Who would you rather draft/have in a keeper league?
2007 Nick Markakis: .300 avg, 23 HR, 112 RBI, 97 runs, 18 SB - 23 years old; 195 pounds
2007 Carlos Lee: .303 avg, 32 HR, 115 RBI, 93 runs, 10 SB - 31 years old; 250 pounds
I think these guys could go in the same round or at least somewhat close to each other in redrafts next year and I'm curious as to the general consensus of their keeper value. For 2008 in redrafts I would assume Lee is probably best but do you think Markakis still has more potential in future years? Lee has pretty much topped out as far as I can tell.
Bottom line: you have a pick in the inaugural year of a keeper/dynasty, you need an OF, and Markakis and Lee are the best choices left on the board. Who are you taking and why?
I'm still taking El Caballo at this point. I'll probably be in the minority, but Carlos has plenty of years of prime production left and his age is not really a factor in my decision. I really like Markakis, and he's had a good second year, but Carlos is as proven as they come, and he still gets the nod on my board.
Lee is only 31 so the value difference in keeper to non-keeper is small. Markakis obviously has more upside but some of his numbers against lefties this season are a concern (OBP.318) and so for this reason I still see him a few rounds behind Lee in either format for 2008.
I'd take Carlos Lee for next year and perhaps in a 3-year time frame. The guy's a proven machine and hitting at the heart of the Astros' hit-or-miss offense didn't deter him completely. If Berkman puts on a strong season from start to finish coupled with improvements from Pence, Lee's stat line should bump up a little more.
As for Markakis, he's been noted as a hitter with the kind of vaunted upside Jeremy Hermida possesses. He might wind up like a Bobby Abreu in his prime but could probably use to learn to take a few more walks.
For next year, I would take Lee. I think Markakis can be overall better beyond 2008, but he only had one full year on his resume. Let's see what he does next year. I think Markakis can be consistent throughout, plus he gives you some SB too, but let me see what he does next year.
I'd take Carlos Lee, the guy just handles his business year in and year out while other studs like Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman are superior but inconsistent talents. Since 2003, Lee has been a lock for .290/30 HRs/100 RBIs and he even throws in a dozen steals. Markakis is a nice player but I'd still prefer Lee at this point.