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2008 Projections

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2008 Projections

Postby Yoda » Wed Nov 21, 2007 12:33 pm

Because fantasy football is so boring for me (currently in 2nd place at 8-3, clinched playoffs and a first round bye), I am starting to look for 2008 projections. Bill James projections are out at Fangraphs if you guys want to check it out.

Also, CHONE projections are out. You can find them here: http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/. I put it in an Excel sheet and sorted by K9 for pitchers and HR for hitters. If you would like me to email you a copy, then PM me with your email addy. If you find other websites and sources, please post in this thread.

Preview of top SPs sorted by K9:
Kazmir 3.37 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 214 SO
Lincecum 3.28 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 128 SO (only 118 IP)
Liriano 3.47 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 87 SO (83 IP)
Gallardo 4.05 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 166 SO
Bedard 3.58 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 181 SO
Peavy 3.07 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 222 SO
Hamels 3.44 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 164 SO (162 IP)
Santana 3.30 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 219 SO
Myers 3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 135 SO (18 GS)
Buchholz 4.46 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 103 SO (107 IP)
Hill 3.82 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 177 SO
Billingsley 3.98 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 139 SO (147 IP)
DiceK 3.99 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 185 SO
Ollie 4.31 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 155 SO
Burnett 3.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 153 SO
C.Young 3.34 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 157 SO
-----------------------------------------------
Other notables:
Cain 3.49 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 175 SO
Felix 3.53 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 170 SO
Harang 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 192 SO
Smoltz 3.74 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 171 SO
McGowan 4.30 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 130 SO (10 G in relief?)
Sheets 3.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 112 SO (137 IP)
Greinke 4.35 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 101 SO (124 IP)
Verlander 3.81 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 153 SO
Shields 3.89 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 155 SO
Lackey 3.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 171 SO
Bonderman 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 151 SO
Haren 3.67 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 173 SO
Halladay 3.85 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 130 SO
Oswalt 3.64 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 152 SO
Hughes 4.24 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 90 SO (104 IP)
Sabathia 3.46 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 184 SO

Their projections look decent so far...
Last edited by Yoda on Wed Nov 21, 2007 12:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2008 Projections

Postby Legia13 » Wed Nov 21, 2007 12:38 pm

Hmm, are they assuming that Lincecum will get injured?
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Re: 2008 Projections

Postby Yoda » Wed Nov 21, 2007 12:39 pm

Legia13 wrote:Hmm, are they assuming that Lincecum will get injured?


Not sure. Probably because he didn't play a full 2007. They have him at 20 GS.
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Re: 2008 Projections

Postby rookies and cream » Wed Nov 21, 2007 1:09 pm

ZiPS projections are also (partially) available at http://bbtf.org/.
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Re: 2008 Projections

Postby Yoda » Wed Nov 21, 2007 1:14 pm

rookies and cream wrote:ZiPS projections are also (partially) available at http://bbtf.org/.


Yeah I was looking at those yesterday. I'm not sure when they'll have it completed but I like them as well. I am hoping to compile Baseball Prospectus, CHONE, Zips, Marcell and any other projections into one master list.
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Re: 2008 Projections

Postby Scooter1027 » Wed Nov 21, 2007 2:57 pm

Interesting projections. That one that stands out a bit to me (esp. as a Brewers fan) is that of Gallardo. It seems pessimistic to me, predicting 4.05/1.39. He threw 110 IP as a rookie and went 3.67/1.27, and that includes a start in Colorado where he was Yosted (2.2 IP, 11 ER, why was a 21 year old left in that long?). The WHIP seems too high for sure to me. I'm just a little surprised to see a regression like that predicted. I also think Billingsley will outperform that projection.
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Re: 2008 Projections

Postby rookies and cream » Wed Nov 21, 2007 3:20 pm

Scooter1027 wrote:Interesting projections. That one that stands out a bit to me (esp. as a Brewers fan) is that of Gallardo. It seems pessimistic to me, predicting 4.05/1.39. He threw 110 IP as a rookie and went 3.67/1.27, and that includes a start in Colorado where he was Yosted (2.2 IP, 11 ER, why was a 21 year old left in that long?). The WHIP seems too high for sure to me. I'm just a little surprised to see a regression like that predicted. I also think Billingsley will outperform that projection.


"Yosted"

lol
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Re: 2008 Projections

Postby mamerrif » Mon Dec 03, 2007 2:34 pm

is there any way to view the chone projections of both the hitters and pitchers if you dont have microsoft office? it will only open in an excel document, which i cannot open. any ideas? thanks
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Re: 2008 Projections

Postby hot4tx » Tue Dec 04, 2007 4:31 pm

I can just open the csv file like a txt file, then cut and paste the data into whatever spreadsheet I wanted.

One thing about the Chone predictions - the way he handles injury prone players is a little different than I think about it. He will give them much lower ABs and base the projections on their performance per at bat. It's not necessarily a "wrong" way to handle it, but if the player doesn't get injured then the projections are really low. That creates a lot of "sleepers" because even most injury prone players have more than a 50/50 chance to get to 500 ABs. That's a lot more likely than your younger players "breaking out" and out performing their projections by leaps and bounds.

I prefer to go ahead and give injury prone players 500 (or even 550 ABs if that's what they normally get) and project off of that. That way I can see their full season projections and then manually label them as injury prone and lower their value a bit due to that. In fact, I just blow the Chone projections up to that level and still use them as one of my sources.

Just personal preference on how you want to look at it.
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Re: 2008 Projections

Postby Bloody Sox » Tue Dec 04, 2007 4:41 pm

mamerrif wrote:is there any way to view the chone projections of both the hitters and pitchers if you dont have microsoft office? it will only open in an excel document, which i cannot open. any ideas? thanks

Just go to OpenOffice.org and get the free office suite that will open (and create) MS Office compatible documents.
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