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How legit are these surprises?

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How legit are these surprises?

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Fri Oct 05, 2007 8:36 am

here are some players who had great seasons (from yahoo's top 50), ending up ranked pretty high for their 07 seasons, despite their much lower O-rank. who are the flukes who are the real deal? some of these players will probably not repeat their 07 seasons, but any of them look like they can match it or even surpass it?

name 07 Y! rank O-rank

brandon phillips (13, 145)
carlos pena (14, 163)
eric byrnes (19, 171)
curtis granderson (24, 196)
nick markakis (29, 116)
aaron rowand (39, 251)
mike lowell (42, 237)
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Re: How legit are these surprises?

Postby Steve-o » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:56 am

BitterDodgerFan wrote:name 07 Y! rank O-rank

brandon phillips (13, 145) 26
carlos pena (14, 163) 29
eric byrnes (19, 171) 31
curtis granderson (24, 196) 26
nick markakis (29, 116) 24
aaron rowand (39, 251) 30
mike lowell (42, 237) 33


I think you forgot the biggest factor: age. I added it in for you. I think the guys under 30 are much more likely to repeat good seasons then the guys over 30. I think Mike Lowell could have another good season if he stays in that park, but he is a free agent this year. Pena is an enigma and I don't trust him one bit.
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Re: How legit are these surprises?

Postby Yoda » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:54 am

If I were a betting man, then I would say in this order: Phillips, Markakis, Granderson.
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Re: How legit are these surprises?

Postby J35J » Fri Oct 05, 2007 12:08 pm

Steve-o wrote:
BitterDodgerFan wrote:name 07 Y! rank O-rank

brandon phillips (13, 145) 26
carlos pena (14, 163) 29
eric byrnes (19, 171) 31
curtis granderson (24, 196) 26
nick markakis (29, 116) 24
aaron rowand (39, 251) 30
mike lowell (42, 237) 33


I think you forgot the biggest factor: age. I added it in for you. I think the guys under 30 are much more likely to repeat good seasons then the guys over 30. I think Mike Lowell could have another good season if he stays in that park, but he is a free agent this year. Pena is an enigma and I don't trust him one bit.


You can move Pena up to 30yrs old, Byrnes up to 32, Granderson up to 27, and Lowell to 34. Since they will be that age for all or most of the '08 season. Anyway, thats just nitpicky but I'm with Yoda on the order of the top 3
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Re: How legit are these surprises?

Postby RotoCowboy » Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:25 pm

Yoda wrote:If I were a betting man, then I would say in this order: Phillips, Markakis, Granderson.


I agree that these 3 are the most likely to have repeat (or better) seasons. I'd wouldn't be at all surprised it Markakis or Granderson actually improved in 2008. Phillips was so good that I doubt he improves, but I could see him coming close to matching his 2007 numbers.

I don't think any of the others are true abberations, but I would be very surprised if any of them matched their 2007 success in 2008. I'd guess that Pena regresses the most, but still puts up a .270 or so average and 35 or so homers.
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Re: How legit are these surprises?

Postby Snakes Gould » Fri Oct 05, 2007 6:35 pm

i like granderson over markakis but i agree those 3 are the best bets.
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Re: How legit are these surprises?

Postby Scooter1027 » Sat Oct 06, 2007 2:18 am

For me, Markakis is tops, I think he's going to be a serious player. Granderson looks to be quite good as well. Phillips I had never been sold on but he definitely surprised me and proved me wrong this year. However, I don't think there's a whole lot of room to get too much better, I think he's just about maxed out. All the others -- pass. They'll likely get taken higher than I'd prefer to draft them.
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Re: How legit are these surprises?

Postby Yoda » Sat Oct 06, 2007 11:05 am

Scooter1027 wrote:For me, Markakis is tops, I think he's going to be a serious player. Granderson looks to be quite good as well. Phillips I had never been sold on but he definitely surprised me and proved me wrong this year. However, I don't think there's a whole lot of room to get too much better, I think he's just about maxed out. All the others -- pass. They'll likely get taken higher than I'd prefer to draft them.


I can understand your pessimism on Phillips as he was a bust for a few years after being a top 5 prospect for a few years in Montreal/Cleveland. However, the switch to 2B from SS seems to really have stunted his growth at the time and he was in a serious rut but sometimes all a player needs in order to thrive is a change of scenery and opportunity.

Still, Phillips is in his peak years and might not grow but there are not too many 30-30 players especially at 2B. I think he proved this year that he is no fluke and he certainly possesses the talent.
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Re: How legit are these surprises?

Postby Scooter1027 » Sat Oct 06, 2007 12:52 pm

Yoda wrote:
Scooter1027 wrote:For me, Markakis is tops, I think he's going to be a serious player. Granderson looks to be quite good as well. Phillips I had never been sold on but he definitely surprised me and proved me wrong this year. However, I don't think there's a whole lot of room to get too much better, I think he's just about maxed out. All the others -- pass. They'll likely get taken higher than I'd prefer to draft them.


I can understand your pessimism on Phillips as he was a bust for a few years after being a top 5 prospect for a few years in Montreal/Cleveland. However, the switch to 2B from SS seems to really have stunted his growth at the time and he was in a serious rut but sometimes all a player needs in order to thrive is a change of scenery and opportunity.

Still, Phillips is in his peak years and might not grow but there are not too many 30-30 players especially at 2B. I think he proved this year that he is no fluke and he certainly possesses the talent.


I agree with you, I believe in Phillips finally, it just took me awhile. I'm only saying I don't think he'll get too much better, but that's not an insult, as his current numbers are excellent for a 2B. I would take all 3 of Markakis, Granderson, and Phillips on my team next year -- I'd definitely have a good shot at taking SB with that crew while not sacrificing much power.
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Re: How legit are these surprises?

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Sat Oct 06, 2007 12:54 pm

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