Pujols Done for the Season?

[Boyakasha]

Per Rotoworld:

Albert Pujols fears his strained left calf could cost him the rest of the season.
The Cardinals are done anyway, so there's no reason for him to push it. Besides, it's not like it's the only leg problem he's had. "I can't make that decision right now, it will be up to the trainers. ... But as of right now, no [I don't think I could play]," Pujols said. "Anything's possible, I guess. If I feel like I can play, I'll play."

Ouch, that's going to hurt my chances in the finals a bit

[Morel Orel]

Mine too...great timing Poo-holes. It just so happens I'm up against the offensive juggernaut named Matt Holliday this week

[interchange]

Yahoo and their darned can't cut list. Am I stuck with him now?

[vladrules]

Yahoo and their darned can't cut list. Am I stuck with him now?

Well, Yahoo decided they had time so they removed Pujols off their cut list. Wondering if I should cut him. He's still pinch hitting and could still get 4 more RBI's for 100. I doubt he gets 7 more R to keep his streak of 7 straight seasons with 100 R, 30 HR, 100 RBI so I doubt see the point in keeping. However, he could get 7 HR in the last couple of games. The only year I own Pujols and it's his worst year. Go figure!

For some reason, I wanted to take ARod with the first pick since he plays for NYY and he was going to be a FA next year. Just had a feeling and there were plenty of 1B options later on (Prince, Berkman, Hafner, Teix, etc). Should have went with my gut. Shucks. At least, I got Holliday.

[Scout]

Looks like Pujols started tonight. Safe to get him back into the starting lineup? I think I have to, just because the chance of a night of Pujols > a sure replacement player.

[interchange]

I dunno. I dropped him for Cust and I'm not sure I'm going to regret it.

[The Loveable Losers]

Looks like Pujols started tonight. Safe to get him back into the starting lineup? I think I have to, just because the chance of a night of Pujols > a sure replacement player.

I'm not sure if I agree with this. Here's what you can expect in a typical evening from Pujols:
1.15/3.56, 0.21hr, 0.62runs, 0.66rbi, 0.01sb

Here's a guy likely available as a replacement for people in non-NL only leagues, Casey Kotchman:
0.97/3.27, 0.08hr, 0.46runs, 0.50rbi, 0.02sb

All I did to get these numbers is divide their counting stats (h, ab, hr, runs, rbi, sb) by their total games played. From this point here it's relatively simple to find out if a chance at a night of Pujols is better than your sure replacement player. Just multiply Pujols by the percentage of the game you think he'll average out to playing. Sometimes he might not play...sometimes he'll get pulled 60-70% into the game for a pinch runner (like he did last night)...and sometimes he'll play the entire game. Let's be generous and give him 75% of the game and see what happens.

Pujols at 75%:
0.87/2.67, 0.16hr, 0.47runs, 0.50rbi, 0.00sb

So basically, Pujols is going to contribute less or about the same hits, runs, rbi, and sb as Casey Kotchman (who might not even be your best replacement player for Pujols) even at a 75% chance of playing an entire game. Given that he's also physically limited regardless of whether he plays or not and I think this is a clear case where you start a replacement player if you have to make your choice ahead of time.

What's not as clear is what to do if you have to drop Pujols to pick up the replacement player. I don't envy people in that situation but at this point I'd say you'd have to drop Pujols in a redraft league. There aren't enough games remaining in the season for him to come back and make an impact a reliable portion of the time.

In my situation I have both Pujols and Kotchman on my roster so it's pretty easy. A limited Pujols that's definitely starting is better than Kotchman in my book (especially since I need hr's) so I just have to wait and see if Pujols starts or not and adjust my lineup accordingly.

[AmericanShipbuilding]

You know, TLL, that's an interesting assessment of the numbers, but looking at much smaller sample sizes (which, when you have six days left in a championship week, may not actually be the worst way to go), there's a debate to be made that even a pinch-hitting-only Pujols is of greater value than a replacement. E.g., my backup 1b is Adam LaRoche. Over the last seven days, these are the two players' respective numbers:

LaRoche: 5/18, 2 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .278 avg.

Pujols: 2/5 0 R, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .400 avg.

Clearly, in this case, you'd take Pujols' numbers over LaRoche's (though both provided minimal actual value), even though Pujols got only 5 ABs in 7 games and LaRoche is an everyday cleanup hitter. But you have to assume that any pinch-hit ABs given to Pujols will be run-producing opps, and he obviously flourishes in such situations. And if he gets 3 ABs a game, he should be MUCH more valuable than LaRoche. To that end, look at the same two players' last 15 games:

LaRoche: 13/41, 5 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .317 avg.

Pujols: 12/36, 5 R, 1 HR, 10 RBI, .333 avg.

Now, you could argue that LaRoche is worse than any other replacement 1b you'll find on the wire this time of year, but his numbers to date (and especially his second-half numbers) belie that assertion. What's more, at least he's guaranteed ABs -- Kotchman didn't start in two of the Angels' last six games, which makes him a dubious bet, too. I'm not disputing your calculations, just saying that as long as Pujols is available to play, you can't bet against him.

[OREO fan]

Anybody have any idea if he is playing tonight, 9/25???

[The Loveable Losers]

You know, TLL, that's an interesting assessment of the numbers, but looking at much smaller sample sizes (which, when you have six days left in a championship week, may not actually be the worst way to go), there's a debate to be made that even a pinch-hitting-only Pujols is of greater value than a replacement. E.g., my backup 1b is Adam LaRoche. Over the last seven days, these are the two players' respective numbers:

LaRoche: 5/18, 2 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .278 avg.

Pujols: 2/5 0 R, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .400 avg.

Clearly, in this case, you'd take Pujols' numbers over LaRoche's (though both provided minimal actual value), even though Pujols got only 5 ABs in 7 games and LaRoche is an everyday cleanup hitter. But you have to assume that any pinch-hit ABs given to Pujols will be run-producing opps, and he obviously flourishes in such situations. And if he gets 3 ABs a game, he should be MUCH more valuable than LaRoche. To that end, look at the same two players' last 15 games:

LaRoche: 13/41, 5 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .317 avg.

Pujols: 12/36, 5 R, 1 HR, 10 RBI, .333 avg.

Now, you could argue that LaRoche is worse than any other replacement 1b you'll find on the wire this time of year, but his numbers to date (and especially his second-half numbers) belie that assertion. What's more, at least he's guaranteed ABs -- Kotchman didn't start in two of the Angels' last six games, which makes him a dubious bet, too. I'm not disputing your calculations, just saying that as long as Pujols is available to play, you can't bet against him.

I'd rather take the full-season numbers and average them out. I can see the argument for the 'who's hot' approach but I've never liked trying to time a person's hot and cold streaks. You end up missing them as often as you hit them.