abrunn11 wrote:The bottom line is that he is having a rookie (1/2) season like we have not seen in a long time, if ever, and he is doing it at a fairly scarce position.
Well, this is true if you consider 2 years to be a long time.
Jeff Francoeur's 2005 line was very similar to this, albeit less spectacular and only over 70 games. His HR pace was closer to 40 and his K/BB was a good bit worse, but the essentials are similar.
Sorry to be argumentative, but this was a surprising enough opinion that I had to check the numbers. I think it's kind of a stretch. Francoeur wins the Doubles battle; that's about it...
Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR 2007 MIL 81 328 61 109 19 5 24 2005 ATL 70 257 41 77 20 1 14
See, Charbonneau, Joe http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_charbonneau ........not saying Braun is the same, but the odds are MUCH higher that he regresses next year rather than bust out a 120/45/120/45/.320 kind of season. Not impossible, but HIGHLY improbable. I think it's:
Everyone on the Brewers was hot for a few months. As they have cooled off, so has Braun. His BABIP for August was back to a more realistic level (around .310) and his periph numbers were a little more in line with what I would expect next season (R/RBI would project out to be in the mid to low 90s). Even with the cooled off projections of around .290/30/90/90/15 he is in consideration for top 5 3B for next season and worth a late mid 3rd to 4th round pick. I doubt he will hang around that long though. He is Utley-lite at a position that runs 10 deep.
Is he going to put up over a whole season what he has done in his last 81 games? Probably not, almost definitely not. But don't sell him short either, his minor league and college numbers are fantastic.
Here is what I wrote in another thread regarding this topic:
In reference to braun, I am not really sure what you mean by "nothing like what he has done".
In 600ish College at bats he posted about a 1130ish OPS, with 45hrs, and about a .360 average.
This year in AAA. PA:134 AB:117 Runs:28 Hits:40 Doubles:12 Triples:0 Hrs:10 Rbi:22 Walk:15 SO:11 Avg:.342 OBP:.418 Slug:.701 OPS:1119 Sure as you pointed out, its a "small sample space" of only 134 plate appearances.
In 40 spring training abs he has 5 hrs, and a 1269 ops.
If not for one 200ab stint in A+ Brevard Ct. His minor League OPs would be just about 1050, with power numbers similar to his current major league numbers.(assuming some age appreciation, but not totally out of line.) Even still its .946
Obviously he is exceeding expectations, but there was never any question about his bat, and he has previously put up numbers of the caliber he is putting up now. This definitely isn't JJ hardy who had 1 hr every 50abs in the minors, and a minor league OPS of 737 in over 1100 plate appearances.
---- Go back and read any of the pre-season blogs/expert columns and Braun was widely considered to be one of the best if not the best/most polished bat in the minors to start the year.
Try this comparison: G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS 170 645 115 205 40 14 36 129 22 14 62 127 .318 .379 .591 970 199 768 131 240 61 6 42 144 34 12 69 152 .313 .374 .572 946 Braun
Is there a difference here, yeah... most people would probably rather have the guy on top. Also consider that the guy on top is Alex rodriguez. I am not trying to say he is, or will be Arod... of course not, Arod is and will go down as one of the best player ever. Braun does have some SERIOUS skills with the bat though.
Yes I do realize Arod was younger... but Braun definitely wasn't "too old" for his level and advanced very quickly through the minors.
I would probably take him him in the third round, depending on who came off the board.
As noted his Babip is coming down, and is around .370 now which is far more reasonable than it was a month ago. In addition his BB/K ratio is a bit concerning, but he is young still and can improve on that like most young guys with skills do. He also has pretty good speed, making him a reasonable 30/30-40/20 thread.
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