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Worth the time.......or let them sit?

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Postby timkell » Mon May 13, 2002 10:40 pm

I'd say he's worth it.

Someone else will definitely pick him up.

Now, it depends on how much closers are valued in your league. You've seen all of those posts, so I won't go into them. If they are valuable, you need to keep Julio, as Arlo said. If not, drop him. You're definitely upgrading.

If they are, drop Burks, no doubt, but Arlo is right in suggesting either Kearns or Burks.

The way I think, though, Burks is out, all the way: you know what Burks can do, which is somewhat decent. He's an injury risk, and his upside is not huge, but he'll be pretty solid. Kearns' upside is huge. He could end up being rookie of the year and blowing away Burks' numbers. If that happens you'll never forgive yourself! One other thing: it's unlikely someone will pick up Burks. Someone will DEFINITELY pick up Kearns. If the Reds are stupid and send him back to the minors, which I just cannot see happening, you could always waive Kearns then and get Burks back.

IMO, the possibility of allowing yourself to think you're a genius at the end of the season for picking up Kearns when you did makes him undroppable. He's done nothing but prove you right so far, so ride him out.

Go get Wickman!
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Postby Arlo » Tue May 14, 2002 6:04 am

This probably goes without saying, but timkell's two-for-one trade strategy is great, especially for a team such as mktgteach's with hardly any (or no) dead weight.

And I love the anonymous visitor's "faster than something that drops really fast" analogy! :-D Blackadder fan?
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Postby nkeitt » Tue May 14, 2002 12:18 pm

I am, in fact, a Blackadder fan (I don't know how I got logged out before posting that particular message).

I'm really new at fantasy baseball, and so I have to admit that I didn't quite get what you guys were saying earlier about a 2-for-1 trade and then picking up off the waiver wire. Can you explain it again, maybe with a theoretical example that runs all the way through (as in, what player you want off the waiver wire, who you'd deal, etc.). I am trying to get a handle on some trading strategies as that looks to be the only way I'll be able to improve my ptiching this year (unless I can nab Prior or someone as soon as Yahoo puts them into the system).

Thanks for the help and the education!

NK
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Postby Arlo » Tue May 14, 2002 12:33 pm

I knew I smelled a Blackadderism!

What timkell and mktgteach are refering to is a great strategy for improving your team. Let's say, for example, that your pitching staff consists of Wood, Morris, Vazquez, Oswalt and Zito (ok, so it's a small roster...). Josh Fogg is a free agent, and you really like him, but obviously you can't drop any of the guys you already have. You can, however, try to trade two of your sp's for an even better pitcher, for instance by offering the guy who owns Randy Johnson two of your guys for the Big Unit (this is just an example - I'm not worrying about who would win this trade). If the trade is accepted, you then have not only the best pitcher in the game, but also a free roster spot, which you then use to grab Fogg (faster than something that moves really fast :-D ). The risk, however, is that Fogg might be gone by the time a trade goes though, so this tactic can backfire on occasion. And in a case like this one, where waiver priorities have to be considered as well, it can make your head spin...

Any examples of trades you've pulled off this way, timkell and mktgteach (and anyone else who likes this approach)? Any cases where it backfired?
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Postby timkell » Tue May 14, 2002 1:31 pm

I'll tell you one time when it slightly backfired on me.

Last year I had kind of a weak staff. My ace was Hampton, and, thankfully, I had a bad feeling about him. It was early, but I liked Pujols. It didn't seem as if anyone in my league had caught on to him yet, as I was shocked he was still on the waiver wire. I thought that since he was still there, he would most likely be there in a couple of days, so I tried to trade Tino and Hampton (who, if you remember, started off pretty damn good last year) for Matt Morris. At the end of April, this seemed like a real good offer on my part to the other owner. Unfortunately, the guy with Morris was not that active of an owner, so I didn't hear back from him until like four days later. I still pulled the trade off, and I still think it was worth it, but Pujols was picked up by then. I was forced to be switching my first baseman constantly for the rest of the season, but I had Morris on my team! And who was on the waiver wire come September? Mike Hampton.

It would have been real nice, though, to get Pujols AND Morris! So what did I learn from this one? In a two for one trade, don't formally make the offer until you get agreement from the other owner and you know it will execute quickly. Keep track of the news wires. If the player on the waiver wire is getting more press and you really want him, be ready to give up on the trade and get him by dropping someone.

Sometimes you have to waive a player you know you could use for trade bait because they don't have enough value to risk letting that Pujols type player being picked up. Mid level players who should be on someone's roster usually take a long time to trade. Someone like Sabathia, who's cold right now, but should not be on the wire, is difficult to trade. If you have a real good feeling about Prior, for instance, sometimes you have to waive a guy like Sabathia. It hurts, but that's the price -and the fun- of being an owner!
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Postby EugeneStyles » Tue May 14, 2002 2:21 pm

I'm trying to pull one of these off in my league. I need a good catcher, with little to spare for a trade. So I offerred Brad Ausmus and Brett Tomko (with the proviso that he could substitute all but my best 2 pitchers instead of Tomko) for Michael Barrett (he has Piazza starting). The idea is to pick up Prior to cover the pitching hole.

Unfortunately he wants Nunez, and even though I'm not too high on Nunez, I'm afraid of how upset I might be later in the year if I give up Nunez for Barrett. So, I'm trying to see if he'll let me upgrade a Darryl Kile or Matt Clement or Brett Tomko as part of the deal.

Right now, I offerred Kile, Nunez, Ausmus for Barrett and either Odalis Perez or Russ Ortiz. I'm a little worried that Kile may be as bad as he's looked so far, making this a bad trade, but again I told him he could substitute another pitcher for Kile.

But yeah... the idea, at least originally, was to give him a good deal that would mean swapping backup catchers in order to get a decent #4 pitcher. Whereas for me, it basically would mean upgrading a catcher and making room for Prior.
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Postby nkeitt » Wed May 15, 2002 9:18 am

okay, that sounds like what I am trying to do with Nevin (though I may have to wait until he's playing again). Now that I picked up Hinske off the waiver wire, I am offering Nevin and one of my pitchers (except Pedro an Beckett) to try and grab another reliable starter. Except in this case rather than trying to pick someone up off the wire, I am trying to make room for Beckett to come off the DL.

Thanks for the clarification guys, I think I've got the idea now.

Peace,

NK
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