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Why nobody should "project" anyone to break HR record...

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Why nobody should "project" anyone to break HR record...

Postby tinfoilxtouch » Wed Aug 08, 2007 7:40 am

I just started thinking about the fact 90% of fans are saying ARod will break the record. I decided to look back at some career stats for players and found this as the best proof you can never know how careers will progress:

At age 27 (Pujol's current age), Bonds was on pace for 497 HR if he played until his current age of 43.

At age 27, Pujols is on pace for 936(!!!!!!) HR if he plays until age 43.

The funny part is if you correct for the same amount of power improvement later in their career as Bonds, Pujols numbers are so silly I won't even post them.

The point is, I think Bond's record will stand much less time than Aaron's did. However, I don't think it'll certainly be Arod who ends up holding it. If I had to place money, I'd bet it'd be on some kid who comes into the league as an amazing hitter at an early age and fills out, much like Bonds did.
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Re: Why nobody should "project" anyone to break HR record...

Postby byfrcp » Wed Aug 08, 2007 7:45 am

Lol at "fills out, much like Bonds did."
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Re: Why nobody should "project" anyone to break HR record...

Postby tinfoilxtouch » Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:01 am

byfrcp wrote:Lol at "fills out, much like Bonds did."


Yeah, I know. I didn't want to bring up the roids thing. Obviously, Bond's was NOT a power guy like Pujols early on. Whether it was effort, genetics, or roids, he came into his power. Maybe Pujols will start hitting sliders 600' instead of 500' by 35. :-D
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Re: Why nobody should "project" anyone to break HR record...

Postby partibrejker » Wed Aug 08, 2007 9:29 am

A Rod will break the record ( if he stays healty ), and then Pujols will break his (if he stays healthy)
main issue of all this is health ... we all know talent wise guys like A Rod and Pujols can break the record, but if they get injured like Griffey did, you can forget about that record.
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Re: Why nobody should "project" anyone to break HR record...

Postby great gretzky » Wed Aug 08, 2007 9:36 am

Arod needs like 33 per year until he is 40 (If we figure bonds doesn't just stop right now). I don't think it is a given.
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Re: Why nobody should "project" anyone to break HR record...

Postby bdrotoronto » Wed Aug 08, 2007 10:18 am

If A-Rod or Pujols freely start taking a whole bunch of 'stuff' when they turn 35, then I will like their chances.

Otherwise it is kinda unfair.
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You've got a hat and a bat, And that's not all..
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Re: Why nobody should "project" anyone to break HR record...

Postby acsguitar » Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:40 pm

Arod= Much better shape the Pujols
I'm too lazy to make a sig at the moment
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Re: Why nobody should "project" anyone to break HR record...

Postby pdlata » Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:50 pm

If Albert Pujols and Arod were placed side by side I would guess that Arod was younger. (not knowing who they were or their ages)
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Re: Why nobody should "project" anyone to break HR record...

Postby Morneau33 » Wed Aug 08, 2007 1:00 pm

Ryan Braun will break it. :-D
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Re: Why nobody should "project" anyone to break HR record...

Postby DevilDriver » Wed Aug 08, 2007 1:34 pm

acsguitar wrote:Arod= Much better shape the Pujols


Just because ARod's build is thinner doesn't mean he's in better shape..
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