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The next Ichiro...

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Re: The next Ichiro...

Postby bigken117 » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:21 pm

Yoda wrote: Logic tells me that a guy who can't hit double digit HRs in the minors won't do the same in the big leagues but maybe that's just me. He could of course maybe in his prime but it's doubtful looking at his history.


James Loney's career high in HR in the minors is 11. He had 1 HR in 233 AAA AB this season. Not that impressive. Yet scouts always thought he could hit 20+ as a big leaguer. He's got 9 in LA in half a season's worth of AB. It's not impossible. Most scouts know what they're talking about.

Ellsbury will have multiple seasons with double digit home runs, and even though he most likely won't ever hit 20, folks said the same about Damon. He's only 23, it's a little early to say he won't.

And as much as I'd love to buy the Ichiro (or Beltran) comparison, I don't see it. I'd love to see Ellsbury let loose on the bases to steal 40+, but I think he stays more with a healthy Ortiz and Manny. Maybe 30 SB at the most. It's just not the Sox' way. I hope I'm wrong though. I do think he does get .300 and I'd probably take the over on the RBI (Lugo has 44 in 352 leadoff AB, extrapolate that with the huge difference in skill...)
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Re: The next Ichiro...

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Mon Sep 24, 2007 10:35 pm

yea as you get older and develop, i would assume your power would increase as well.
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Re: The next Ichiro...

Postby Yoda » Tue Sep 25, 2007 11:53 am

bigken117 wrote:
Yoda wrote: Logic tells me that a guy who can't hit double digit HRs in the minors won't do the same in the big leagues but maybe that's just me. He could of course maybe in his prime but it's doubtful looking at his history.


James Loney's career high in HR in the minors is 11. He had 1 HR in 233 AAA AB this season. Not that impressive. Yet scouts always thought he could hit 20+ as a big leaguer. He's got 9 in LA in half a season's worth of AB. It's not impossible. Most scouts know what they're talking about.

Ellsbury will have multiple seasons with double digit home runs, and even though he most likely won't ever hit 20, folks said the same about Damon. He's only 23, it's a little early to say he won't.

And as much as I'd love to buy the Ichiro (or Beltran) comparison, I don't see it. I'd love to see Ellsbury let loose on the bases to steal 40+, but I think he stays more with a healthy Ortiz and Manny. Maybe 30 SB at the most. It's just not the Sox' way. I hope I'm wrong though. I do think he does get .300 and I'd probably take the over on the RBI (Lugo has 44 in 352 leadoff AB, extrapolate that with the huge difference in skill...)


I said that it's doubtful not that he won't hit double digits. Even looking at his XBH totals in college, MiLB, it doesn't look like he can or will hit for much power.

Loney is a bit different also since he is not really a slap hitter.
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Re: The next Ichiro...

Postby stumpak » Tue Sep 25, 2007 2:07 pm

It is a little silly to compare Ellsbury to Ichiro. Frankly, I have about had it with overhyped Yankee and Red Sox prospects. Yes Ellsbury will probably develop into a very good MLB player and amy even be a major start, but to compare him to a guy who is perhaps the best hitter in baseball (depending on how you define this) after 10 weeks of service ridiculous. For fantasy purposes I avoid all Red Sox and Yankee prospects unless I happen to luck into owning them. They are just too overvalued by fantasy owners because of the media markets they play in and you can find guys with similar potential on other teams for pennies on the dollar. If I owned Ellsbury in a keeper format I would trade him.

You could probably lump the Mets into this category as well.
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Re: The next Ichiro...

Postby J35J » Tue Sep 25, 2007 2:28 pm

stumpak wrote:It is a little silly to compare Ellsbury to Ichiro. Frankly, I have about had it with overhyped Yankee and Red Sox prospects. Yes Ellsbury will probably develop into a very good MLB player and amy even be a major start, but to compare him to a guy who is perhaps the best hitter in baseball (depending on how you define this) after 10 weeks of service ridiculous. For fantasy purposes I avoid all Red Sox and Yankee prospects unless I happen to luck into owning them. They are just too overvalued by fantasy owners because of the media markets they play in and you can find guys with similar potential on other teams for pennies on the dollar. If I owned Ellsbury in a keeper format I would trade him.

You could probably lump the Mets into this category as well.


I generally agree with you but not in this case. I haven't really heard a thing about Ellsbury very much...which is kinda why I brought it up. I'm definately not a BoSox/Yankee "overhyper" by any means. My thread title may be a bit over the top, I admit, but I personaly don't see alot of difference between the two. While the .30 or so points difference in the avg is a decent margin I don't see it quite the same as I would if we were comparing a .270 hitter and a .300 hitter (.30 difference) But if Boston doesn't plan to run him like BigKen mentioned above then this comparison goes down the drain.

With all that said I likely won't own either as I rarely get players who are primarily speed guys so don't take this as I'm all goo goo over the guy, not at all! I'm just after discussion.

My initial thoughts, depending on if Ellsbury would run often.

Avg = goes in Ichiros favor by .30pts or so (though this varies so much, who knows?)
HR = wash
RBI = wash
Runs = Slight edge (5-10 more) based on better offense
SB = I gave Ellsbury 5-10 more without knowing how much they would run him but he has the speed to steal 40+ on a regular basis. If it looks like Boston won't run him that much then, like I said, this comparison doesn't look as good.

But to me, like I said, the .30pts difference isn't quite the dominating factor when the other guy is still a .300 hitter. This is all "potential" and just predictions on what Ellsbury "may" become but its fun to look at and when you can get Ellsbury 4-5 rounds later in the draft and get very similar production save your early round picks on the "heavy" hitters.

Anyway, lighten up a bit stumpak. I'm just diggin up conversation as these boards are really slowing down! :-)
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Re: The next Ichiro...

Postby stumpak » Tue Sep 25, 2007 9:29 pm

Sorry, did not mean to be a jerk. But I think you are making a big assumption to say that Ellsbury will be a .300 hitter next year. if it was an even/under, I would take the under with confidence.
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Re: The next Ichiro...

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:38 pm

Watching Ellsbury handle a bat, he has great plate discipline. Someone on this thread said that he'd struggle to hit .275 against lefties and they need more than a 23 AB sample to show what he can do - have you ever seen him swing the bat? He has a compact swing that looks no different against lefties or righties and he can cover the entire plate. Even if he were to struggle to hit .275 against lefties, he'd only need to hit about .310 against righties to hit .300 overall - that is VERY attainable as soon as next year. Pedroia has similar plate coverage skills (but a much uglier swing) and he's hitting .315 as a rookie - I'd have a similar forecast for Ellsbury next year.

With his compact swing, I can't see Ellsbury developing much power but 15 HR seasons are a very reasonable forecast in a couple of years, given that his home park is Fenway. I'd see probably only about 8-10 HRs next year (ala Lugo and Crisp... and hey, what do you know - Ichiro).

As for steals, Ichiro has averaged less than 40 steals per season with Seattle. Why can't Ellsbury do that? He certainly has the speed (scoring from second on a passed ball a few weeks back, stealing second on a pitchout the other night) and base-stealing ability (49-56 in steals this year between Boston and AAA). Obviously, Boston has never been a big base-stealing organization, but they've shown this year that they will adapt to their player's skillset - Lugo has 30 steals this year and Coco has 27, and Sox leadoff hitters as a whole have stolen 32 bags this year. Ellsbury will almost certainly leadoff for the Sox next year hitting in front of Pedroia so my guess is that he'll steal 30-35 bases with ease and more likely in the 40-45 range with an upside for 50.

As to the guy who is sick of the overhyped Red Sox prospects... um - what? Which prospect has been overhyped? I'd say that Youkilis, Pedroia, Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury (and let's not forget guys like Hanley Ramirez who were traded away) have thus far performed almost exactly to expectations. Maybe these players are overvalued in big keeper/dynasty league and that is what you are referring to - if so, then I can't really argue your point.

In redrafts next year, I think getting a guy like Ellsbury in the middle rounds will be a pretty good value compared to Ichiro in the second round. Ichiro is likely to hit .335 to Ellsbury's .315, but everything else (HRs, RBIs, runs, steals) will be about even or slightly in Ellsbury's favor.
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Re: The next Ichiro...

Postby Yoda » Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:49 pm

Bloody Sox wrote:Watching Ellsbury handle a bat, he has great plate discipline. Someone on this thread said that he'd struggle to hit .275 against lefties and they need more than a 23 AB sample to show what he can do - have you ever seen him swing the bat? He has a compact swing that looks no different against lefties or righties and he can cover the entire plate. Even if he were to struggle to hit .275 against lefties, he'd only need to hit about .310 against righties to hit .300 overall - that is VERY attainable as soon as next year. Pedroia has similar plate coverage skills (but a much uglier swing) and he's hitting .315 as a rookie - I'd have a similar forecast for Ellsbury next year.

With his compact swing, I can't see Ellsbury developing much power but 15 HR seasons are a very reasonable forecast in a couple of years, given that his home park is Fenway. I'd see probably only about 8-10 HRs next year (ala Lugo and Crisp... and hey, what do you know - Ichiro).

As for steals, Ichiro has averaged less than 40 steals per season with Seattle. Why can't Ellsbury do that? He certainly has the speed (scoring from second on a passed ball a few weeks back, stealing second on a pitchout the other night) and base-stealing ability (49-56 in steals this year between Boston and AAA). Obviously, Boston has never been a big base-stealing organization, but they've shown this year that they will adapt to their player's skillset - Lugo has 30 steals this year and Coco has 27, and Sox leadoff hitters as a whole have stolen 32 bags this year. Ellsbury will almost certainly leadoff for the Sox next year hitting in front of Pedroia so my guess is that he'll steal 30-35 bases with ease and more likely in the 40-45 range with an upside for 50.

As to the guy who is sick of the overhyped Red Sox prospects... um - what? Which prospect has been overhyped? I'd say that Youkilis, Pedroia, Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury (and let's not forget guys like Hanley Ramirez who were traded away) have thus far performed almost exactly to expectations. Maybe these players are overvalued in big keeper/dynasty league and that is what you are referring to - if so, then I can't really argue your point.

In redrafts next year, I think getting a guy like Ellsbury in the middle rounds will be a pretty good value compared to Ichiro in the second round. Ichiro is likely to hit .335 to Ellsbury's .315, but everything else (HRs, RBIs, runs, steals) will be about even or slightly in Ellsbury's favor.


You forgot Papelbon.. In any case, if you guys are looking at Ellsbury in the middle rounds then he is way overrated already (not that he hasn't been with Ichiro comparisons). He still has a lot to prove IMO and there is no way I'm wasting anywhere near a mid round pick on a slap hitter with limited potential.
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Re: The next Ichiro...

Postby quitesanemax » Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:32 pm

I don't know who he should be compared to... too early in his career to say anyway. But I will say I love watching the kid play. For now, I am with Bwanna on this one. I just hope he keeps red hot til the end of the season (and into the playoffs, of course)... but with Manny back in the lineup, you should probably keep a close eye on that, Bwanna... it seems like a no-brainer to me. He's been hot, keep him in there. But Crisp was only out yesterday due to a sickness. When he comes back from that sickness, are they planning on keeping him in the lineup?
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Re: The next Ichiro...

Postby ReginaldVelJohnson » Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:41 pm

I bet he can't throw a 95 MPH fastball like Ichiro.
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