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Ryan Braun hype control

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Re: Ryan Braun hype control

Postby Ursa » Wed Aug 08, 2007 1:01 pm

Let's not assume all leagues are 10 teams - the use of "first round" or "second round" really is irrelevant when considering a player's projected draft position unless the league size is considered. More relevant are the posts where Braun is described as "top 20". Assuming he keeps this up through the end of the year, or drops off a little, he's definitely in consideration for first round in my 16 team league. I like the post where his stats are projected as 75% of current for next year - even that drop off makes him a legitimate selection option at 1.16 or 2.01, which is where I prefer to pick.
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Re: Ryan Braun hype control

Postby markj11 » Wed Aug 08, 2007 1:09 pm

Ursa wrote:Let's not assume all leagues are 10 teams - the use of "first round" or "second round" really is irrelevant when considering a player's projected draft position unless the league size is considered. More relevant are the posts where Braun is described as "top 20". Assuming he keeps this up through the end of the year, or drops off a little, he's definitely in consideration for first round in my 16 team league. I like the post where his stats are projected as 75% of current for next year - even that drop off makes him a legitimate selection option at 1.16 or 2.01, which is where I prefer to pick.


I thought it was common logic to use the term first round as in what is the most standard league, 12 teams. There is no need to explain "I am in a 5 team league and I would not take him in the first round."
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Re: Ryan Braun hype control

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Wed Aug 08, 2007 1:57 pm

theres 2 types of people when it comes to braun. those who have, and those who have not...
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Re: Ryan Braun hype control

Postby Whisp » Wed Aug 08, 2007 2:42 pm

here are the players i think are currently more valuable than braun:

Alex Rodriguez
Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
Miguel Cabrera
Ryan Howard
Jose Reyes
Grady Sizemore
Johan Santana
Matt Holliday
Carl Crawford
Russell Martin

here are the players i have rated equal to braun:
Prince Fielder
Jake Peavy
Carlos Beltran
Ichiro Suzuki
Victor Martinez
Ryan Braun!
David Ortiz

here are the players slightly lower than braun:
Carlos Zambrano
Erik Bedard
J.J. Putz
Carlos Lee
David Wright
Roy Oswalt
Joe Nathan
Francisco Rodriguez
Justin Morneau

consider Utley & Soriano on DL might not be back, if they come back in time, Utley is higher than Braun, Soriano is equal
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SP-Sabathia/ClLee/Wainwright/Pineda/Hellickson/JSantana
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Re: Ryan Braun hype control

Postby duckbillgates » Wed Aug 08, 2007 3:35 pm

BitterDodgerFan wrote:theres 2 types of people when it comes to braun. those who have, and those who have not...


True. And we can see which ones have hopped in this thread. ;-)

I'm sure I'm going to get piled on with each additional homer he hits. I'm just trying to play the sceptic, and it looks like his value is over-inflated to me. And I am apparently alone in this belief.
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Re: Ryan Braun hype control

Postby cards05 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:49 am

This article hits the nail on the head regarding Braun. It discusses how his average will go down, but his power is legit and he will be a top 5 3b next year.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fanta ... real-deal/
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Re: Ryan Braun hype control

Postby The Artful Dodger » Thu Aug 09, 2007 1:04 pm

Whisp wrote:here are the players i think are currently more valuable than braun:

Russell Martin


Really? Martin doesn't have the power potential Braun possesses and as his career progresses, he could run less; backstops have a tendency to run very sparingly at the least.

For the record, Braun is reasonably a 2nd round quality player, 1st round if you prorate his season along. Braun could carry greater risk to regress because of a smaller sample size of AB's, but then again, even your top-tier bats with the track records in Ortiz, Manny, Berkman, and Beltran have regressed to a certain extent. That's beside the point though, as Braun's power is real given his track record at the collegiate and the minor league levels to hit for prodigious power and average...but when you have certain hitters for his position such as Atkins and A-Ram that are flying under the radar with respect to Braun, you could argue for taking a more proven bat (your Vlads, your Mannys basically) over Braun and hoping to fill your 3B with the likes of Atkins, A-Ram, or Zimmerman later. Not saying there isn't virtue in valuing Braun as a top-tier player though because even B.J. Upton is lauded as a top 2-3 round quality player as well.

It should be interesting to see where Braun is taken in mock drafts next year. ;-D
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Re: Ryan Braun hype control

Postby Secret Avatar » Thu Aug 09, 2007 1:37 pm

What's the fun of fantasy baseball if not to brag about the studs you picked up on the cheap and agonize over the ones that got away? As for Braun, I hesitated grabbing him off the FA list because I had been earlier burned by Alex Gordon and other hyped rookies. Some other guy took the chance and scooped him up. That sound you hear is my foot kicking my own @ss. :-B
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Re: Ryan Braun hype control

Postby pokerplaya » Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:12 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:What's the fun of fantasy baseball if not to brag about the studs you picked up on the cheap and agonize over the ones that got away? As for Braun, I hesitated grabbing him off the FA list because I had been earlier burned by Alex Gordon and other hyped rookies. Some other guy took the chance and scooped him up. That sound you hear is my foot kicking my own @ss. :-B


Indeed. I used my #1 waiver on Butler instead of Braun. Skipped Pence, and didn't wait for Braun. Wow, am I an idiot. :~(
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Re: Ryan Braun hype control

Postby noseeum » Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:30 pm

duckbillgates wrote:
BitterDodgerFan wrote:theres 2 types of people when it comes to braun. those who have, and those who have not...


True. And we can see which ones have hopped in this thread. ;-)

I'm sure I'm going to get piled on with each additional homer he hits. I'm just trying to play the sceptic, and it looks like his value is over-inflated to me. And I am apparently alone in this belief.


I think it's fair to say he's getting overpriced, but that's not to say he's an amazing talent any owner should love to get on his team next year.

I just traded for him in a keeper league (get to keep him at round 13! 10 team league), and I was negotiating for a week. I'm out of it this year, so I was building my resources for next year and trading with a contender. I managed to get a pretty reasonable price, but that was after a fierce debate with the other owner. He felt he should get Howard from me absolutely (I also get Howard next year in round 6).

I told him there was no way I would do that. Howard has proven his ability to clobber NL pitching for two full seasons. He's also proven his ability to persevere through and reverse a slump with full authority. Braun has not yet had to go through any adjustment periods, and he's quite young.

There's no point in trading someone like Braun right now for a solid first rounder because you're paying for potential. Potential should get a discount. Proven performance for several years should get full price.

Those who own Braun took no risk in getting him, so all they see is the reward side and think he's worth a 1st rounder. Those who don't have him now have to weigh his potential vs. what they'd have to give up to get him, and there is never any good point in trading a top 20 guy three years running for a top 5 guy 3 months running. You're taking on all the risk and getting pretty much zero reward. You already have a stud yourself. Keep him. And tell the Braun owner, if that's the price you want for him, enjoy him because it's too much to give up for a young player. If you give up a first or second rounder in a trade for him, all he can do is perform to the price you paid, and winning in FLB requires getting guys to give you MORE than you paid for them.

Now by the end of the season, we may all be saying, "well, he kept it up and never slowed down." If so, he's gone by end of round 2 next year for sure. If you want him, that's what you'll have to pay. Some other perennial top 20s have probably moved themselves down for next year already too:
Ortiz, Manny, Vlad for instance. They're getting older, and some signs of getting long in the tooth are becoming increasingly evident. The new crop is knocking on the door.
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