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Postby Purple Haze » Thu Feb 12, 2004 8:33 pm

bronxxbomber wrote:
Purple Haze wrote:If you don't get one of the top 5 SP's they are a crap shoot as well... in an average 12 team league if every owner has 5 SP's that is 60 SP's and there is a lot more than 60 sp's in all of MLB that can get you good stats, if you pick and choose situations carefully... Closers are important to help keep innings down... 4 good closers will net you over 200+ inngs 200+K's (If you choose the right ones) a 3.50 ERA (Get Smoltz/Gagne/Wagner/Foulke to hold ERA down) 1.25 whip (Same concept as ERA) 120+ saves and at least 10 wins (Maybe 15-20) Those numbers are as good as a top 5 SP... This is my startegy.. I never worry about SP's, unless they slip a lot farther than they are supposed to, but I never reach for a SP.. Hitters are a lot more consistant (The top hitters) Than SP's are... This is all my humble opinion, but its worked for several years, and helped me win many baseball leagues (But maybe I was just playing with chumps) I'm not telling anyone to use this startegy..(Please don't ;-7 ) Just my humble opinion on this topic, and how I handle it..

Peace and Chickengrease! :-° :-° :-°


I find it a little hard to agree with your assertion. Pitchers aren't really a crapshoot as much as rps are. It's so hard to guage which closers will get the most saves. Sure, gagne or wagner seem like sure bets, but are you saying you think that the top 25 closers are comparible to the top 25 SP's. I don't think gagne, smoltz, and wagner even combined for 10 wins last season. Starters are just more reliable and more available. Just think 4 good or great SP (prior, zambrano, piniero, beckett) and you can expect about 70 wins sub 3.30 era sub 1.20 whip and 770 k's. And it's feasible to land them as opposed to 4 good or great rps. Ok, I understand that's it's probably because you're in a league of chumps, but you must sacriface something to draft 4-5 closers in a 12 team league :~(.


First of all I don't need you to agree with me, for it to work...

2nd...A league of chumps? Your not in my league :-°

3rd...The total at the end of the year is all that matters in Roto...

My startegy works, because people like you are taking Barry Zito in the second round praying his recent demise isn't a trend.. And I grab the best offensive player on the board, and clean up with a Joel Pineiro after the 8th round...And Joel will outperform Barry.. BAM BABY.. SCHOOL IS OUT :-° and take 3-4 closers in the later rounds...

PS. Pineiro and Zambrano can be taken after the 8th rounds...So to place them with Prior is ignorant (IMHO) :-?
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Postby colour wolf » Thu Feb 12, 2004 8:33 pm

bronxxbomber wrote:I find it a little hard to agree with your assertion. Pitchers aren't really a crapshoot as much as rps are. It's so hard to guage which closers will get the most saves. Sure, gagne or wagner seem like sure bets, but are you saying you think that the top 25 closers are comparible to the top 25 SP's.


Wins

2002 NL Top 10

Johnson-ARI 24
Schilling-ARI 23
Oswalt-HOU 19
Glavine-ATL 18
Millwood-ATL 18
Morris-STL 17
Jennings-COL 16
Maddux-ATL 16
Nomo-LAD 16
Haynes-CIN 15
Miller-HOU 15
Perez-LAD 15

2003 NL Top 10

Ortiz-ATL 21
Prior-CHC 18
Williams-STL 18
Schmidt-SFG 17
Maddux-ATL 16
Nomo-LAD 16
Trachsel-NYM 16
Wolf-PHI 16
Hernandez-MON 15
Leiter-NYM 15
Robertson-HOU 15

Maddux and Nomo are the only two repeats on this list.

ERA

2002 NL Top 10

Johnson-ARI 2.32
Maddux-ATL 2.62
Glavine-ATL 2.96
Perez-LAD 3.00
Oswalt-HOU 3.01
Dessens-CIN 3.03
Ohka-MON 3.18
Wolf-PHI 3.20
Rueter-SFG 3.23
Schilling-ARI 3.23


2003 NL Top 10

Schmidt-SFG 2.34
Brown-LAD 2.39
Prior-CHC 2.43
Webb-ARI 2.84
Schilling-ARI 2.95
Nomo-LAD 3.09
Zambrano-CHC 3.11
Wood-CHC 3.20
Hernandez-MON 3.20
Vazquez-MON 3.24

Schilling is the only name on both lists.

RATIO

2002 NL Top 10

Schilling-ARI 8.71
Perez-LAD 8.91
Johnson-ARI 9.28
Wolf-PHI 10.04
Millwood-ATL 10.41
Oswalt-HOU 10.70
Burnett-FLA 10.70
Schmidt-SFG 10.73
Maddux-ATL 10.79
Clement-CHC 10.8

2003 NL Top 10

Schmidt-SFG 8.58
Schilling-ARI 9.43
Prior-CHC 9.92
Vazquez-MON 9.95
Brown-LAD 10.24
Webb-ARI 10.36
Morris-STL 10.60
Maddux-ATL 10.64
Wood-CHC 10.75
Hernandez-MON 10.88

This one's a little better. Schmidt, Schilling, Maddux are on both lists.

Saves

2002 NL Top 10

Smoltz-ATL 55
Gagne-LAD 52
Williams-PIT 46
Mesa-PHI 45
Nen-SFG 43
Jimenez-COL 41
Hoffman-SDP 38
Kim-ARI 36
Wagner-HOU 35
Benitez-NYM 33

2003 NL Top 10

Gagne-LAD 55
Smoltz-ATL 45
Wagner-HOU 44
Worrell-SFG 38
Biddle-MON 34
Borowski-CHC 33
Mantei-ARI 29
Looper-FLA 28
Williams-TOT 28
Mesa-PHI 24

Gagne, Smoltz, Wagner, Williams, and Mesa all make the top 10 both years, in what was the most unpredictable year for closers in a very long time.

Not that I'm saying that you should try for 4 closers, but relievers are MUCH more consistent year-to-year than even the best starters.
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Postby Freebird27 » Thu Feb 12, 2004 8:57 pm

I would agree with the point that Roto rules! When playing H2H, you use too many strategies that have no correlation to real bball.

I usually draft a upper tier closer in the 5-6 round...not a top closer, but a good one and then get a couple of lower level closers later on..and of course snatch up any new closers that come along during the season...Like was posted earlier, someone is always in need of saves and if I end up with more than 3 legite closers I deal oneto boost pitching or offense. I dont get the guys who spend an early pick on stud closers either...but it just leaves one more blue chipper for me!

I would rather have a lower tier closer than a lower tier starter in my lineup. I dont think you can get 6-7 quality starters and have a good ERA/WHIP. A borderline SP will still get lit up by even bad teams
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 12, 2004 9:53 pm

If taking closers early works for you, great.

Im tired of arguing this anymore. Sorry if I offended anyone.
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Postby colour wolf » Thu Feb 12, 2004 10:59 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Im tired of arguing this anymore. Sorry if I offended anyone.


No offense taken. Just thought that we were debating something. Weren't we?
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Postby EugeneStyles » Sun Feb 22, 2004 11:26 pm

What we need is a way to quanticize how much a pitcher helps your ERA based on how many innings he pitches. I posted a formula that will do the same thing for BA, a couple months ago, and it can be adapted easily to ERA.

The idea is, instead of using BA or ERA or WHIP as a category for picking your 5x5 teams, you replace the category with BA Imp, ERA Imp, and WHIP Imp. To calculate, for example, ERA Imp, use the following formula:

ERA Imp = IP * (ERA - MeanERA) / ((N -1) * MeanIP + IP)

where N is the number of pitchers on your pitching staff. I used N = 7.

I calculated, using only the top 100 pitchers (and thus, the meanERA and meanIP of the top 100 pitchers), and here are the top 25 sorted by ERA Imp (the top 25 for WHIP Imp are different, but similar):

<pre>
ERA Imp WHIP Imp
P.Martinez -0.181 -0.025 SP
J.Schmidt -0.177 -0.043 SP
K.Brown -0.171 -0.010 SP
E.Gagne -0.166 -0.039 RP
M.Prior -0.164 -0.017 SP
J.Smoltz -0.137 -0.020 RP
GMota -0.134 -0.020 RP
D.Marte -0.132 -0.011 RP
R.Cormier -0.131 -0.021 RP
S.Hasegawa -0.130 -0.007 RP
T.Hudson -0.129 -0.025 SP
B.Wagner -0.127 -0.026 RP
B.Donnelly -0.124 -0.009 SP
M.Rivera -0.113 -0.013 RP
L.Hawkins -0.109 -0.008 RP
K.Foulke -0.103 -0.025 RP
R.Soriano -0.093 -0.021 RP
E.Loaiza -0.085 -0.016 SP
B.Webb -0.080 -0.007 SP
O.Dotel -0.071 -0.018 RP
S.Shields -0.066 -0.001 RP
C.Schilling -0.059 -0.021 SP
H.Nomo -0.048 +0.010 SP
J.Borowski -0.047 -0.010 RP

</pre>
<p>
As you can see, the list is pretty evenly split up between starting and relief pitchers (I labelled them pretty quick, so one or two might be incorrect as to SP or RP designation). And most of the relievers above are actually closers.

So, it's not reasonable to say that closers are 1 category players or that they don't effect your ERA or WHIP much. And remember, you can keep your SP's out of games where they'll be shelled, but since it reduces both their ERA and their IP, the difference is not going to be all that huge.
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Postby colour wolf » Sun Feb 22, 2004 11:39 pm

Thanks for the list, EugeneStyles! ;-D

I agree 100% that Gagne and other top notch closers help as much in the ERA and WHIP categories as starters. Thanks for the stats to back it up!
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Postby EugeneStyles » Mon Feb 23, 2004 10:23 am

Yeah, basically the fact that the top relievers only face like 3 batters a game makes it easier for them to keep their ERA's down, and their extremely low ERA's makes up for the fact that they're not pitching as many innings.

If a starter finished the year with a 1.00 ERA, he would obviously be much better than any reliever, but that just doesn't happen any more.
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