Am I alone in thinking things are getting out of hand?
I cannot argue with his amazing stat line, but there is one that I think people are overlooking: 66 games played.
He's being talked about as a potential second-round pick here based on less than half a season.
He is being compared to David Wright and Albert Pujols based on less than 300 at-bats.
I personally would be dealing Braun in a keeper league if I could get a sure-fire second-round talent. Am I missing the boat on this kid?
"All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well supported in logic and argument than others." — Douglas Adams (1952-2001)
Totally. And no, I'm not dealing him and his 6 year $6 contract in my dynasty league anytime soon. I actually stopped talks about ARod when Braun's name was mentioned in return. What he's doing as a rookie are remarkable and he has the history to suggest it's not a fluke.
He's being compared to David Wright and Albert Pujols in their rookie seasons. The comparables are there. Obviously you have to keep in mind that he's only played half a season, but everything I've read says that its legit - he is a 5-category guy who hits to all fields with power. If you're talking about 3-4 weeks, that's an insignificant sample, but 3-4 months is getting to the point where you have to say "wow, this guy looks legit". Obviously his extreme success against lefties cannot be sustained (.486 BA!?!?!?) but there's no reason to think he's not on his way to Top 10 status. He's had success in the minors, was drafted high, and has been very much on the radar all along. As for second round value next year, that comes down to personal taste for risk - if you think he can maintain this type of play next year then he's well worth it... most prefer to go with a more proven guy in the Top 3 rounds which makes a lot of sense. Myself, I don't really care because I get to keep him in the 11th round next year
"The government cannot give to anyone anything that it does not first take from someone else"
Bloody Sox wrote:He's being compared to David Wright and Albert Pujols in their rookie seasons.
I see more emphasis on rookie than on season. That's my point. Basically that if someone wants to project his outstanding 40 percent of a season over a full year, they're making a mistake. I don't doubt that he's going to be a great option at 3B for years to come.
Still, that K/BB ratio isn't pretty. I think Pence would have come back down to Earth if he hadn't been injured, and I think Braun will do the same.
That having been said, I pulled up his Yahoo! page and saw this amazing stat.
Against Jeff Francis, Braun has an OPS of 3.333. But once again, there's that sample size ...
"All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well supported in logic and argument than others." — Douglas Adams (1952-2001)
It's hard to control the hype when the guy just won't quit. I agree that his perceived value is ridiculously high right now but until I see him slow down, I just can't disregard his performance as a fluke. From what I've seen he has a tremendous bat speed that generates a ton of power and his college/minor league numbers indicate that he can be an offensive superstar. He was a 5th overall pick and a top 10 prospect to start this season so he definitely has the pedigree. For now, I have him on my keeper team and I will enjoy this streak. Hopefully into next year as well. I have no doubt that he will be a top 25 player as soon as 2008.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Well, the thing is that even if Braun "comes down to earth" (let's say his "norm" is at 75% of his current level) his numbers projected over a full season would be in the Top 25 range. In fact, just do that...
- If you projected his current numbers out to 162 games, he'd get to: 51 HR, 127 R, 132 RBI, .346 average, and 24 steals. - If you assumed he would perform at "75%" levels over 162 games, he'd be at 38 HRs, 95 R, 99 RBI, 18 S, and I don't know what his average would be... .310 maybe?
Those numbers are easily Top 25.
Compare his current numbers now to David Wright's rookie season: Wright: 69 G, 14 HR, 41 R, 44 RBI, 6 S, .293 Braun: 66 G, 21 HR, 52 R, 54 RBI, 10 S, .346
I distinctly recall Wright going in the Top 4-5 rounds of drafts in 2005 after that rookie season, followed by him being a Top 10 pick in 2006 and 2007. Braun is outperforming Wright in a big way right now, so its reasonable to think he'd go in the Top 2-3 rounds next year.
Ryan Braun is talked about on here more than anyone, and there seems to be two schools of thought. With many, the dividing line is likely whether you are lucky enough to have him on your team or not. I will admit, I was lucky enough to get him in a keeper and he'll only use up a 15th round pick.
I certainly don't think Braun can keep this up. But I do think it's completely realistic to project him as a top 20 (late second round) player in a keeper league. As players get older and their skills decline, younger players replace them as top 10-15 picks. Quite obviously, these players come from the minors. And looking at Ryan Braun's body of work and prospect status, why in the world do some people find it so apalling that he is being labeled a future David Wright with even more upside.
Those who are saying we only have 40% of one season to evaluate him are being just as foolish (statistically) as those that are using only 40% of one season to evaluate him. We've got plenty more than that.
Another dividing line - keepers where you're locked in to some round (or sliding round) or dollar amount that you keep the guy in, and other leagues.
In all other leagues, Braun looks like he has the potential to be a top-10 player for years to come. Of course there's a lot of risk due to his small sample size, so if I were to get an Arod out of him, I'd jump at the chance. That said, just having risk doesn't completely discount the fact that he's got HUGE top-end potential that he's shown and that can be realized soon. Like the past couple months. At the very least you'll need to spend a 3rd round pick on him for 2008 in redrafts (barring some bizarro injury or slump). Risk v reward, folks... and he's got both in spades.
In keepers leagues where Braun could be a teens round or low-$ keeper for years, he's gold! Absolute gold I tells ye!
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by duckbillgates » Wed Aug 08, 2007 9:39 am 
