I'm looking ahead to the playoffs and thinking about what gives me the best possibility of winning (I'm currently 2nd in my 10-team H2H non-keeper). I'm thinking that, with a traditional strategy, that I can't beat the top team in my league, so I'm considering an unorthodox strategy if we meet up in the finals. Basically, I'm thinking about going very RP-heavy in the hopes that it would ensure that I win at least ERA and WHIP and possibly would give me an outside shot at K's.
I know I would punt wins but the guy I would be matching up against has better SP than me and I think dumping potential ERA & WHIP killers like Guthrie & Lowe in favor of guys like Carlos Marmol, Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton or Matt Guierrer could help me win those two crucial categories. I feel like I would also maintain an outside shot at K's with Santana, Lincecum, Verlander, Schilling and (hopefully) Sheets. He would probably win the saves category as well, unless Street and Lidge got on a roll that week. I'm thinking if I can sneak out with ERA & WHIP that I could beat him, as my offense is probably the best in the league and would probably make up for the 2-3 loss in the pitching categories.
I'm really scared that Guthrie and/or Lowe will drop a turd of a start (or two) during the championships and that I won't be able to recover. Plus, I think relievers are a little more consistent. Am I nuts or is this something that could be worth pursuing?
Wait, you have Santana, Lincecum, Sheets, Schilling, Verlander and Guthrie and you're telling me he's MUCH better than you in pitching?
What in God's name does he have? He'd have to be running Peavy, Zambrano, Bedard, C. Young, and Kazmir out there to look like he was much better than you.
With your SPs, I don't think I would do the strategy you are considering. Crazy things happen in H-2-H...any team can beat any other team in one week. All it would take would be one Lidge blow-up (and you can count on one of those every week) and there goes your whole strategy.
If you have some really bad starts by your SP, you can always resort to churning (assuming of course that there are no rules against it in your league) and win in the cats of Wins ands K's. I wouldnt commit to a different strategy becfore at least seeing how things play out during hte first couple days of the week.
Now, I could see you not starting Guthrie and/or Lowe if you happen to have a 2 start week for Santana and Verlander.
John Bonzo wrote:With your SPs, I don't think I would do the strategy you are considering. Crazy things happen in H-2-H...any team can beat any other team in one week. All it would take would be one Lidge blow-up (and you can count on one of those every week) and there goes your whole strategy.
If you have some really bad starts by your SP, you can always resort to churning (assuming of course that there are no rules against it in your league) and win in the cats of Wins ands K's. I wouldnt commit to a different strategy becfore at least seeing how things play out during hte first couple days of the week.
Now, I could see you not starting Guthrie and/or Lowe if you happen to have a 2 start week for Santana and Verlander.
He's right. Your strategy requires perfection from the pitchers you intend to use...
It doesn't require "perfection," but you're right in that it requires a high level of success.
I employed this strategy to a lesser degree in my Finals last year and won. I could start 4SP/1RP or 3SP/2RP. I went 3/2 and won against far better pitching. Of course, I had Putz & Saito and they had a good week, so take that for what it's worth.
I was using this strategy, but I have Putz, KRod, Aacardo, Corpas, and Embree - all of whom have been very good. It works better in my league though because we also count losses. So, I take L, SV, ERA, and WHIP, and punt Ks and W (don't fool yourself, you won't win Ks with RP). I've done this for several weeks now, and it has worked well, but I was disappointed that Kazmir was just riding my bench and I couldn't trade him. So, I went out and got Zambrano, Hamels, Webb, and Wagner by giving up Beltran, KRod and Embree. I'm also in 2nd, and the guy in 1st has a better offense than me, so splitting the pitching categories wasn't an option, I decided that I have to go for as many points as I can get in pitching, and hope my hitting holds up.
I like the strategy, and it has worked for me, but don't like it with the shaky RP you have, and the good SP you have. If you do decide to do this, I would suggest to drop a couple SP and go out and get the top middle relievers in free agency. The more innings you get, the less one bad outing will blow up your ratios. Also, keep an eye on his ratios, and if they blow up early, you may have a chance to throw a couple of your SP to try to take wins.
so basically, you'd just be using some relievers instead of Lowe & Guthrie, right?
that doesn't sound like a bad idea but H2H is quite...random - winner doesn't necessarily have the best team...so I wouldn't be afraid of him (especially with that staff you have).
H2H is like football - "I hope I have a good week 15 & 16"
Also depends on when the Guthrie and Lowe start would come and who they're against. If they're pitching against NYY or BOS, I'd say that it's a pretty safe bet to drop them for that final week for someone. If it's against lesser opponents they may still be useful. Especially if their starts come a little later in the week. That way you can start your studs, see what they do ERA/WHIP -wise, and see what your opponents team does... then you can make the decision whether to use them or not depending on how you're setting with categories.
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by mm92280 » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:49 pm 
