I just started thinking about the fact 90% of fans are saying ARod will break the record. I decided to look back at some career stats for players and found this as the best proof you can never know how careers will progress:
At age 27 (Pujol's current age), Bonds was on pace for 497 HR if he played until his current age of 43.
At age 27, Pujols is on pace for 936(!!!!!!) HR if he plays until age 43.
The funny part is if you correct for the same amount of power improvement later in their career as Bonds, Pujols numbers are so silly I won't even post them.
The point is, I think Bond's record will stand much less time than Aaron's did. However, I don't think it'll certainly be Arod who ends up holding it. If I had to place money, I'd bet it'd be on some kid who comes into the league as an amazing hitter at an early age and fills out, much like Bonds did.
byfrcp wrote:Lol at "fills out, much like Bonds did."
Yeah, I know. I didn't want to bring up the roids thing. Obviously, Bond's was NOT a power guy like Pujols early on. Whether it was effort, genetics, or roids, he came into his power. Maybe Pujols will start hitting sliders 600' instead of 500' by 35.
A Rod will break the record ( if he stays healty ), and then Pujols will break his (if he stays healthy) main issue of all this is health ... we all know talent wise guys like A Rod and Pujols can break the record, but if they get injured like Griffey did, you can forget about that record.
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by tinfoilxtouch » Wed Aug 08, 2007 7:40 am 
