Figured I'd start the thread for this guy, because he's going to have a lot of fantasy owners puzzled going into this year. So far he hasn't hit a single hitch in his recovery process, and is still expected to be available by spring training.
Where are you guys thinking he's going to get drafted? His upside is obviously humongous, his numbers as a rookie where pure dominance, but of course TJ can be an unforgiving surgery. Any thoughts on him, your approach to taking him and so on?
Last edited by TheA'sFatLeadoffMan on Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
I won't touch him until I have a couple SP already drafted. Its really hard saying right now though. I won't know for sure until I see what, if anything, he does in spring training.
With young pitchers like Liriano who is coming off a major injury/surgery, it is always better to wait a full year before paying for him. See how he does during rehab and in Spring Training, keep an eye on him if you are interested. However, based on everything I've seen and heard, he will likely be taken in the middle rounds which I think is too high because there are still viable players with good upside available. People forget that while he was dominant, he has yet to pitch a full season in MLB so there are way too many variables working against him. Will he be 100% at the start of the season? Will he be throwing as hard? Will he be as effective? Will he need to chance his mechanics to preserve his arm? Will he need to change the way he pitches to save his arm? Will he last the entire season without hurting himself again or wearing down? I could be completely wrong but for me, the risks are too high.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda wrote:With young pitchers like Liriano who is coming off a major injury/surgery, it is always better to wait a full year before paying for him. See how he does during rehab and in Spring Training, keep an eye on him if you are interested. However, based on everything I've seen and heard, he will likely be taken in the middle rounds which I think is too high because there are still viable players with good upside available. People forget that while he was dominant, he has yet to pitch a full season in MLB so there are way too many variables working against him. Will he be 100% at the start of the season? Will he be throwing as hard? Will he be as effective? Will he need to chance his mechanics to preserve his arm? Will he need to change the way he pitches to save his arm? Will he last the entire season without hurting himself again or wearing down? I could be completely wrong but for me, the risks are too high.
And also the fear with him getting injured again or wearing down late is that its going to effect the most important part of the season....either the stretch run in ROTO or the playoffs in H2H. You may have him for a couple months early but what about during "money" time.
Even if he stays heathy...they will undoubtedly be watching his innings like a hawk. They could shut him down late in the year with 150 innings....just when you would need him.
I believe LiveForever is correct and the Twins are planning to start him out of the pen. They'll likely either do that or have him get some work as a starter in Triple A. They're going to handle him with kid gloves like they do with all their young pitchers, and this is an even more extreme case considering he's coming off a major surgery. Once he gets back into the rotation, I could see him having success but not nearly the domination of '06, at least until he gets comfortable again. He'll probably get drafted too high, and I would think his innings are going to be limited in '08.
I'd take a wait and see approach with him. There's no sense in jumping the gun on him instead of picking up a proven starter that you're comfortable with.
What if you were able to have him as a keeper for next year and only lose your last round pick? That would be a pretty good low risk/high reward, no?
^Thanks for the sig Soty!^ "When times are good, be happy; but when times are bad, consider: God has made the one as well as the other..." Ecclesiastes 7:14 ΠKΦ
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by TheA'sFatLeadoffMan » Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:27 pm 
