Snakes Gould wrote:does anyone just snicker to themselves whenever they see the milwaukee box scores and/or stat tracker every night. i cant help but chuckle at how great he is.
I used my #1 on Pence which was a good move. I tried a waiver on Braun but an owner with a higher priority got him. That owner has risen from about #13 in our 16 team league to #4. Pence helped me climb from the basement also but if I knew then what I know now, obviously I'd have waited for Braun.
So do I snicker to myself? No - I just get all jealous.
I did get him off waivers in a 10 man league I'm in and he turned my season around - I won't make the playoffs but I'll at least be respectable. To me Braun is a no-brainer top 20 next year and maybe top 15.
masterpinky0509 wrote:Considering he has roughly an 80% contact rate in the minors, and a similar one this year, I'd say that we should temper our expectations on him. His K:BB ratio is about 3:1, which is just not good. And his power is not otherworldly, despite what his stats say today.
I'm going to guess that next year he'll have an average around .290, with about 25 homers (yes, the entire year), 90 RBI and 100 R w/ about 20-25 SB. In fact, the SB will be where most of his value comes from. Now that being said, those kind of stats are definitely good enough to consider in the 3rd-4th rounds of most drafts, when coupled with his upside for significantly more stats.
We do have to temper the hype on him, however. He's not the 2nd coming of Albert Pujols, who had light-tower power combined with ludicrous plate discipline/coverage. That being said, he could very well be the 2nd coming of David Wright, since his tools are very similar. One should note that Wright looks more like a 25 homer guy right now than a guy who'll put up 35 year after year.
The one thing I'd like to point out is your comment on his power; it is close to otherworldly. I'd say if you ranked the top five RH by power, he would be in there. He's ridiculously strong as is, but his bat speed is INSANE. Pujols, ARod, MigCab ... those are the four guys I would say have better power than Braun from the right side. MAYBE Sheffield. But Braun has a ridiculous, ridiculous amount of power. I'm not sure what makes you say he doesn't have ludicrous power, but that is simply untrue.
Yeah, I strongly agree with everything Pinky is saying, other than the power part. I think that part of his game is pretty legitimate. I'm a big fan of Braun, but I see a 25-30/20 season in 08 - which is very valuable. I think 3rd round is where he should go, but I doubt he'll fall that low given how much people love the kid. Wright has very similar production, but he goes at the end of the first round because he has the track record. Rookies slump in their sophomore year all the time. Scouting reports make the rounds as the league adjusts.