute, Riske hasn't officially signed yet, Cordero/Linebrink are gone -- the bullpen's messy. I hope/expect that to be fixed, and that could be the difference. A healthy Sheets/Gallardo/Villanueva/Suppan/Parra?Bush?Capuano? rotation could very effective, and certainly the bats will be there. If this rumored Rolen deal goes through, the defense improves significanly too. But who knows, it's too early. Right now the Cubs I think are a little ahead.
My point was more that I see Houston in 5th at best, despite having 4 of the best players in the division. They just haven't built a good supporting cast and they don't have a good minor league system to draw from.
I would have liked for the Rockies to have kept Kaz, but at that kind of a price I think they made the right move. The Rockies did increase their original offer up to 2 years/$10 million, but I guess that wasn't enough to make him want to stay in Colorado. I wish him luck in Houston.
Rockies are interested in Mark Loretta (along with the Yankees). I wouldn't mind him, as he's versitle and would bring in more competetion for the vacant 2B job.
Following up with a hot ending to 06 Kaz turned into a damn fine 2B with Col. in 07. From a fantasy perspective i'm glad to see him out of Col., as he was splitting time with Carrol. Batted nearly 290 with a good OBP and speed, and doesn't strikeout...great signing if you ask me.
Philliebuster wrote:Following up with a hot ending to 06 Kaz turned into a damn fine 2B with Col. in 07. From a fantasy perspective i'm glad to see him out of Col., as he was splitting time with Carrol. Batted nearly 290 with a good OBP and speed, and doesn't strikeout...great signing if you ask me.
At Coors Field -- .330/.381/.482 (.864) Away -- .249/.304/.333 (.637)
Just not a good signing. Those away numbers line up much better with the numbers he put up while a Met.
Philliebuster wrote:Following up with a hot ending to 06 Kaz turned into a damn fine 2B with Col. in 07. From a fantasy perspective i'm glad to see him out of Col., as he was splitting time with Carrol. Batted nearly 290 with a good OBP and speed, and doesn't strikeout...great signing if you ask me.
At Coors Field -- .330/.381/.482 (.864) Away -- .249/.304/.333 (.637)
Just not a good signing. Those away numbers line up much better with the numbers he put up while a Met.
Being that his historical #'s don't support this home/away trend, I think this differential is most likely an anomoly. Colorado isn't the hitting park it use to be, so perhaps it's a minor adjustable mental situation for him, Minute Maid Park perhaps will become his new "home". Look at the positives, and possibly more important than the home/away splits...is he hit both righties and lefties well, hit .290 with runners in scoring position (RISP), .388 with RISP and two outs, .290 in late inning pressure at bats, .355 as a leadoff hitter. The Colorado ballpark don't produce these stats. I think Kaz is rounding into the player he was in Japan, he won't be a star, but he'll be a slightly above average 2B offensively.
Philliebuster wrote:Following up with a hot ending to 06 Kaz turned into a damn fine 2B with Col. in 07. From a fantasy perspective i'm glad to see him out of Col., as he was splitting time with Carrol. Batted nearly 290 with a good OBP and speed, and doesn't strikeout...great signing if you ask me.
At Coors Field -- .330/.381/.482 (.864) Away -- .249/.304/.333 (.637)
Just not a good signing. Those away numbers line up much better with the numbers he put up while a Met.
Being that his historical #'s don't support this home/away trend, I think this differential is most likely an anomoly. Colorado isn't the hitting park it use to be, so perhaps it's a minor adjustable mental situation for him, Minute Maid Park perhaps will become his new "home". Look at the positives, and possibly more important than the home/away splits...is he hit both righties and lefties well, hit .290 with runners in scoring position (RISP), .388 with RISP and two outs, .290 in late inning pressure at bats, .355 as a leadoff hitter. The Colorado ballpark don't produce these stats. I think Kaz is rounding into the player he was in Japan, he won't be a star, but he'll be a slightly above average 2B offensively.
Interesting analysis, but I think you are underselling the Coors factor too much. You're right, his historical numbers don't support the home/away trend...because his homes games didn't use to be at Coors. That's kinda my point. Prior to his stint in Coors, he was a sub-.700 OPS player both home and away, then when he gets to the Rockies, he's still sub-.700 on the road, but suddenly .850+ at home? Sorry, I don't buy that as an anomoly, the split is too large. Coors is still a hitters park, not necessarily for power, but for average. It's a fantastic doubles and triples park. I'm not sure what would make you think otherwise. Look at the league-wide park factors over the last 5 years and where Coors ranks:
2007: 3rd 2006: 2nd 2005: 1st 2004: 1st 2003: 4th
Additionally, we're talking about a 32 year old who has had exactly one acceptable full MLB season, guys don't typically just start getting better in their 30s. I think what Houston is getting is more like the player with the career .272/.325/.387 line (.712), which would still be better than his days in NY, but won't really approach his Colorado production. A below average offensive player with reliable-to-good defense. To me, that's not worth the money he'll be making, Houston could likely get equivalent production for much less.
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by Pogotheostrich » Fri Nov 30, 2007 1:15 pm 
