BitterDodgerFan wrote:theres 2 types of people when it comes to braun. those who have, and those who have not...
True. And we can see which ones have hopped in this thread.
I'm sure I'm going to get piled on with each additional homer he hits. I'm just trying to play the sceptic, and it looks like his value is over-inflated to me. And I am apparently alone in this belief.
I think it's fair to say he's getting overpriced, but that's not to say he's an amazing talent any owner should love to get on his team next year.
I just traded for him in a keeper league (get to keep him at round 13! 10 team league), and I was negotiating for a week. I'm out of it this year, so I was building my resources for next year and trading with a contender. I managed to get a pretty reasonable price, but that was after a fierce debate with the other owner. He felt he should get Howard from me absolutely (I also get Howard next year in round 6).
I told him there was no way I would do that. Howard has proven his ability to clobber NL pitching for two full seasons. He's also proven his ability to persevere through and reverse a slump with full authority. Braun has not yet had to go through any adjustment periods, and he's quite young.
There's no point in trading someone like Braun right now for a solid first rounder because you're paying for potential. Potential should get a discount. Proven performance for several years should get full price.
Those who own Braun took no risk in getting him, so all they see is the reward side and think he's worth a 1st rounder. Those who don't have him now have to weigh his potential vs. what they'd have to give up to get him, and there is never any good point in trading a top 20 guy three years running for a top 5 guy 3 months running. You're taking on all the risk and getting pretty much zero reward. You already have a stud yourself. Keep him. And tell the Braun owner, if that's the price you want for him, enjoy him because it's too much to give up for a young player. If you give up a first or second rounder in a trade for him, all he can do is perform to the price you paid, and winning in FLB requires getting guys to give you MORE than you paid for them.
Now by the end of the season, we may all be saying, "well, he kept it up and never slowed down." If so, he's gone by end of round 2 next year for sure. If you want him, that's what you'll have to pay. Some other perennial top 20s have probably moved themselves down for next year already too:
Ortiz, Manny, Vlad for instance. They're getting older, and some signs of getting long in the tooth are becoming increasingly evident. The new crop is knocking on the door.