Purple Haze wrote:If you don't get one of the top 5 SP's they are a crap shoot as well... in an average 12 team league if every owner has 5 SP's that is 60 SP's and there is a lot more than 60 sp's in all of MLB that can get you good stats, if you pick and choose situations carefully... Closers are important to help keep innings down... 4 good closers will net you over 200+ inngs 200+K's (If you choose the right ones) a 3.50 ERA (Get Smoltz/Gagne/Wagner/Foulke to hold ERA down) 1.25 whip (Same concept as ERA) 120+ saves and at least 10 wins (Maybe 15-20) Those numbers are as good as a top 5 SP... This is my startegy.. I never worry about SP's, unless they slip a lot farther than they are supposed to, but I never reach for a SP.. Hitters are a lot more consistant (The top hitters) Than SP's are... This is all my humble opinion, but its worked for several years, and helped me win many baseball leagues (But maybe I was just playing with chumps) I'm not telling anyone to use this startegy..(Please don't ) Just my humble opinion on this topic, and how I handle it..
Peace and Chickengrease!
I find it a little hard to agree with your assertion. Pitchers aren't really a crapshoot as much as rps are. It's so hard to guage which closers will get the most saves. Sure, gagne or wagner seem like sure bets, but are you saying you think that the top 25 closers are comparible to the top 25 SP's. I don't think gagne, smoltz, and wagner even combined for 10 wins last season. Starters are just more reliable and more available. Just think 4 good or great SP (prior, zambrano, piniero, beckett) and you can expect about 70 wins sub 3.30 era sub 1.20 whip and 770 k's. And it's feasible to land them as opposed to 4 good or great rps. Ok, I understand that's it's probably because you're in a league of chumps, but you must sacriface something to draft 4-5 closers in a 12 team league .
First of all I don't need you to agree with me, for it to work...
2nd...A league of chumps? Your not in my league
3rd...The total at the end of the year is all that matters in Roto...
My startegy works, because people like you are taking Barry Zito in the second round praying his recent demise isn't a trend.. And I grab the best offensive player on the board, and clean up with a Joel Pineiro after the 8th round...And Joel will outperform Barry.. BAM BABY.. SCHOOL IS OUT and take 3-4 closers in the later rounds...
PS. Pineiro and Zambrano can be taken after the 8th rounds...So to place them with Prior is ignorant (IMHO)
bronxxbomber wrote:I find it a little hard to agree with your assertion. Pitchers aren't really a crapshoot as much as rps are. It's so hard to guage which closers will get the most saves. Sure, gagne or wagner seem like sure bets, but are you saying you think that the top 25 closers are comparible to the top 25 SP's.
I would agree with the point that Roto rules! When playing H2H, you use too many strategies that have no correlation to real bball.
I usually draft a upper tier closer in the 5-6 round...not a top closer, but a good one and then get a couple of lower level closers later on..and of course snatch up any new closers that come along during the season...Like was posted earlier, someone is always in need of saves and if I end up with more than 3 legite closers I deal oneto boost pitching or offense. I dont get the guys who spend an early pick on stud closers either...but it just leaves one more blue chipper for me!
I would rather have a lower tier closer than a lower tier starter in my lineup. I dont think you can get 6-7 quality starters and have a good ERA/WHIP. A borderline SP will still get lit up by even bad teams
What we need is a way to quanticize how much a pitcher helps your ERA based on how many innings he pitches. I posted a formula that will do the same thing for BA, a couple months ago, and it can be adapted easily to ERA.
The idea is, instead of using BA or ERA or WHIP as a category for picking your 5x5 teams, you replace the category with BA Imp, ERA Imp, and WHIP Imp. To calculate, for example, ERA Imp, use the following formula:
ERA Imp = IP * (ERA - MeanERA) / ((N -1) * MeanIP + IP)
where N is the number of pitchers on your pitching staff. I used N = 7.
I calculated, using only the top 100 pitchers (and thus, the meanERA and meanIP of the top 100 pitchers), and here are the top 25 sorted by ERA Imp (the top 25 for WHIP Imp are different, but similar):
ERA Imp WHIP Imp
P.Martinez -0.181 -0.025 SP
J.Schmidt -0.177 -0.043 SP
K.Brown -0.171 -0.010 SP
E.Gagne -0.166 -0.039 RP
M.Prior -0.164 -0.017 SP
J.Smoltz -0.137 -0.020 RP
GMota -0.134 -0.020 RP
D.Marte -0.132 -0.011 RP
R.Cormier -0.131 -0.021 RP
S.Hasegawa -0.130 -0.007 RP
T.Hudson -0.129 -0.025 SP
B.Wagner -0.127 -0.026 RP
B.Donnelly -0.124 -0.009 SP
M.Rivera -0.113 -0.013 RP
L.Hawkins -0.109 -0.008 RP
K.Foulke -0.103 -0.025 RP
R.Soriano -0.093 -0.021 RP
E.Loaiza -0.085 -0.016 SP
B.Webb -0.080 -0.007 SP
O.Dotel -0.071 -0.018 RP
S.Shields -0.066 -0.001 RP
C.Schilling -0.059 -0.021 SP
H.Nomo -0.048 +0.010 SP
J.Borowski -0.047 -0.010 RP
As you can see, the list is pretty evenly split up between starting and relief pitchers (I labelled them pretty quick, so one or two might be incorrect as to SP or RP designation). And most of the relievers above are actually closers.
So, it's not reasonable to say that closers are 1 category players or that they don't effect your ERA or WHIP much. And remember, you can keep your SP's out of games where they'll be shelled, but since it reduces both their ERA and their IP, the difference is not going to be all that huge.
Yeah, basically the fact that the top relievers only face like 3 batters a game makes it easier for them to keep their ERA's down, and their extremely low ERA's makes up for the fact that they're not pitching as many innings.
If a starter finished the year with a 1.00 ERA, he would obviously be much better than any reliever, but that just doesn't happen any more.